John Collins

Collins spent the first six years of his career in Atlanta. He peaked in 2019-20 while averaging 21.6 points, 10.1 rebounds and 1.6 blocks, but he went on a downward trajectory after that. He became the topic of trade rumors for years and was finally dealt to the Jazz last summer in what essentially amounted to a salary dump. There was some hope for a bounceback season, and the results were mixed. His numbers were especially underwhelming to start the year, going most of the way through January. However, he stepped up his game at the end of the month, and for his final 27 appearances, he averaged 17.1 points, 9.7 rebounds, 1.3 assists and 1.0 blocks while shooting 58/40/79. The Jazz have become a difficult team to analyze for fantasy. They've pulled the plug toward the end of each of the past two seasons, creating well-timed absences for key players. It doesn't project to be any different this year. Lauri Markkanen signed a massive extension that prevents him from being traded at the deadline, but the rumors were still out there that the front office was looking to send him to a more competitive team. As it stands, Utah could easily be considered a bottom-two team in the conference, along with Portland. Will all of that be good or bad for Collins? He just happened to miss the final eight games of last season with back spasms, at the exact same time that Jordan Clarkson had a back injury and Markkanen had a shoulder injury. But Collins also played well when available in the second half of the year. And this is before considering the potential for Walker Kessler and Taylor Hendricks to develop and take minutes away from Collins. With all that in mind, it's probably not worth the risk to select Collins significantly inside the top 100. After that, the risk/reward balance becomes more favorable.

Collins, who signed a four-year, $98.4 million extension with Atlanta ahead of the 2021-22 campaign, had been the rumor of trade talks for years, and he was finally dealt this offseason. It'll be interesting to see how Utah divvies up playing time in a frontcourt that consists of Collins, Lauri Markkanen, Walker Kessler and Kelly Olynyk. But Collins figures to have a bit more fantasy upside for the Jazz than he did with the Hawks, who relied heavily on Trae Young, Dejounte Murray and others to create plays off the dribble. Collins' deal also includes a $26.6 million player option for 2025-26, so Utah has plenty of incentive to give him as much usage as he can handle. Collins' production peaked in 2019-20, posting 21.6 points, 10.1 rebounds and 1.6 blocks in 33.3 minutes per game -- all career highs -- but he played in only 41 games that season. The 25-year-old's production has since decreased across the board in three straight campaigns, and he finished with 13.1 points, 6.5 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 1.0 blocks and 0.6 steals in 30.0 minutes per game across 71 appearances last year. Collins shot 50.8 percent from the field and 29.2 percent from three -- both career lows -- during his final season in Atlanta. Markkanen, the reigning MIP, figures to lead the Jazz again next season, while Jordan Clarkson handles his usual score-first role. Add in a healthy Collin Sexton plus a trio of rookies (Taylor Hendricks, Keyonte George and Brice Sensabaugh), and there's not much usage to go around. However, if Collins is entrusted to do more, and he reclaims his three-point efficiency, the 6-foot-9 forward can have a resurgent campaign with his new squad.

Though rumors have swirled that Collins isn't happy in Atlanta, he remains on the team heading into 2022-23. His role has significantly decreased from 2019-20, when he was shockingly the 12th-best fantasy player on a per-game basis in eight-category leagues. Now, he's settled into a complementary role at power forward next to Clint Capela as the Hawks filled out the rest of the roster with playmakers and other scoring options. That's resulted in him ranking 62nd and 61st, respectively, over the past two seasons. Last year, he averaged 16.2 points on 53/36/79 shooting, 7.8 rebounds, 1.8 assists and 1.0 blocks in 30.8 minutes. His proficiency as a lob threat and three-point shooter keeps him constantly involved in the offense, though he's not often the first choice for either play. This season, his role isn't expected to change. The Hawks made a significant change in the offseason by acquiring Dejounte Murray to pair next to Trae Young, but the move shouldn't affect Collins. He's a high-floor option, but his ceiling is capped until he moves away from Atlanta.

With the Hawks adding Clint Capela and Danilo Gallinari as frontcourt options last season, Collins wasn't called upon as much as he was in 2019-20. As a result, he saw most of his numbers take a dip. The big man saw 29.3 minutes per game and averaged 17.6 points, 7.4 rebounds, 1.2 assists and 1.5 combined blocks-plus-steals. Though his box score stats dropped, Collins remained one of the most efficient shooters in the league. He posted a 56/40/83 shooting line, translating into a true shooting percentage of 64.5% -- good for 16th in the NBA. Those numbers resulted in Collins ranking 62nd in fantasy on a per-game basis -- a good mark but much worse than his 2019-20 campaign, when he ranked 12th overall. Despite his role being reduced, the Hawks committed to Collins during free agency, signing him to a five-year, $125 million deal. Atlanta is bringing back almost the exact same roster in 2021-22, so fantasy managers should expect Collins to put up similar numbers. With that being the case, he's a solid investment in the late fourth round onward.

