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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring J.B. Holmes
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
Holmes had another good start to the campaign in January, but after finishing T51 in his defense of the Genesis Invitational, we saw Holmes play just one more round the rest of the season at the Workday Charity Open before having to withdraw due to an injured shoulder. Holmes has battled injuries throughout his career, which makes drafting him a scary proposition.
Holmes has gone from young up and comer, to underperformer, to surgery on his brain, to great comeback story, to new career heights, to, well, now he's kind of settled-in as a somewhat high-performer and that might be where he stays for the foreseeable future. Holmes picked-up his first win since 2015 this past season, which boosted him over the $2 million mark for the first time since 2015, but it looks like he might not have that extra gear anymore. At 37, Holmes still has some good years left in him, but he's been through a lot physically and you never know when the game will start to fade.
Since joining the PGA Tour in 2012, Holmes has been one of the more consistent golfers on tour. He's had several peaks and very few valleys. He topped the $4 million mark in earnings just a few years ago, but he's been unable to reproduce the results of that season since. Holmes will turn 37 this season and while he should be years away from a decline, it's reasonable to wonder if he's topped-out. Holmes hasn't won on the PGA Tour in his past three seasons and he's failed to top $2 million in earnings in each of his past two seasons. The talent is there, but with plenty of talent all around him, it's not getting any easier to succeed on the PGA Tour. Holmes' best days on the golf course are probably behind him and as such, he's not a great salary cap option this season.
A strange season for Holmes as he made 19 cuts in 23 starts, but failed to get much done on the weekend. Holmes managed only two top-10s last season and nothing inside the top-3. It was, by far, Holmes' worst season since undergoing brain surgery in 2013. With that in mind, there's no reason to think that this is a trend and since his ceiling is around $4 million, he's certainly a guy worth paying for this season.
J.B. Holmes has come a long way from brain surgery just three years ago. In that time, he's posted his three most productive seasons on the PGA Tour. His best season came two seasons ago when he earned over $4 million and while his production dropped last season, there's no reason to worry. The main reason for the drop in production last season was his inability to find the winner's circle, something he did the previous two seasons. With that in mind, Holmes looks like a solid salary cap play this season as he's bound to win at some point. In draft leagues, Holmes should go in the third round.
Not bad for a guy still recovering from brain surgery. It took a while for Holmes to fully recover, but it appears as though he's finally back to the player he was pre-surgery. There's no reason to think he'll slow down anytime soon, but the question is, can he significantly improve upon his 2014 numbers? Possibly, but possibly does not make for a good salary cap selection. The fact of the matter is, $2.3 million is too much to risk on Holmes this season. In draft leagues, he's a solid 4th round selection.
All things considered, Holmes had a pretty good season last year, but his earnings were well below what we've come to expect. However, when you consider he was coming off offseason brain surgery, his earnigns look just fine. Holmes is really a $2-3 million player, but the issue with his brain has affected his last two seasons. Now that he's fully recovered and more than 12 months removed from surgery, Holmes should again start to resemble the player we saw in 2010. Holmes could go as early as the fourth round in draft leagues but should probably go in the fifth.
Holmes and Bubba Watson joined the PGA Tour at the same time, and while Holmes was the first of the two big-hitters to find the winner's circle, Watson is the one who's gone on to have more success. There's still time for Holmes to get this thing turned around. It's not like he had a horrible season, but much more is expected of Holmes. Holmes was actually showing a new-found level of consistency last year, but an injury cut his season short in August - and not just any injury, Holmes had brain surgery in September. The symptoms that led to this surgery may have started as early as May, so it's actually quite amazing that he produced at all from that point on. Holmes looks to have a bright future, but this is unchartered territory. There's no established timetable for returning from brain surgery to the PGA Tout. Keep track of health reports on Holmes. If he appears healthy, he's definitely worth a shot. If not, let others take the chance.
Holmes' career took off in 2006 when he won his fourth event as a rookie at the FBR Open, but successes thereafter was less frequent. Last season was a different story, however, as Holmes started to find some consistency in his game. The fact that he nearly cracked the top 30 at season's end without the benefit of a victory speaks volumes. His turn around has been quite staggering. In 2009, he made only 11 cuts in 25 events, but last year he made the cut in 24 of 26 events. This new-found consistency should bring about better results. Prior to last season, Holmes was all show and no dough, that is, he drove the ball well, but couldn't hit greens or putt to save his life. That turned around a bit last season, and he improved his putting stats immensely.
Take away the FBR Open and J.B. Holmes might not even be on the PGA TOUR. Holmes has won that even in two of the last four season, and while all of his winnings came outside of that event last season, he still lacks the consistency that will take him to the next level. Holmes can hit the ball a mile, but sooner or later he needs to realize that sacrificing some distance will likely lead to improvements in other areas of his game. If Holmes can make those adjustments this season, he could make a big jump in earnings. If not, don't expect Holmes' production to be mroe than average.
Depending on your viewpoint, the trick is either his long drives, or the fact that he can only win at the FBR Open. Either way, he'll need to make some adjustments if he wants to see better results. I'm not sure that he's ready to dial back the driver yet, so I don't foresee much of an improvement this year.
If not for his win at the FBR early in the 2006 season, Holmes would have been at Q-School last year and this year. I remember that week well, Holmes was in the zone, he was bombing drives 300+ right down the middle of the fairway. There was never any thought of what to do off the tee, grip it an rip it. Looking back it is clear that he simply was playing out of his mind that day/week. That can happen from time to time. What that win did, was set the bar awfully high, and Holmes has had trouble living up to expectations ever since. Maybe he can improve with the spotlight elsewhere.
For those who watched Holmes destroy the field at the FBR Open you might have thought Holmes was the next challenger to the Tiger Woods throne. Of course, the way the television commentators drooled over him, no one could blame you. Holmes did play incredibly well that week, but it was obvious he was simply in the zone. He was bombing drives longer than 350 in the center of the fairway. He couldn't miss-hit a shot if he tried. Then something happened, the sun rose on the next day. Golf is funny that way, one day you play lights-out, the next you are an average Joe. Holmes turned into an average Joe for the remainder of 2006. Without that early season win he might have found himself at Q-School. Then again, maybe the early success had an impact on the rest of his season. Expect Holmes to finish in a similar spot for 2007. But he should get there in a more conventional way. Maybe a handful of top-10s.
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