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The Metric System: Predicting Batting Average

Jeff Zimmerman

Jeff Zimmerman

Jeff Zimmerman writes about all things Baseball for RotoWire. He also handles scouting and reporting for PrepBaseballReport.com. Jeff also contributes to RoyalsReview.com, FanGraphs.com and BaseballHeatMaps.com.


Note: All values were collected from the games played on or before 4/14/14

It is early in the season and we all should know not to take too much stock in a couple of weeks worth of stats. The time though is coming when a few key stats can give us an idea of what to expect for the rest of the season. One stat which people may not know they can project to an extent is batting average. Chase Utley will probably not be able to continue hitting .489, but how much should we expect his average to drop? By limiting batting average for balls in play (BABIP) to historic values and regressing strikeout percentage, we can get a good idea where a player's batting average may end up.

The two main components to determine a player's batting average are strikeouts and BABIP. By looking at each stat, we can combine the information to get an idea on predicting a batting average.

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