Wentz at One: A Draft Day Mock

Nothing like last minute, huh?

In the spirit of Draft Day – my favorite religious holiday – I couldn’t resist taking a quick dip in the mock draft pool. After all, it’s been far too long since my last one following Seattle’s Super Bowl beatdown of Denver. That’s right, I somehow skipped an entire year. And lucky for the NFL that all-too-early February mock in 2014 wasn’t the work of Nostradamus  – I had Odell Beckham going to the Seahawks to cap the first round. Boy would that have been disheartening as a Packers fan for the bulk of the next decade.

Eastern Conference Round 2 Preview: Islanders vs. Lightning

How the Lightning got here:

You can actually thank the Red Wings for that. Jeff Blashill’s squad came into the playoffs all jumbled up and in pieces, with question marks stretching from inconsistent goaltending to infrequent scoring, and even the spotty defense in between. Even with Steven Stamkos and Anton Stralman out of the Lightning lineup, the Wings were still big underdogs. Yeah, there’s no fairy tale ending to what could potentially be Pavel Datsyuk’s last year in the NHL. The playoffs are cruel. Cold, even.

Cowboys 2016 Mock Draft 5.0, Final Version

No sooner had I done what I thought was going to be my final mock draft of the offseason for the Cowboys last week, two things happened. One, the Eagles traded up with the Browns to grab the second overall pick, thus basically ensuring that Jared Goff and Carson Wentz would be the first two picks off the board. Two, DeMarcus Lawrence went and got suspended for four games, joining Randy Gregory on the sidelines for the first month of 2016 and leaving Dallas comically thin at DE.

So, on the eve of the draft itself, I figure I’d better crank out one more mock using Fanspeak’s On the Clock simulator. Doing mock drafts may be an exercise in futility when it comes to actually predicting who will go in any particular draft slot, but it’s a great way to force yourself to become familiar with the draft class beyond the obvious big names.

The Cowboys are one of the teams who lean heavily on SPARQ scores to differentiate prospects, an approach pioneered by the Seahawks, so the players likely to be on the team’s radar are not necessarily the ones the pundits expect, and later-round surprises are almost a certainty.

I’m using Fanspeak’s own default big board again, after sticking with it on the first two mocks, the Drafttek board for mock 3.0 and CBS for 4.0, as it was updated yesterday. Version 1.0 saw Dallas pop for Carson Wentz with the fourth overall pick, while in version 2.0 they traded down with the Rams and nabbed Andrew Billings. Version 3.0 led with Jalen Ramsey, the player most likely to be at the top of the Cowboys’ actual draft board, while in version 4.0 they missed on Ramsey and settled for Vernon Hargreaves instead.

Velocity Elasticity

We talk about velocity quite a bit when evaluating pitching and rightly show concern when a pitcher loses it. Jeff Zimmerman has done a great job tracking and evaluating it both in his articles and constantly updated google docs. But while generally speaking more velocity is better, and losing velocity is costly (Zimmerman estimates a 1 mph drop raises a starter’s ERA by .28), not all pitchers respond to velocity changes the same way.