I actually planned to take the day off until Kevin Payne messaged me that a “Happy Hour” contest was up. These have a nice overlay, in today’s case $5000 in prize money for 574 $10 entries (-$740) plus 120 tickets to a $25 Grand Slam tomorrow equals $3000, minus the rake in that contest equals about $2,550. That means it’s $2550 – $740 or about $1800 of overlay (31%). That’s significant.
On Friday, we had the annual Yahoo Friends and Family draft – a 14-team expert league where you start 1-QB, 2-RB, 2-WR, 2-FLEX (RB/WR/TE), 1 -TE, 1-K and 1-D. Scoring is essentially normal PPR except for God knows what reason commissioner Brandon Funston prefers .75 points per reception and 4.5 points per passing TD.
Here are the results:
I set eight lineups in a rush last night, and I got what was coming to me: a single $12.50 cash on a $60 investment. That brings my bankroll down to $1,408.61. It wasn’t that I didn’t like the players or pitchers I used – I had Clayton Kershaw in three, Raisel Iglesias in two and Aaron Nola in one – it was my impatience to put together anything that fit. The problem – if you can call it that – was I had to head out to Heather’s aunt’s house in Malibu, and I didn’t get there until 3:20 PT (45 minutes before lineup lock) and occasionally had to speak to everyone (including my three-and-a-half year old, Sasha, who was earnestly showing me her artwork as though it were the seminal masterpiece of our era) while I was finalizing my choices. There are worse reasons to screw up your lineups, so I’m not especially upset about it.
Another four $5 Rally lineups failed to cash Thursday, dropping my bankroll down to $1456.11. Here are the lineups for tonight:
|Pos||$25 GS||$||$5 Rally||$||$5 Rally||$||$5 Rally||$|
|Pos||$5 Rally||$||$5 Rally||$||$5 Rally||$||$5 Rally||$|
I set eight lineups total, one $25 Grand Slam and seven $5 Rallys. I’m not thrilled with these – I was rushed to get them done before the deadline, so I have bits and pieces of what I wanted to do, but didn’t think them out well enough. For example, I have a Mariners stack against John Danks, but it’s only in one place and attached to Max Scherzer who was probably my third or fourth favorite choice among pitchers.
All told, I used four pitchers: Clayton Kershaw (3), Scherzer (2), Raisel Iglesias (2) and Aaron Nola. Other heavily used players include: Troy Tulowitzki (4), Mike Trout (4), Yan Gomes (3), Chase Utley (3), Anthony Rendon (3), Giovanny Urshela (3), Andre Ethier (3), Brandon Moss (3) and Carl Crawford (3).
|Pos||$5 Rally||$||$5 Rally||$||$5 Rally||$|
|P||Cole||10000||de la Rosa||7300||Rodon||8300|
On the Sirius XM show, I picked out Rubby de la Rosa and a Nationals stack as my top choice for a lineup, but switched to Carlos Rodon because he’s got such electric stuff and is on a nice roll. But when I went to write this up, I realized the Mariners are better against lefties thanks to Nelson Cruz and got cold feet. So I checked the Inside Edge and RotoWire Optimizers for suggestions, and they both had Gerrit Cole in their optimal lineups. The Inside Edge one especially hated Rodon, projecting him to get shelled.
So I set one lineup with Cole, and I had to scrap a few a lot of my players as a result. But then I thought: “What if my Rodon or de la Rosa would-be lineups go off, and I switched it because I relied on an algorithm over my own instincts?” So I set an alternative lineup with each, just in case.
Incidentally, all three lineups have the following four players: Bryce Harper, Andrew McCutchen, Anthony Rendon and Evan Longoria.
Last night, I bought in for $65, took back only $15 for a loss of $50, bringing my bankroll to $1506.11. Today I set one $25 Grand Slam lineup, and I probably should have just sat out as I’m not feeling it especially. My idea was the Cardinals are underdogs (D-Backs are -125), but Patrick Corbin is only $6800. Corbin got pounded the last time out, but he’s been getting Ks and turned in some strong outings since coming back from the DL.