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DFS Amateur Hour – Friday Postscript

I’ll be setting Tuesday’s lineups in a subsequent post but need to catch up on Friday’s results. I bought in for $80 (two $25 contests and six $5 ones) and cashed for $97.50 for a profit of $17.50. My bankroll was 1310.10, now it’s $1327.60. I also won my $25 heads up against csuram88, putting me at 5-2 against the pros. Unfortunately, it was my highest score of the day, and I wasted it on a heads up.

It’s Time to Trade Jose Fernandez

We have had two massive Tommy John returns this year, first Matt Harvey back in April and more recently Jose Fernandez, who just completed his fourth start on Wednesday night. Expectations in the return from the surgery are generally tempered to account for the severity of the injury, but these two are bucking that trend. Harvey had an advantage over most guys with well over a year for his recovery. His surgery took place in October 2013 while Fernandez’s was done just last May.

Harvey’s season might be a worthwhile blueprint to get an idea of what Fernandez might do the rest of the way. Given what Fernandez has done thus far, maybe it’s not the extra time off that served Harvey so well and just the fact that he’s an amazing pitcher, much like Fernandez. Let’s stack the pair up through their first four starts:

Thru 4 Starts IP ERA WHIP K% BB% K:BB Velo-Pre Velo-Post
Harvey 26.7 3.04 0.94 29% 3% 10.3 96.7 96.9
Fernandez 26 2.77 0.96 31% 3% 10.7 96.6 96.7

Fernandez’s first four starts back have essentially matched Harvey and the excitement is similar to what it was for the Mets ace, too. Harvey didn’t stop there, through seven starts his ERA was down to 1.98 and he had a 26% strikeout rate with 56 in 54.7 innings, not to mention a sparkling 4% walk rate that gave him a 22% K-BB% (12% is league average for starters). We always hear how command and control are the shakiest elements in a pitcher’s game during the Tommy John return year, but through seven starts Harvey appeared to bucking that trend.

Then came the rough patch.

DFS Amateur Hour – Friday Lineups

I played a rare Thursday night slate yesterday only because Clayton Kershaw was going, and it was the right call – at least insofar as he was concerned. My hitting wasn’t great, so I wound up taking in $57.50 on $65 worth of lineups for a net of minus $7.50. My bankoll was 1317.60, now it’s $1310.10.

As for the two heads ups, I won the $25 won against 1ucror and lost the $10 one (barely) against maxdalury, putting me at 4-2 against the pros. Let’s take a look a tonight’s slate: