Those of you who are still alive are now seeing that payoff as Minnesota substantially cleared out your pools.
Let's take a look at this week's games.
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHIEFS | Jaguars | 46.60% | 395 | 79.80% | 9.41 |
| Cowboys | BROWNS | 20.90% | 330 | 76.74% | 4.86 |
| PACKERS | Colts | 10.70% | 310 | 75.61% | 2.61 |
| SEAHAWKS | Bills | 7.10% | 300 | 75.00% | 1.78 |
| CHARGERS | Titans | 5.40% | 210 | 67.74% | 1.74 |
| VIKINGS | Lions | 4.00% | 260 | 72.22% | 1.11 |
| Falcons | BUCCANEERS | 2.10% | 165 | 62.26% | 0.79 |
| Saints | 49ERS | 1.80% | 170 | 62.96% | 0.67 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
The Chiefs are the clear favorite to win this week, and I think they'll probably roll, but too many people are on them. According to the Vegas numbers and the polling data, the Seahawks and Packers would be the top choices, but I have misgivings about both.
My
Those of you who are still alive are now seeing that payoff as Minnesota substantially cleared out your pools.
Let's take a look at this week's games.
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHIEFS | Jaguars | 46.60% | 395 | 79.80% | 9.41 |
| Cowboys | BROWNS | 20.90% | 330 | 76.74% | 4.86 |
| PACKERS | Colts | 10.70% | 310 | 75.61% | 2.61 |
| SEAHAWKS | Bills | 7.10% | 300 | 75.00% | 1.78 |
| CHARGERS | Titans | 5.40% | 210 | 67.74% | 1.74 |
| VIKINGS | Lions | 4.00% | 260 | 72.22% | 1.11 |
| Falcons | BUCCANEERS | 2.10% | 165 | 62.26% | 0.79 |
| Saints | 49ERS | 1.80% | 170 | 62.96% | 0.67 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
The Chiefs are the clear favorite to win this week, and I think they'll probably roll, but too many people are on them. According to the Vegas numbers and the polling data, the Seahawks and Packers would be the top choices, but I have misgivings about both.
My Picks
1. Minnesota Vikings
I like the Vikings this week to bounce back at home. Getting rid of Norv Turner's offense will only help as Minnesota needs to get the ball out of Sam Bradford's hands more quickly, and perhaps Pat Shurmur will use Jerick McKinnon, who should return, more. In any event, I like the home matchup against the Lions and give the Vikings a 74 percent chance to win this game.
2. Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys match up so well against the Browns, it's almost impossible to see Cleveland stopping them. But Dak Prescott is coming off his worst day as a pro, Cleveland's offense can move the ball, and the Browns are at home. I give the Cowboys a 75 percent chance to win this game.
3. Green Bay Packers
The Packers should be able to handle the Colts at home, but Andrew Luck gives them a punchers chance, especially if T.Y. Hilton is able to play. I give the Packers a 74 percent chance to win this game.
4. Seattle Seahawks
I'm nervous about this game because the Bills are stout on both lines, and the Seahawks are missing Michael Bennett on defense and weak on the offensive line. With Russell Wilson not looking healthy, this could be a low-scoring slugfest which either team can win. The advantage to Seattle is the venue and the lack of any passing game whatsoever for Buffalo. I give the Seahawks a 72 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions
Kansas City Chiefs - They'd be my pick if all I had to do were survive, but with this level of ownership and a backup QB, I want nothing to do with them this week.
San Diego Chargers - I love the Chargers as underdogs, but don't trust them at all as favorites. Plus, they don't have a big home field advantage.
