RotoWire Roundtable
I think few would argue that one of the best days of the year (fantasy or otherwise) is draft day. It's the day we get to put three months of planning and analysis to the test. Like a gambler rolling into Las Vegas with that "can't miss" blackjack system, all of us (including the RotoWire staff) go into draft day thinking we know exactly who to pick, who to avoid and how far to reach for that sleeper... but sometimes, we get it wrong.
The goal of this series is to help you level set your strategy against the marketplace. It is critical to do this kind of reality check to ensure your draft day approach doesn't make you take on unnecessary risk. A good strategy puts you a couple steps ahead of the competition - it doesn't make you do crazy things that confuse and bewilder the other owners in your league. If you are executing well, it should be invisible to your competition until the draft is nearly over.
Think of this series like a draft thermometer: it will provide invaluable data points as you put together your 2012 plan. Our rankings are a proxy for different draft strategies you may encounter: the more diversity there is in our rankings, the more unpredictable that player is likely to be in your own league draft. As talent acquisition is not just a draft day activity, we aim to publish this series monthly through the first half of the season, with a final update after the non-waiver trade deadline to help you prepare for the championship push (or, if you're already out of it, the off-season).
First, the ground rules: our rankings were assembled for 12-team, 5x5 mixed leagues that starts two catchers per team (thus there is a positional scarcity component added for catchers). We used four rankers for the first issue (Jeff Erickson, Derek VanRiper, Michael Rusignola and Bernie Pleskoff), but hope to add at least one more ranker for our March update. The rankings were completely blinded -- none of the rankers saw any of the other rankings before the publication of this article.
An Overview of February's Rankings
February rankings always tend to have the most variability, as playing time and health issues are not yet resolved. Overall, Jeff's rankings seemed to be the most "centrist" of the bunch, exhibiting the highest correlation with the three other rankings (see Table 1). Naturally, batters represented a significant portion of the early draft (see Table 2). Bernie gave the lowest premium to the top starters. DVR seemed to be the most anti-reliever and anti-catcher of the bunch, ranking the average top closer around 124 and top catcher around 57.
Table 1: Correlation between Rankers
|
Correlation
|
Jeff
|
DVR
|
Michael
|
Bernie
|
|
Jeff
|
1.00
|
0.88
|
0.87
|
0.77
|
|
DVR
|
0.88
|
1.00
|
0.79
|
0.76
|
|
Michael
|
0.87
|
0.79
|
1.00
|
0.77
|
|
Bernie
|
0.77
|
0.76
|
0.77
|
1.00
|
Table 2: Position Breakdown
|
Average Rank of Top...
|
50 Batters
|
3 Catchers
|
15 Starters
|
5 Relievers
|
|
Jeff
|
32.46
|
39.67
|
36.53
|
90.20
|
|
DVR
|
32.50
|
57.33
|
37.40
|
124.20
|
|
Michael
|
31.08
|
44.33
|
42.13
|
102.80
|
|
Bernie
|
30.84
|
33.00
|
43.40
|
99.40
|
Rankings with One Outlier
First, we'll go through a couple of players where three of the rankers were in alignment but one ranker held an opposing opinion.
Matt Kemp (OF) -
The Pessimist: DVR (10); The Pack: Jeff (1), Michael (2), Bernie (1).
Nothing like finding an outlier in one of the first two picks! Without a doubt, Kemp's combination of power and speed makes him a top-tier outfielder, but Derek sees red flags in Kemp's 74% contact rate and the Dodgers' lack of lineup depth. DVR thinks 2011 was Kemp's ceiling, and believes a decline in batting average, RBIs and runs is in his future. The Pack regards Kemp as a five category player, even if the batting average retreats a little bit.
Howie Kendrick (2B) -
The Optimist: Bernie (49); The Pack: Jeff (112), DVR (118), Michael (109).
Bernie is bullish on Kendrick, thinking he has finally turned the corner and could become that batting champion he was always supposed to be (dating back to '07, when we first started predicting a breakout). The presence of
Albert Pujols,
Mark Trumbo, and possibly even
Kendrys Morales in the same lineup only increases Kendrick's ability to knock in and score runs. The Pack likes the second base eligibility but sees a long and storied injury history, and isn't quite buying that the power breakout is for real.
Mike Moustakas (3B) -
The Pessimist: Michael (313); The Pack: Jeff (172), DVR (169), Bernie (176).
As the pessimist here, let me start by saying I'm actually a Moustakas owner in the RotoWire Staff League. I love the potential, but I'm still not entirely sold on him as a top-200 player, not yet anyway. Moustakas struggled as a rookie, and remember, even though he was a year ahead of
Eric Hosmer, it was Hosmer - and not Moustakas - who got the first call-up. The Pack obviously loves his upside and his September finish (.352/.380/.580); the Pessimist agrees on the upside but doesn't see him hitting 17 home runs or driving in 77 runs (the RotoWire projection) just yet.
