My plan this year was to create my cheat sheet by aggregating the best algorithmic projections with the best market-based ones. The idea was to optimize the available information and then tweak it slightly to accommodate only my strongest personal preferences, i.e., move ~25 players up or down from the aggregate rankings. To that end, I used Derek Carty’s THE BAT and Steamer’s season-long projections as the algorithms, and the NFBC’s ADP as the market. But it’s more complicated than that.
It’s an odd feeling waking up, knowing only one of the Super Bowl teams when the entire world knows what happened in the second game. I watched the AFC contest via the condensed version this morning – that was a lot of drama in 43 minutes. I had the Chiefs minus three and was rooting for them, and while a few things went against them – the Edelman fumble overturn, the coin toss in overtime, the neutral zone infraction, the ticky tack roughing the passer, for example – they had plenty of chances to win. At some point, you have to stop a team from converting on 3rd-and-10.
The divisional round of the NFL playoffs is often the best of the year. That was not the case this past weekend. Only two of the games were remotely competitive, and neither was easy on the eyes, especially the Saints-Eagles game that featured long drives dictated in large part by penalties in one direction or the other. And after all that, the game ended on a dropped-pass turned into a gift interception.
I went 0-3-1 ATS and had to tear up my 18:1 ticket on the Ravens to win the AFC, so I didn’t especially enjoy Wild Card weekend. What’s worse is with the exception of the Cowboys-Seahawks which started at 1:00 am my time, and which I watched via the 40-minute condensed version Sunday morning, I had the indignity of viewing standalone games in real time, something I had mercifully avoided for most of the year. You forget how much the experience consists in sitting through muted commercials and watching officials huddle while the booth uselessly speculates on what we’ll find out minutes later anyway.
I enjoyed Week 17 with the exception of a few terrible penalty calls and the endless reviews during the Browns’ final drive. I understand you want to get the calls right with so much at stake, but people don’t have all day (or in my case all night) to wait around for the lawyers and accountants to sign off on each play. And while the refs did get the two catch calls correct in my opinion on the final drive, they still botched the fumble return on Lamar Jackson’s too-short push at the goal line by blowing the whistle too soon and also called a phantom hold negating a legitimate long Jackson TD run earlier in the game. Why insist on making everyone wait for perfect precision on one class of plays when so many of the others are both flat wrong and unreviewable?
The last Monday night game of the year won’t make us miss it. Phillip Lindsay hurt his wrist, Doug Martin (21-107-1) had a good game and Dwayne Harris outsmarted the Broncos on a 99-yard kick return. That’s pretty much all there is to know. I regret watching even the 40-minute version on Christmas Day, but as my daughter likes to say, “Why did the hero flush the toilet? Because it was his duty.” That more or less sums up my process here. Merry Christmas.