I watched the condensed version of the game this morning, and I’m glad I didn’t pull the all-nighter in real time. It actually was entertaining (if still frustrating) that way, but I can’t imagine how bad it would have been with all the commercials and the half-time show.
Predictions are great, but I hate throwing out a set of scores and calling it a day. For those who have heard me on podcasts in the past, I always prefer that we look at the ‘why’ as being more important than the ‘what’, especially with the randomness of NFL football. So, here’s my analysis of today’s contest between the Patriots and Rams.
If you want to make guaranteed money on the Super Bowl, there’s a way to do it.
You’ll need access to the FanDuel Sportsbook and any site/sportsbook offering the prop “Will there be a defensive/ST touchdown?” so you can bet “NO”. William-Hill in Las Vegas for example (they have 109 locations in Nevada) has “NO” listed at -180 and this can be found in other places at similar odds. On the FanDuel Sportsbook you can take both the Rams and Patriots defense/ST at +650 to score an anytime touchdown.
The odds are good enough here that you can win guaranteed money betting both. Here’s how to do it.
If you have $1,400 you’re going to bet $1,000 on “NO” on “Will there be a defensive/ST touchdown?” For argument’s sake let’s say that the odds are -200. If “NO” hits, you end up with $1,500, your $1,000 wager and another $500 for $100 profit.
To hedge this, on the FanDuel Sportsbook, take $200 and put it on “Anytime touchdown scorer” for the Rams defense/ST AND the Patriots defense/ST. If either team hits you’ll get back a total of $1,500 giving yourself a profit of $100. If BOTH teams hit, you’ll make a profit of $1,600.
Shop these odds around although the key here is the two wagers to make on the FanDuel Sportsbook. Odds for the “NO” might be able to be found better than -200 to increase your profit.
It’s an odd feeling waking up, knowing only one of the Super Bowl teams when the entire world knows what happened in the second game. I watched the AFC contest via the condensed version this morning – that was a lot of drama in 43 minutes. I had the Chiefs minus three and was rooting for them, and while a few things went against them – the Edelman fumble overturn, the coin toss in overtime, the neutral zone infraction, the ticky tack roughing the passer, for example – they had plenty of chances to win. At some point, you have to stop a team from converting on 3rd-and-10.
The divisional round of the NFL playoffs is often the best of the year. That was not the case this past weekend. Only two of the games were remotely competitive, and neither was easy on the eyes, especially the Saints-Eagles game that featured long drives dictated in large part by penalties in one direction or the other. And after all that, the game ended on a dropped-pass turned into a gift interception.
I went 0-3-1 ATS and had to tear up my 18:1 ticket on the Ravens to win the AFC, so I didn’t especially enjoy Wild Card weekend. What’s worse is with the exception of the Cowboys-Seahawks which started at 1:00 am my time, and which I watched via the 40-minute condensed version Sunday morning, I had the indignity of viewing standalone games in real time, something I had mercifully avoided for most of the year. You forget how much the experience consists in sitting through muted commercials and watching officials huddle while the booth uselessly speculates on what we’ll find out minutes later anyway.
I enjoyed Week 17 with the exception of a few terrible penalty calls and the endless reviews during the Browns’ final drive. I understand you want to get the calls right with so much at stake, but people don’t have all day (or in my case all night) to wait around for the lawyers and accountants to sign off on each play. And while the refs did get the two catch calls correct in my opinion on the final drive, they still botched the fumble return on Lamar Jackson’s too-short push at the goal line by blowing the whistle too soon and also called a phantom hold negating a legitimate long Jackson TD run earlier in the game. Why insist on making everyone wait for perfect precision on one class of plays when so many of the others are both flat wrong and unreviewable?