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Past Fantasy Outlooks
Uneventful would be a good way to describe Henry's 2016-17 season. Henry posted just two top-10s, with one coming at the opposite-field Puerto Rico Open and the John Deere Classic, which traditionally has one of the weaker fields every season. Henry's best season on the PGA Tour was over a decade ago and although he's won twice in the past six seasons, he hasn't turned either into a monster year. His days of monster potential are long gone and even if he finds a win this season, it will be at an opposite-field event and won't amount to much more than his number from last season.
Henry won the Barracuda a couple of seasons back, and that's why he's still here. Whether we can say that at this time next year for the veteran is a long shot. There's really no part of his game to get excited about.
Henry has been a Tour regular since 2001, and made the playoffs every year, until finishing 128th this past season. He didn’t exactly shine in the Web.com Tour finals, flubbing three events but using one fifth-place standing to carry him through. So where does that leave the 39-year-old after his worst year on Tour? Probably no better than 128th in the standings.
Henry posted as many top-25s in the abbreviated 2013-2014 season as he did during the entire 2013 regular season. That would seem to be a good sign, but Henry just doesn't have the upside that he once did. He's certainly capable of getting back above the $1 million mark, but he probably won't reach even $1.5 million. Henry hasn't been able to find the high-end finishes in recent years, which makes it difficult to move up the money list. Henry has some value in draft leagues though because he play often and makes a lot of cuts. Look for Henry in the 100-110 range.
Give or take a hundred thousand dollars, Henry likely will finish within $1 million. Write it down. That's where he's finished the last six years, and, even though he surprised us last year with a win at the Reno-Tahoe Open, that's where you can expect him to finish this year. As such, he's not worth a selection in salary cap leagues this year. In draft leagues, he's worth a look (anyone who has won on the PGA TOUR is) but not until the ninth round.
How exactly does a player who collected only one Top-10 make the Top 125? Mind you, this Top-10 was a T9. Well, when you make 20 cuts, the checks start to add up. In Henry's case, he used five Top-25s to accumulate about $500K before May. His upside is limited, however, as he hasn't topped $2 million since 2006 and has spent most of the last five years hovering around $1 million.
Henry appeared to be on his way to the next level on the PGA TOUR, but after four consecutive years of so-so play, it's become apparent that Henry is simply a golfer who'll play well enough to keep his card each year but not much more beyond that. He earned a runner-up finish last year at the Turning Stone Resort Championship, but that was one of only two top-10s the entire year. Henry should again crack the top 100 on the money list, but his days of top-50 or top-30 look gone. Henry is a solid ball striker, ranking top-30 or better in GIR in four of the last five seasons.
Henry peaked in 2006 when he picked up his first and only win on the PGA TOUR, and it's been downhill ever since. He might be good for another $1 million year, but it doesn't look like he'll come near that peak year of 2006 again.
J.J. Henry had a breakout year in 2006, but he didn't back it up very well in 2007. Only two top-10s in 26 events. Maybe he let up a little after having so much success in the previous year. Henry seems to have more talent than he showed last season, and I expect a nice bounce-back year in 2008.
At first glance it looks like Henry's entire season was just the one victory in July. He did play well at other events, such as a runner-up finish at the FBR Open and a fourth-place finish at the Bell South Classic, but the consistency is still lacking. In all, he had five top-10 finishes in 28 events. He needs to work on showing up every time out. Expect a breakthrough on that front this year, but the high finishes might not be there.
If Henry can improve his putting to say 100th on Tour he might make 2 million. Prior to last season Henry had been ranked in the 180's. Last year he moved up into the 130's. Maybe he figured something out last year. If he continues to improve the putting he will have a pretty good year.
More Fantasy News
Teeing it up at Corales Championship
Backing out of 3M Open
Joins 3M Open field
Aces the 16th at Coco Beach
Henry fired a three-under 69 on Sunday at the Puerto Rico Open to finish nine-under and tied for 10th.
Fourth top-25 of season
Henry closed with a two-under 68 in the final round of the Greenbrier Classic and finished in a tie for 21st place.