# Super Bowl 53 Observations

I watched the condensed version of the game this morning, and I’m glad I didn’t pull the all-nighter in real time. It actually was entertaining (if still frustrating) that way, but I can’t imagine how bad it would have been with all the commercials and the half-time show.

# Super Bowl Preview

Predictions are great, but I hate throwing out a set of scores and calling it a day. For those who have heard me on podcasts in the past, I always prefer that we look at the ‘why’ as being more important than the ‘what’, especially with the randomness of NFL football. So, here’s my analysis of today’s contest between the Patriots and Rams.

# How To Make Guaranteed Money On The Super Bowl

If you want to make guaranteed money on the Super Bowl, there’s a way to do it.

You’ll need access to the FanDuel Sportsbook and any site/sportsbook offering the prop “Will there be a defensive/ST touchdown?” so you can bet “NO”. William-Hill in Las Vegas for example (they have 109 locations in Nevada) has “NO” listed at -180 and this can be found in other places at similar odds. On the FanDuel Sportsbook you can take both the Rams and Patriots defense/ST at +650 to score an anytime touchdown.

The odds are good enough here that you can win guaranteed money betting both. Here’s how to do it.

If you have \$1,400 you’re going to bet \$1,000 on “NO” on “Will there be a defensive/ST touchdown?” For argument’s sake let’s say that the odds are -200. If “NO” hits, you end up with \$1,500, your \$1,000 wager and another \$500 for \$100 profit.

To hedge this, on the FanDuel Sportsbook, take \$200 and put it on “Anytime touchdown scorer” for the Rams defense/ST AND the Patriots defense/ST. If either team hits you’ll get back a total of \$1,500 giving yourself a profit of \$100. If BOTH teams hit, you’ll make a profit of \$1,600.

Shop these odds around although the key here is the two wagers to make on the FanDuel Sportsbook. Odds for the “NO” might be able to be found better than -200 to increase your profit.

# Winning TGFBI: Every Pick & Every Pickup

Earlier today, Brian Slack of BaseballHQ asked if I had posted a write-up about my TGFBI-winning team. I never really had the chance — we were right into the magazine, which you can order here, by the way.

I thought I would take a little time on this lazy Sunday to look back at my draft and a full list of in-season transactions:

# FSTA Draft – First 10 Rounds

We started the FSTA Experts draft Tuesday, broadcasting the first 10 rounds on SiriusXM Fantasy at the FSTA conference in Tampa. It’s a 14-team, 5×5 league with basic rules – trading is allowed, there’s no larger contest, and we draft full rosters. The only thing unusual about this draft was that I was broadcasting and drafting at the same time. It’s not that difficult to do, actually – it’s a snake draft, not an auction, and I was on one of the ends, giving me plenty of time to plan for my pair of picks. Moreover, because this was on air, and there was no clock between picks, each player in the league took their time with their picks. We knew in advance that we wouldn’t finish the draft live, completing it instead via slow draft.

(Full results after the jump)

# Learning From Last Season – NL LABR

We learn more from our failures than our victories, but in the fantasy sports industry (and probably in life!) we write more about our victories. It’s fun to pen the “How I won Expert League X” piece, and it’s good for marketing, too. Those pieces have merit on their own beyond a marketing standpoint too – but I do think that there’s a risk in assuming global truths from something that worked locally. For that matter, the converse is probably also true – we can conclude too much from a negative individual experience. Still, I’m going to go back and review each league and see what, if anything, we can learn. Are there any global lessons about how I play? How about how the run environment affected the results in my leagues? Or whether there was a certain type of player I was frequently right or wrong about?

After a three-year hiatus from the live LABR auctions in Phoenix, last spring I participated in the NL LABR auction over the first weekend in March. I liked but didn’t love the results, thinking at the time that I didn’t allocation my budget properly. I didn’t think that I spent enough on my hitting, both overall (\$179 instead of my intended \$190) and for my final roster spots, filling three outfield slots in the endgame plus my UT slot.