Christian Kirk Odds for 2025

ANALYSIS
Kirk might've taken most of his snaps in the slot anyway, so it's hard to spin the NFL Draft as a win for his fantasy value, especially after the Texans doubled down on Iowa State receivers and took Jaylin Noel in the third round. There's suddenly a lot of target competition behind No. 1 receiver Nico Collins, who averaged 83.8 yards and 8.3 targets per game in 2024 despite playing less than half the available snaps in three of his 12 regular-season games. The upside scenario for Kirk's volume entails Collins continuing to struggle with soft-issue injuries while the rookies fail to develop as expected. The downside scenario features Kirk becoming somewhat of an afterthought and perhaps even losing slot snaps to Noel eventually. Kirk has one year left on his contract and should be healthy for training camp, after a broken collarbone ended his final season with the Jaguars (who subsequently traded him to Houston for a seventh-round pick). The Texans already restructured Kirk's contract to convert his non-guaranteed salary into a guaranteed bonus, which rules out any chance of him being released before Week 1.