Surviving Week 9
Surviving Week 9

This article is part of our Beating the Book series.

Last week was a non-event as virtually no one was knocked out. Let's take a look at Week 9:

TeamOpponent%Taken*Vegas ML**Vegas OddsExpected Loss

Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on 
** Average of the two moneylines

Per the Vegas numbers, you could fade the 49ers and take the Bills or Cowboys as a pot-odds play, but I think the Bills have a worse chance than the market does. Cowboys/Niners is closer though. 

A Niners win/Cowboys loss happens 19.68 percent of the time. A Cowboys win/Niners loss 13.68 percent. The ratio of 19.68/13.68 is 1.44. That's your risk ratio. 

Using our standard 100-person pool with $10 buy-in example, if the 49ers lose/Cowboys win, that takes out 48 people, plus another 12 on other teams, leaving 40 left. $1000/40 = $25

If the Cowboys lose/49ers win, that takes out four people on the Cowboys and 12 on other teams. $1000/84 = $11.90. The ratio of $25 to $11.90 is 2.1. The reward for taking the Cowboys – assuming you agree with the Vegas and polling numbers – vastly outweighs the added risk. 

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Chris Liss
Chris Liss is RotoWire's Managing Editor and Host of RotoWIre Fantasy Sports Today on Sirius XM radio.
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