Brian Lawrence

Lawrence never threw a pitch for the Nationals after his trade from the Padres for Vinny Castilla, after being diagnosed with a torn rotator cuff and labrum in his pitching shoulder. Wherever he lands, he's going to be a significant risk just to make it to Opening Day, let alone pitching well for your fantasy team.

Everything was ugly about Lawrence's 2005 season. His ERA was an eye-popping 4.83. His strikeouts were down and his walks were up. While we think he's enough of a strikeout pitcher to rebound (especially in the cavernous RFK Stadium) there really aren't many signs to indicate a turnaround. He'll start the season with a job in the Nationals rotation. If you see signs he's turned things around, pick him up but don't risk too much.

Lawrence, once touted by the Padres organization as a poor man's Greg Maddux, managed a winning record in 2004 but did little else in recovering from a poor 2003 season. His ERA was decent at 4.12 but he continued to elevate his interior numbers. Lawrence allowed opponents to hit him at a .287 clip and slugged .460 off of him. Of all the Padres' pitchers, the 28-year-old should have benefited the most from the spacious confines of the home park. With that in mind it's difficult to project anything positive based on the past season. A return to 2002 form should have him on the brink of a Cy Young given the park benefits, but he's been far too hittable the past two seasons and tempering expectations for fantasy purposes would be prudent.

Last season was supposed to be Lawrence's coming out party, and while his WHIP and opponents batting average against improved, his strikeout totals faltered significantly, and he allowed 11 more home runs in roughly the same amount of innings. The end result was a disappointing 10-15 record, with an ERA that jumped a half-run to 4.19. The team should give him better support in the new season, and both the bullpen and the on-field defense will be improved. Expect the party invitations to be engraved and re-sent for the upcoming season.

Lawrence followed up a somewhat surprising 2001 with an impressively comparable 2002 season. Overall, his peripheral numbers were somewhat inferior, but some of that can be attributed to fatigue, as Lawrence logged a career-high 210 IP in 2002 and compiled an 0-4 record and a 6.55 ERA down the stretch. He’s a good bet to take another step toward stardom or blow out his arm in 2003.