Players that Divided our Rankers into Two Camps
The players below split our rankers evenly, with half of the rankers taking an optimistic outlook on the player and the other half taking a more pessimistic view.
Hunter Pence (OF) -
Optimistic Camp: Michael (28), Bernie (26); Pessimistic Camp: Jeff (48), DVR (49).
The Optimist Camp sees Pence as one of the most underrated hitters in the game. Unorthodox in almost everything he does, from his swing to his throwing motion to the way he runs, Pence makes excellent contact, plays in a hitter's park and with a winning team. Plenty of men on base means Pence will deliver numbers in virtually every category. The Pessimist Camp thinks the batting average is due for a correction and Pence's days of stealing 18 bags are behind him. They say his OPS will likely be 100+ points lower than the .954 he put up after being traded to the Phillies last July, which drops him back into the early fifth round of the draft.
Buster Posey (C) -
Optimistic Camp: Jeff (38), Michael (31); Pessimistic Camp: DVR (60), Bernie (57).
The Optimistic Camp sees a catcher who can hit for power and average, and who figures to see a lot of time at first base, which should only increase his plate appearances. The Pessimistic Camp points out that Posey wasn't hitting all that well before suffering his devastating season-ending injury last year. While he should recoup the skills he showed as a rookie two seasons ago, he looks a lot less stable than
Carlos Santana and
Brian McCann, who will also hit in the heart of their respective orders.
David Price (SP) -
Optimistic Camp: Jeff (35), DVR (35); Pessimistic Camp: Michael (49), Bernie (53).
The Optimistic Camp sees Price in the same class as
Felix Hernandez and
Tim Lincecum, in part because of Price's improved strikeout and walk rates in each of the last two seasons. The Pessimistic Camp cites the competitiveness of the AL East and Price's fatigue as the game and season wears on as the ding that brings him down just a notch.
All over the Place
For these players, there was absolutely no consensus, with rankings coming in literally all over the place.
Zack Greinke (SP) -
DVR (34), Jeff (56), Michael (84), Bernie (108).
Greinke was one of the most divisive players on the list, with DVR on the high end at 34 and Bernie on the low end at 108. We will set aside the fact that DVR lives in Wisconsin for a second to consider the merits of his case for Greinke as the sixth best starter on the board: Zack Attack is coming off of a season where he posted a career-high 10.5 K/9IP. His ERA and WHIP numbers were likely elevated by shoddy defense, which should be rectified by an improved left side of the infield. With an excellent underlying K/9, BB/9 and HR/9 profile, Greinke may be the only pitcher in MLB capable of matching
Justin Verlander's 2011 campaign.
Despite compelling peripherals, Greinke has unperformed his advanced metrics for a couple of seasons now. And don't forget, Greinke missed most of 2006 with social anxiety disorder, a condition which many believe he never truly put behind him. While with the Royals, Greinke filled his no-trade list exclusively with big market teams (noticeably coming to a head when the team tried to deal him to the Yankees). In short, he doesn't exude that self confidence you want to see in your frontline starter. Even if Greinke matches the RotoWire site projections of a 3.71 ERA and 1.225 WHIP, he will place 66
th and 47
th among starting pitchers expected to pitch 100 innings, which, wins and strikeouts aside, is hardly elite.
Chipper Jones (3B) -
Bernie (130), DVR (204), Michael (286), Jeff (NR).
Sure, health is always a concern for Chipper, but the optimists are quick to point out that third base is a very weak position. Jones hit for a higher average and played in more games in 2011 than he did in 2010. He's a line drive contact hitter and still has that ability to drive in runs. On the flip side, his power has been on a pretty steady decline for the past few seasons and he always feels like he's a DL stint away from announcing his retirement, so why roll the dice?
Matt Garza (SP) -
Jeff (65), DVR (88), Michael (136), Bernie (196).
The optimists think that the Cubs are a better team, and the Cardinals and Brewers are worse teams, than they were last year. Garza's durable, he gets lots of strikeouts and his ratios should continue to be pretty good. Even with just 13 wins, the optimists see Garza as more than serviceable. The pessimists, however, want their top shelf starters to have a chance for a W every time they take the mound - and unless Garza is traded, that won't be happening with the Cubs in 2012. Garza may be durable, but he is inconsistent, and can lapse quickly into poor command when he tries to blow hitters away. There are safer bets than Garza on the board at this point in the draft, so the pessimists recommend you go after one of those pitchers instead.
And on with...
The List
NR = Not Ranked
Abst = Abstained from Ranking
Players with the same median were ranked secondarily by their average ranking. Players who were not ranked were assigned a ranking of 392 (the midpoint between 351 and 433, the total number of ranked players) for the purpose of computing the median.
So... let's hear it! Do you agree with the Pack or the Outlier? Are you in the Optimistic Camp or the Pessimistic Camp? Or are there any players here where our rankers were in alignment but you feel we all got it wrong?