Warrick Dunn

After struggling through injuries from 2001-2003, Dunn has beaten the odds by playing 16 games and rushing for more than 1,100 yards in each of the last three seasons. While he's been remarkably durable, all that mileage should eventually catch up to his 5-9, 180-pound frame. He's set career-highs in carries each of the past three years, totaling 831 in that span. It began showing during the last season's final eight weeks, when Dunn averaged just 3.4 YPC. Dunn isn't much of a threat in the passing game, catching just 22 balls last year, and he was woefully miscast as a goal-line runner, failing on 11 of his 14 attempts. The new coaching regime wants a power running game, so Jerious Norwood is likely the starter. Dunn, who underwent offseason shoulder surgery that took several months to heal, is a better fit in a third-down role at this point in his career.

Dunn had a career year in 2005, adding almost 300 yards to his previous best and breaking the 5.0 YPC mark for the second time in three seasons. Despite creeping into his 30s, Dunn hasn’t lost a step and still displays the speed and acceleration that make him so dangerous in the open field. There are some warning signs around Dunn other than his size and age, though. His red-zone performance fell off a cliff in 2005, as he converted just one of 37 touches. T.J. Duckett’s (a very impressive 8-for-23 in the red zone) continued presence will likely ensure that Dunn remains a non-factor from in close for Atlanta. The team also drafted Jerious Norwood, a younger, larger version of Dunn in many respects who could spell him on occasion. Moreover, Michael Vick’s inability to fully utilize him in the passing game (Dunn’s caught just 29 passes in each of the last two seasons) also limits his production. Judging from his strong showing a year ago, assume Dunn still has something left in the tank, just realize that he comes with an extra helping of risk.

Despite splitting time with T.J. Duckett for a good chunk of the season, Dunn managed nearly a full-time workload last year, carrying 265 times, which is a lot for a back who goes 5-9, 180. Dunn still has the quickness to change directions and the speed to go deep. He’s also a good route-runner, a dangerous receiver out of the backfield and a nice fit for Atlanta’s West Coast offense. Despite his size, Dunn was surprisingly effective around the goal line last year, scoring on 5-of-11 attempts from inside the five. While Duckett was even better (6-of-10), he and Dunn split the attempts equally, indicating that Dunn won’t necessarily come out in all short-yardage situations. On the downside, Dunn has 1,690 career carries (38th all time), and has missed nine games over the last four seasons due to injury, so his ability to absorb more pounding at age 30 could be limited. As such, we see last season’s numbers as his ceiling.

While the young, bruising T.J. Duckett seems like an appealing choice as Atlanta’s feature back and Dunn’s foot (torn ligament) may still be of concern, the former Florida State back will be in the mix in 2004. Dunn’s speed and agility could be a perfect fit for Atlanta’s new West Coast offense, and his receiving ability far surpasses that of Duckett, which in a West Coast scheme is a critical skill.

Dunn surprised us by rushing for seven touchdowns last year, but it will be awfully hard for him to repeat that number with Michael Vick and T.J. Duckett sharing time, and carries, in the same backfield. The Falcons usually farm out a couple short touchdowns to their fullbacks, as well, so it wouldn't be a shock if Dunn rushed for just 3 to 5 scores in 2003. Possibly even more of a problem is Dunn's declining role as a receiver. He gained a modest 377 yards through the air last season, the second-lowest total of his six-year career, and Dunn has said in public that he wants to be used even less for catching passes because he feels it beats up his body too much and takes away from his running abilities. Bottom line, although Dunn was a top-20 back in anyone's scoring system last year, we'd be very surprised if he repeats in 2003.