Ellis has been plagued by injuries over the past three seasons, missing 58 games over that span, but he's generally played like a high-end fantasy option when healthy, particularly last year, when he racked up eight goals and 30 assists in just 49 games. The 29-year-old blueliner is expected to skate on Nashville's top pairing with reigning Norris Trophy winner Roman Josi while seeing minutes on the Predators' second power-play unit in 2020-21, so if he's able to stay healthy, which is a big if, he'll have nearly unmatched scoring upside among defensemen. That sort of potential is worth gambling on in the middle rounds of this year's fantasy drafts.
Since recording 16 goals behind an 11.4 shooting percentage in 2016-17, Ellis has seen his goal output drop in each of the last two seasons, but he's probably due for a positive regression in that category in 2019-20. The 28-year-old posted a 4.7 shooting percentage in 2018-19, which is nearly 2.5 percent below his career norm. Even so, Ellis was still able to pot seven goals and 41 points while posting a plus-21 rating last season. Despite his poor shooting percentage, Ellis was still able to produce respectable offensive totals thanks to his high shot volume -- his 149 shots on net was just three shy of a career best. If he's able to stay healthy, Ellis should be able to reach double figures in goals while totaling 35-to-40 points and registering a desirable plus-minus rating in 2019-20, making him a strong secondary option at his position in fantasy circles.
Ellis, who missed the first half of last season due to knee surgery, returned to the lineup in January and quickly made up for lost time, finishing with 32 points in 44 games. This equates to a blistering 60-point pace, which would have put him right up there among the elite scoring defensemen in the league like Drew Doughty (62), Erik Karlsson (62) and Victor Hedman (63). Skating mostly on the Predators' first pairing opposite Roman Josi, Ellis was the team's best defender most nights - especially in his own zone, as his eye-popping plus-27 rating will attest. With the ink drying on an eight-year, $50 million contract extension that he signed in mid-August, Ellis remains one of the league's top options on a very stacked blue line. Don't be afraid to kick him up a notch or two on your draft cheat sheets this fall.
After playing much of the previous three seasons in a supporting role, Ellis was finally promoted to top-line duty last year, skating with Roman Josi on the Preds’ top defensive pairing. As a result, Ellis saw his ice time climb nearly three full minutes to 23:57 per game and recorded a career-high 38 points (including 11 on the power play) despite missing 11 games to various injuries. While the NHL may never see him exhibit the scoring prowess he showed back in junior hockey (300-plus points over four seasons at OHL Windsor), he’s finally showing he can be a dependable, top-four defenseman who can play a reliable two-way game and still chip in respectable offensive totals. While some regression in shooting percentage may bring his goal total down from last year's 16 unless he starts unleashing more shots, the 26-year-old still has some upside left, so it’s not unreasonable to expect him to continue improving -- meaning his first 40-point campaign is a legitimate possibility. Consider him a solid fantasy blue-line option in most standard leagues and a good DFS candidate in daily formats.
Ellis enjoyed his finest NHL campaign in 2015-16, setting new personal marks in goals (10), assists (22), power-play points (seven) and average ice time (20:54) while mostly skating alongside Mattias Ekholm on the Preds’ second defensive pairing. In fact, Ellis-Ekholm duo was so good, the Preds ended up trading away fellow blueliner Seth Jones for Ryan Johansen in January. The No. 11 overall pick in the 2009 draft is expected to reprise his top-four defensive role in Nashville this season, and he may be poised to take yet another step forward – especially if the Preds end up splitting Roman Josi and the recently acquired P.K. Subban, either of whom would make an incredible defensive partner for Ellis.
After almost hitting 30 points in his first full NHL season in 2013-14, Ellis made some strides in his development this past season, banking a career-high nine goals. Despite missing 24 games with a lower-body injury, the puck-moving blueliner still netted 27 points to match the previous season's total, while firing off an impressive 118 shots on goal, or about two per game. The 5-foot-10 defenseman has tremendous offensive instincts and a cannon for a shot, making him a fantasy defenseman on the rise. He’ll be manning the point alongside Seth Jones on the team’s second power-play unit in 2015-16, so if he can stay healthy, the former 101-point junior scorer could be in for his best offensive season to date.
After being a major disappointment for much of the previous two seasons (just 17 points in 64 games combined), Ellis finally started to show signs of putting it all together in 2013-14. He played in close to a full season for the first time (80 games) and posted 27 points (six goals and 21 assists). He typically played on the third defensive pairing, averaging just 16:04 in ice time for the season. But he was used on the second power-play unit where he averaged 1:45 per game, good for fourth among Preds defensemen. Looking ahead, the Preds are still hoping Ellis can show the same kind of offensive skills he displayed in junior (300+ points over four seasons at OHL Windsor), but for now he will be used primarily in a stay-at-home defensive role and as a secondary special-teams guy.
Expectations were high for Ellis last season, as he was tabbed early on as one of the favorites to line up alongside Shea Weber following the departure of Ryan Suter. However, it turned out to be a disappointing campaign for Ellis. He missed the first half of the season with a broken wrist and then registered just six points in 33 games the rest of the way while playing mostly on the team's third defensive pairing. Looking ahead, Ellis could find himself as little more than a depth player come October, particularly with the Preds' first-round draft pick Seth Jones expected to open the season with the big club.
The 2012-13 season could be a pivotal one for Ellis. With Ryan Suter having departed for Minnesota as a free agent, the Preds will certainly be looking for someone to fill his skates on the team's top defensive pairing alongside Shea Weber. Ellis certainly has the scoring touch to fill that role -- particularly on the power play -- so be ready to bump him up a few notches on your draft sheets come October. At the very least, expect Ellis to play a regular role for the Preds next season after scoring 11 points in 32 games in 2011-12.
Ellis put up some impressive numbers last season - his last year of junior - posting 101 points in just 58 games. He was the first defender in the OHL to break the century mark in points in 17 years and the first blueliner to nab Player of the Year since Brian Campbell did it way back in 1998-99. With a solid training camp, he may prove he's ready to jump directly into the NHL. Otherwise, he will likely open the season at the AHL level, but the kid will eventually crack the Preds' lineup for good - he's about as blue-chip as they come.
Nashville's top pick in the 2009 Entry Draft had 61 regular-season points for the OHL's Windsor Spitfires last year, as well as 38 points in 23 playoff games. The Predators' brass likes what it sees in Ellis, but they are not going to rush the 19-year-old into active duty before he's ready. It will probably be another season or two before you see Ellis at the NHL level, but he'll get there. He projects as a top-four defenseman who can move the puck as well as quarterback the power play.