Fantasy managers who drafted Collins in 2019-20 were burned by his early-season, 25-game suspension. However, his per-game stats were excellent, ranking him 12th in eight-category leagues. In 33.2 minutes per game, the big man averaged 21.6 points, 10.1 rebounds, 1.6 blocks, 1.5 assists and 1.4 three-pointers. Collins was efficient, as well, shooting 58.3 percent from the field, 40.1 from downtown and 80.0 from the free-throw line -- good for the sixth-highest true-shooting percentage (66.0) in the NBA. Collins' role may shift heading into 2020-21, however, as the Hawks added Clint Capela to the mix, which will likely mean more time on the perimeter for Collins on both offense and defense. An increase in threes can be expected, but a possible decrease in raw stats could be in store with the Hawks building a more balanced roster, also adding Bogdan Bogdanovic and Danilo Gallinari. Even so, with one of the best passers in the league in Trae Young at the helm in Atlanta, Collins should still be able to find his way into easy points around the basket and in transition.

A preseason ankle injury delayed Collins' 2018-19 debut until Nov. 17. He went on to play 61 games for the Hawks, of which he started 59. The Wake Forest product has been impressive through his first two years in the league, and he quietly averaged 19.5 points, 9.8 rebounds and 2.0 assists on 56.0 percent shooting last season. The only other player 21 years old or younger to average those numbers since the three-point era is Shaquille O'Neal. At 6-foot-10 and 235 pounds, Collins has been primarily used as a power forward. But he's played 28% of his career minutes at center, and he may continue seeing spot run at the position given his athleticism and still-in-progress three-point range. In 2018-19, he shot 34.8 percent from long range on 2.6 attempts per game. Expanding his shot is one of the main stepping stones for Collins' development, as is his defense. While he averaged 1.6 blocks per 36 minutes as a rookie, that number dipped to 0.8 blocks per 36 minutes as a sophomore. Even if Collins is already at his ceiling, he's showing off the ability to play at an All-Star level, and there's a chance he'll fall in fantasy drafts due to lack of name recognition.

Due to the Hawks' roster construction and expected path back to the lottery, Collins was one of the more intriguing rookie prospects after being selected in the first round of last year's draft. While he opened the season in a bench role behind Ersan Ilyasova, the Hawks ultimately bought out the veteran in February and elevated Collins into the top unit once their playoff hopes were out of reach. The 6-foot-10 big man would go on to start 26 games, a stretch where he averaged 11.2 points 7.9 rebounds and 2.0 assists across 28.4 minutes. Those numbers were all slightly up from the 10.5 points, 7.3 rebounds and 1.3 assists across 24.1 minutes that Collins averaged for the entire year (74 games). In addition, Collins was a capable rim protector with 1.1 blocks per contest and shot 57.6 percent from the field. He only knocked down 16 total three-pointers and was a 71.5 percent free-throw shooter, though, so there are a few aspects of his game that are still a work in progress. However, Collins has high expectations going into his second year in the league. Ilyasova won't be in his way for the first half of the season and Mike Muscala was traded to the Sixers over the summer, meaning Collins has as clear a path to playing time as possible. A role surpassing 30.0 minutes a night seems likely, so the 20-year-old's numbers will certainly be on the rise. Averaging a double-double isn't out of the question, which means Collins is going to head into the year as one of the more intriguing breakout candidates. Look for him to be a very strong mid-to-late-round option if he falls that far and it wouldn't be surprising if Fantasy owners elected to pay up a bit considering his potential upside.

Collins recently finished up his sophomore season at Wake Forest, where he had a breakout campaign and averaged 19.2 points, 9.7 rebounds and 1.6 blocks across 26.6 minutes per game. That boosted his stock enough to declare early for the 2017 NBA Draft and he was eventually selected by the Hawks with the 19th overall pick. In college, he proved to be extremely athletic for his size at 6-foot-10 and was one of the better rebounders in the nation. He certainly needs to add strength to his frame in order to matchup with some of the bigger power forwards and centers in the league, but Collins still has impressive potential if he's able to put everything together. He needs some work on the offensive side of the ball as well despite being a capable mid-range shooter at Wake Forest. Most of his work comes around the rim and he hasn't displayed any sort of three-point shot at all, so Collins will eventually need to extend to the perimeter in order to fit into today's NBA landscape. Still, Collins is going into one of the best situations of this year's rookie class. The Hawks no longer have Paul Millsap or Dwight Howard, and they didn't do much in free agency to replace the two. Ersan Ilyasova is currently the favorite to open the season as the team's starting power forward and Collins should slot in as the backup if he's able to jump Luke Babbitt on the depth chart right away like expected. With the Hawks highly unlikely to make the playoffs, Collins will certainly be a candidate to get extended run and that could even develop into a starting role later in the season if he develops quicker than expected. Either way, Collins should have a relatively easy path to playing time, making him one of the more intriguing rookie options.