Hedo Turkoglu

If Turkoglu does not get cut before the season starts, the reasons are likely to be entirely managerial and financial. Even if Turk makes the final 15-man roster, he is unlikely to see scrub time, which Vaughn and the Magic would prefer go to young players with a future.

Turkoglu, 31, has steadily declined in production over the last few years, culminating in 10.9 points per game last season. Turkoglu hasn’t actually put up good numbers since 2008-09, but Jacque Vaughn will be expecting him to make plays in the dribble-penetration offense, and Turk reportedly showed up to camp in great shape. The most important thing for Turkoglu, though, will be his shooting, which was unusually abysmal last season.

Turkoglu had a topsy-turvy season in 2010-11. He was traded from the Raptors to Phoenix in the offseason, and his career path came full circle in December when he was traded from the dimming Suns to the confused Magic. It was the only trade scenario that made sense for Turkoglu. Orlando was struggling to re-establish the special style of play that got them to the NBA Finals in 2008-09 season, and Turkoglu was a big part of that run. That, and the need to appease 2012 free-agent-to-be Dwight Howard, motivated the team to re-acquire Turkoglu and Jason Richardson for Marcin Gortat and Vince Carter. While the trade seemed desperate, it worked out for fantasy purposes. Turkoglu was averaging just 9.5 points and 2.3 assists in 25 minutes per game for the Suns, but coach Stan Van Gundy played Turkoglu 34 minutes per game and asked him to fill a prominent point-forward role for the team once again. Turkoglu responded, averaging 11.4 points, 4.6 rebounds, 5.1 assists, 1.5 three-pointers, 1.0 steal, 0.4 blocks, and 1.8 turnovers through 56 games with the Magic. He should reprise that role this year, though at 32, his best years are likely behind him.

After a successful run in Orlando that saw him raise his profile from skilled role player to legitimate all-around talent, Turkoglu agreed to a five-year, $53 million deal with Toronto in July of 2009. While there were some questions raised about the length and overall value of the contract, it was generally assumed in fantasy circles that he would be able to post a line pretty similar to his last season in Orlando, if not the career-high numbers (including 19.5 points per game) he'd posted in 2007-08. As it turned out, he was able to match neither season, scoring five fewer points per game than the season prior, seeing modest declines in most other cats, and generally disappointing. More than anything, the culprit was a drop in minutes. After playing 36-37 per game the previous two seasons, Turkoglu averaged only 30.7 minutes in 2009-10. That alone is likely responsible for his minor drop in assists and rebounds. The more curious thing is the dramatic drop in shots for Turkoglu upon his move to Toronto: last season, he averaged four fewer field goal attempts per game (including one fewer three-point attempt) and two fewer free-throw attempts than in the season before. With Turkoglu's move to Phoenix this offseason, however, there's reason for optimism, as the Suns' fast-paced offense has acted as a tonic to more than one player's fantasy numbers. His upside is probably much closer to his last season in Orlando than the excellent 2007-08 one. That probably makes him a fine pick in the middle rounds.

Turkoglu regressed a bit last season after his career-best 2007-08 campaign, but still produced the second-best fantasy year of his career by a decent margin. He averaged 17 points, five assists, five boards, and two treys per game; a combo rarely matched outside of the elite. Turkoglu played as a 6-10 point forward for the Magic, and with his height and shooting ability was able to force opponents to react to him even without the quickness that wings usually need to break down defenses. This offseason Turkoglu left Orlando for the Raptors, a move with some risk but also nice upside. The Raptors have been built as a north-of-the-border alternative to the Mike D’Antoni Suns, playing a Euro-style game of ball-movement and perimeter scoring that should be a good fit for Turkoglu’s skill set. On the down-side, Jose Calderon is the playmaker for the Raptors which likely cuts into Turkoglu’s assist totals. On the positive side, this likely means more open shots and an increase in both field goal percentage (41.3% FG) and threes made. On the whole, expect Turkoglu to be a valuable roto producer even if in slightly different ways than what he did in Orlando.

Orlando’s signing of Rashard Lewis last summer was almost universally panned. “Too much money,” they said. “Besides, Orlando’s already got a 6-10 guy that likes to stand in the corner and hoist jumpers.” Little did we know -- there is so much more to Hedo Turkoglu’s game. Turkoglu emerged as a poor man’s Magic Johnson last season, displaying previously unknown passing skills and floor leadership, initiating the offense and setting new career highs in just about every statistical category on his way to the NBA’s Most Improved Player award. And that skill gives Orlando tremendous lineup flexibility – they can get away with a smallish score-first point guard like Jameer Nelson and a somewhat undersized, perimeter-oriented four like Rashard Lewis on the floor because of Turkoglu’s unique combination of size and skill. Orlando is returning with its lineup and rotation more or less intact, so look for more of the same from Turkoglu this year.

The addition of Rashard Lewis likely spells the end of Turkoglu’s run as a starter for the Magic… and possibly his tenure with the team. Turkoglu started all 73 games he played last year, using his excellent size (6-10) and sweet jumper to generate solid point, assist, three and board totals. But his game is very similar to Lewis’ – even down to the places where they’re most comfortable setting up for shots. That likely means a substantial reduction in minutes from the 31 or so Turkoglu played last year, and a similar decrease in overall productivity.

Turkoglu is a poor-man's Dirk Nowitski who is capable of putting up pretty decent stats. He is good for 12 and 5 a game with high shooting percentages, whose numbers can improve if/when he becomes the starter once Hill gets hurt again. He is a valuable fantasy asset as he is eligible at both forward and guard.

Turkoglu is a big time sleeper candidate. In his first year with the Magic, he had career highs in scoring, assists, and minutes per game. The biggest hurdle in his way is Grant Hill, but if the Magic struggle and Grant Hill plays well, Hill may be traded at the deadline. Even if Hill stays on, Turkoglu is a nice late round pick who can provide great three point shooting from the forward spot, while also giving average rebounding and scoring.

Turkoglu has decided to leave a championship-caliber team in San Antonio and join the lowly Orlando Magic. Assuming that Grant Hill's latest comeback doesn't pan out, Turkoglu should start at small forward. But with Cuttino Mobley and Steve Francis handling backcourt duties, Turkoglu will find it tough to get regular shot attempts. Moreover, if the Magic decide that Dwight Howard's not ready to play the four, he could cut into Turkoglu's minutes at the three. All that said, Turkoglu is capable of scoring 14-16 ppg in the right circumstances, and he could also be a nice source of threes for the forward spot.

Turkoglu will be battling for a starting role on the Spurs throughout training camp. At 6-10, he isn't your average jump-shooter, but the NBA's only Turksman hopes to be collecting open shots off Tim Duncan double-teams all season long. His production will depend on how many minutes he earns. He's been averaging around 20 minutes a game, if he can get that closer to 30 minutes he could have a breakout season, but the Spurs talent and focus on Duncan should keep Turkoglu around 25 minutes a night and slightly improved production from last year.