I watched the Super Bowl over at the TYT Sports studios – they’re part of the TYT Network that covers politics, and I didn’t realize the viewing party was a live broadcast alternative to the Super Bowl. (I was sitting just out of the shot for most of it, so I’m barely in it.)
Last week, I ran the Steamer projections through my dollar-value formula and generated hitting and pitching prices, respectively. Today, with the benefit of some early NFBC auction prices (the average of three auctions), we can compare the algorithmically-generated values with the market-based ones.
For part 2 of my baseball prep, I downloaded the Steamer projections from Fangraphs, ran them through my valuation formula, then translated them to dollar values based on a 68/32 hitting/pitching split for a 12-team mixed league with a $260 budget and 14 active hitters. Keep in mind the Steamer projections are conservative by nature and will miss the big breakouts, but it is the most accurate system on Fangraphs over the last couple years and a good resource for creating a baseline, especially for players whose skills are less likely to change abruptly.
Doing some early baseball prep, I downloaded the Steamer projections from Fangraphs, ran them through my valuation formula, then translated them to dollar values based on a 68/32 split for a 12-team mixed league with a $260 budget and nine active pitchers. Here are the results:
Being wrong about the NFL is an interesting experience – you’re surprised at the particulars (which team won or lost, which players scored TDs), but not at all surprised you were wrong. There’s a dissonance between what you believe will happen and the knowledge that your belief could easily be wrong. So it was with the Patriots who I expected to roll Sunday, but I knew were only three-point favorites for a reason.
I’m on vacation in Idaho this week, but I was able to catch most of the games. I opted out of a big chunk of Denver-Pittsburgh because (1) it was getting dark, and I wanted to get some sledding in with my daughter; and (2) the game was so boring and poorly played I couldn’t take it anymore.
I went to a Palm Springs resort for the weekend with my family, so I didn’t watch all of the games for the first time in years. I was unlucky enough to catch the Texans-Chiefs, the end of the Steelers-Bengals and most of the Vikings-Seahawks, so I spent Sunday afternoon teaching my nearly four-year-old daughter how to swim. By that I mean standing in the pool, throwing her five feet into the air and watching her crash into the water, bubble to the surface and say: “Again!”