Articles by Joe Bartel

A listing of all the articles written by Joe Bartel for the RotoWire Blog.

Guice/Mack Injuries Set Stage for Drastic Changes to ADP

As is customary in the NFL, Week 1 of the preseason was a bloodbath in terms of injuries to key fantasy players. This week’s version of the ADP-driven article will touch on a handful of players expected to assert themselves into a prime role thanks to injuries above them on the depth chart, and what that could mean for their draft stock.

InjuredDerrius Guice – Torn ACL, Out for season

Potential StarterRobert Kelley (NFFC ADP: 407/RB 113) and Samaje Perine (ADP: 293/RB 73)

Guice represented one of the rare, cost-effective running backs capable, and maybe even likely, to exceed their initial projections, as early fantasy drafters were able to capitalize on the uneasiness surrounding the rookie RB’s fall in the NFL Draft, securing what appeared to be a starting running back for a mid-to-late third round pick. That value was completely shattered after news surfaced Guice had torn his ACL following his first preseason carry on Thursday. Head coach Jay Gruden seemed confident the team wouldn’t add any veteran RBs in the immediate future, meaning Kelley or Perine will likely get the snaps on first and second down, with Chris Thompson mixing in as an excellent receiving option out of the backfield. Neither Kelley or Perine impressed in the starting role last season, but with no clear-cut leader in the clubhouse following the injury, I wouldn’t be surprised if both players get a crack at the job as the season progresses. While Kelley is listed as the starter for now, Perine profiles as the more explosive player (based almost entirely on his work at Oklahoma) and thus represents the best chance at capitalizing on the additional reps. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Perine creep into the top 100 by the time September rolls around, but without certainty that he’ll see the bulk of the carries I’m not sure that represents fantastic value. Fumbling issues, health problems and a lack of confidence from his head coach are all working against Perine, and those red flags are enough for me to wait till the later stages to draft him. In a roundabout way, Kelley might actually be the better play for fantasy drafters as he’s likely to come at a depreciated price compared to his teammate, but still fits the mold of a two-down back capable, and I use that word very loosely, or carrying the load.

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Per-Round Position Breakdown Based on ADP

You’ll hear plenty of strategies in the coming weeks regarding how you should construct your team but regardless of the direction you go, understanding the general layout of a given fantasy draft is imperative when it comes to your decision-making. Using the NFFC’s handy ADP tool, I took a look at the top-200 players and broke down positions taken through the first 10 rounds of a 12-team, PPR league. Here’s the results:

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Jay Ajayi Among Underpriced Players Based on ADP

Average draft position (ADP) can be a valuable tool to consult when constructing your fantasy teams. Sure, identifying and capitalizing on players you value is the most important distinction behind a successful fantasy season, but recognizing and adjusting to how a draft board may break remains an integral part of the strategy in fantasy football. This series will look to identify interesting tidbits that can be gleaned from ADP, starting first with some of better values out there during the opening stages of the 2018 fantasy season. For the purpose of this exercise, we’ll use the NFFC’s ADP although I’ll acknowledge some of the other prominent ADP’s in future articles.

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