Thanks for raising your hands, those of you who took time to let me know that I still have some readers. I’ll continue putting in the time to find some value as we close out the regular season. I haven’t figured out yet if the postseason is a place to find value. I think there might be some in series bets, particularly on dogs, but I doubt there’s much in the game-to-game’s. If I do continue, it will be part of the seasonal tally.
Washington -109, one unit. John Lannan has been very strong since coming back to the majors, and J.A. Happ is atop any list of overvalued pitchers.
Chicago (NL) +115, one unit. Carlos Zambrano suddenly pitching like Carlos Zambrano.
Colorado/Arizona under 10 (-115), three units. The Rockies’ offense hasn’t been good down from the mountain, and Jorge De La Rosa has a 3.24 ERA since getting healthy. This may not be free money, but I’ll take my chances.
I’m averaging less than a comment per entry, but like two bad teams playing out the string, we’ll continue to put on a good show regardless of the empty seats.
Detroit -117, one unit. Fading the Royals on the road with a good starter at a good price.
Baltimore +130, one unit. Brian Matusz against the checked-out Red Sox.
Texas +140, one unit. Taking Derek Holland here because only one of these teams is still playing for anything at all. I think Holland has a chance to be the #4 starter in the playoffs, and setting aside that I love him anyway, I think getting him at 7-5 in this spot has some value.
Trying to finish strong. Not having a lot of success at it. Still picking off value when I can, but September is the toughest month for baseball.
St. Louis +135, 1.5 units. The pitching matchup isn’t great. My rationale is getting the comparable team at home at a good price, as well as some sense that Latos is now overvalued.
Minnesota -114, two units. I don’t understand this line at all. Nick Blackburn might be a tick undervalued at this point.
Seattle -101, one unit. The King at more or less even money. Sure, thanks.
And Nevada. Oh, heavens, Nevada.
I forgot: as good as James McDonald is, he still pitches for the Pirates.
I am astounded by tonight’s card, which draws me back in like a seductress, or fantasy football, making me forget all my promises to be good in a frenzy of passion and spreadsheets and…man, you ever get into a sentence and have no way out? Bygones.
Arizona +140, one unit. I just love the pitching matchup here, getting +140 with one of favorite young starters against the regressing Travis Wood.
Baltimore -115, one unit. Jake Arrieta at home, as well as Shawn Hill making his second start since last April.
Chicago (AL) -108, two units. John Danks at home against the HR/FB of 3.3|PERCENT| that is Francisco Liriano. I’d go higher, but it’s September, and I’m watching my figure.
Kansas City -108, one unit. Even the Royals can’t lose behind Zack Greinke every time out!
Colorado -163, two units. This is probably the largest favorite I’ve taken all season, but I get the better starter at home with a great home team against a reeling Padres team. At -180 I would have passed, I think -163 is too low.
We’ve come to the part of the year where picks will be few and far between. There’s just too much unknown, like "will four September call-ups throw seven shutout innings of relief?" The series will remain active through the end of the regular season, but my strong feeling, after last week, is to protect the 20|PERCENT| profit over the last 21 days.
I’m not going to blog college football picks, I don’t think, but with permission I may return for college basketball season.
Pittsburgh +145, one unit. Big James McDonald fan here.
San Diego/Colorado over 9.5 (120), two units. Cory Luebke has never taken his command show on the road in the majors, and I suspect he’s going to find Coors Field responds less well to his flyball ways. The Rockies are a bit too big a favorite for me to comfortably take them behind Francis, who’s something of a wild card. Let’s bet the thin air.
Some days, when I don’t post, it’s a good thing, as I probably wouldn’t have done well. Yesterday was not one of those days, as even a conservative card would have been worth a lot of units. Nothing to do but move to the next day, but it is a bit frustrating.
Off baseball: Houston -20.5 for lots.
Washington -119, two units. John Lannan has been excellent since coming back to the majors, with a 29/6 K/BB.
San Francisco -102, one unit. Keep taking the better team and better starter and see what happens.
Boston/Oakland over 6.5 (-120), three units. This might be a trap, but Buchholz and Cahill are basically the two luckiest pitchers in baseball this year. I love Cahill as well, but he’s walked 10 and struck out eight over his past four starts. There should be runs here.
Walked into some brilliant pitching by Brad Bergesen and Livan Hernandez, on the heels of Chris Narveson last night. September is weird.
I took a shot and missed, all right?
Atlanta/Pittsburgh over 8.5 (-115), two units. This could go either way, but I thought the game would list at 9 (-110), if that tells you anything. Two pitch-to-contact guys, so we’ll see how the defenses play.
Florida/Philadelphia under 8.5 (+105), two units. Cole Hamels one way, a lefty starter the other. Works for me. No Hanley Ramirez.
Texas +108, two units. Huge edge in the pitching matchup, much more than the stats indicate. There was a big move on this line…Rangers were a bigger dog early in the day.
Kansas City +151, one unit. Entirely getting the better starter at a great price. Seems like this should be +130 or so.
Colorado -117, two units. The Rockies are a completely different team at home. This is a great line even with a slightly bad pitching matchup.