I really thought I was on to something, discovering replacement value by looking at the performance of actual replacements in the NFBC 12-team Online Championship format, but I’ve hit a wall, and I think I know why.
Before I went on vacation last week, I posted what I had for replacement value with respect to the NFBC’s 12-team, $100K online championship. It was the aggregate by-position numbers gleaned from one of last year’s leagues. Here I’ll break it down further into individual stat lines.
What’s more valuable, 200 strikeouts from a starting pitcher or 37 home runs from an outfielder? The answer isn’t obvious, and it’s actually not knowable without having information about the league context. The context in which I’ve been most interested lately is the NFBC format, in this case the 12-team. And before we can answer the question even for that specific format, we need to understand the concept of replacement value.
We had the first “Beat Chris Liss” NFBC Online Championship draft early this year. As always, it’s a 12-team standard 5 x 5 format that’s both an individual league and part of an overall contest, the first prize for which pays $100K. I drew the seventh pick, and, as always, I’ve already spent the money.
The RotoWire Online Championship is an NFBC league with a $350 entry fee, 12-team, 5×5 leagues and a $100K grand prize. A substantial portion of your entry fee goes toward the overall prize pool – you win only $1,500 for first place in your individual league – so it’s imperative to draft with the overall competition in mind. That means balance across all 10 categories as this is a no-trade format (for obvious reasons.) To that end, I ran some numbers from recent seasons to see how much one would need in each category to contend for the overall.
Yesterday I ran the Steamer hitter numbers and compared them to NFBC ADP. Today, I quickly ran Steamer’s numbers for pitchers and hitters through my formula, adjusting for closer scarcity in a hypothetical 12-team NFBC league and generated an overall list. I still haven’t adjusted catchers for position scarcity (or reduced DHs), so the hitters are by-the-numbers only. Moreover, I changed the dollar values for hitters slightly as I used a 66/34 split (what I discovered the NFBC drafters were using last year), rather than the 67/33 one I used last night. I also was lazy and just used last year’s $293.36 that was spent on closers for this year’s closer budget.