This article is part of our Beating the Book series.
Last week was a non-event as virtually no one was knocked out. Let's take a look at Week 9:
|Team||Opponent||%Taken*||Vegas ML**||Vegas Odds||Expected Loss|
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
Per the Vegas numbers, you could fade the 49ers and take the Bills or Cowboys as a pot-odds play, but I think the Bills have a worse chance than the market does. Cowboys/Niners is closer though.
A Niners win/Cowboys loss happens 19.68 percent of the time. A Cowboys win/Niners loss 13.68 percent. The ratio of 19.68/13.68 is 1.44. That's your risk ratio.
Using our standard 100-person pool with $10 buy-in example, if the 49ers lose/Cowboys win, that takes out 48 people, plus another 12 on other teams, leaving 40 left. $1000/40 = $25
If the Cowboys lose/49ers win, that takes out four people on the Cowboys and 12 on other teams. $1000/84 = $11.90. The ratio of $25 to $11.90 is 2.1. The reward for taking the Cowboys – assuming you agree with the Vegas and polling numbers – vastly outweighs the added risk.