I actually planned to take the day off until Kevin Payne messaged me that a “Happy Hour” contest was up. These have a nice overlay, in today’s case $5000 in prize money for 574 $10 entries (-$740) plus 120 tickets to a $25 Grand Slam tomorrow equals $3000, minus the rake in that contest equals about $2,550. That means it’s $2550 – $740 or about $1800 of overlay (31%). That’s significant.
The 2015 season is winding down and for some teams, it’s already time to look toward 2016. Hopefully many of you are still hanging on every pitch in the midst of your pennant chase, but sometimes it just doesn’t work out and you have to start planning a little sooner than you wanted. Or maybe you get to start planning sooner. It totally stinks to have a losing in a fantasy keeper league, but it does allow you to get a jump on your 2016 keepers.
There are many different league types so not all keepers are created equally. Some leagues are just straight up keepers, you pick your three best players with no restrictions and go. Others cost a draft round creating different values and of course auction leagues have the dollar values and contract situations. Today I’m focusing on some deeper league keepers. Even if your 10-team mixed league uses draft round values, these guys likely wouldn’t make the cut because you are likely to have several better options.
These guys are definitely great Only-league keeper options and they deserve consideration in deeper mixed leagues, especially if round or dollar values are in play because they are almost certain to be inexpensive:
Jonathan Schoop [2B, BAL] – Schoop showed some power in his 2014 rookie campaign with 16 HR in 481 PA, but that was the extent of his production as it was paired with a .209/.244/.354 line as the primary second baseman with the Orioles. Schoop hit the ground running in April showing the power from last year with a lot less swing-and-miss yielding a .259/.310/.630 with 3 HRs in 29 PA. It was a tiny sample, but it started to build some excitement around the 23-year old before a takeout slide ripped his PCL and cost him two-plus months of the season.
I set eight lineups in a rush last night, and I got what was coming to me: a single $12.50 cash on a $60 investment. That brings my bankroll down to $1,408.61. It wasn’t that I didn’t like the players or pitchers I used – I had Clayton Kershaw in three, Raisel Iglesias in two and Aaron Nola in one – it was my impatience to put together anything that fit. The problem – if you can call it that – was I had to head out to Heather’s aunt’s house in Malibu, and I didn’t get there until 3:20 PT (45 minutes before lineup lock) and occasionally had to speak to everyone (including my three-and-a-half year old, Sasha, who was earnestly showing me her artwork as though it were the seminal masterpiece of our era) while I was finalizing my choices. There are worse reasons to screw up your lineups, so I’m not especially upset about it.
Another four $5 Rally lineups failed to cash Thursday, dropping my bankroll down to $1456.11. Here are the lineups for tonight:
|Pos||$25 GS||$||$5 Rally||$||$5 Rally||$||$5 Rally||$|
|Pos||$5 Rally||$||$5 Rally||$||$5 Rally||$||$5 Rally||$|
I set eight lineups total, one $25 Grand Slam and seven $5 Rallys. I’m not thrilled with these – I was rushed to get them done before the deadline, so I have bits and pieces of what I wanted to do, but didn’t think them out well enough. For example, I have a Mariners stack against John Danks, but it’s only in one place and attached to Max Scherzer who was probably my third or fourth favorite choice among pitchers.
All told, I used four pitchers: Clayton Kershaw (3), Scherzer (2), Raisel Iglesias (2) and Aaron Nola. Other heavily used players include: Troy Tulowitzki (4), Mike Trout (4), Yan Gomes (3), Chase Utley (3), Anthony Rendon (3), Giovanny Urshela (3), Andre Ethier (3), Brandon Moss (3) and Carl Crawford (3).
|Pos||$5 Rally||$||$5 Rally||$||$5 Rally||$|
|P||Cole||10000||de la Rosa||7300||Rodon||8300|
On the Sirius XM show, I picked out Rubby de la Rosa and a Nationals stack as my top choice for a lineup, but switched to Carlos Rodon because he’s got such electric stuff and is on a nice roll. But when I went to write this up, I realized the Mariners are better against lefties thanks to Nelson Cruz and got cold feet. So I checked the Inside Edge and RotoWire Optimizers for suggestions, and they both had Gerrit Cole in their optimal lineups. The Inside Edge one especially hated Rodon, projecting him to get shelled.
So I set one lineup with Cole, and I had to scrap a few a lot of my players as a result. But then I thought: “What if my Rodon or de la Rosa would-be lineups go off, and I switched it because I relied on an algorithm over my own instincts?” So I set an alternative lineup with each, just in case.
Incidentally, all three lineups have the following four players: Bryce Harper, Andrew McCutchen, Anthony Rendon and Evan Longoria.
Ask almost anyone what they think of Evan Gattis’ season – especially someone who was high on him coming into the season – and you’ll hear about how much of a disappointment he has been in 2015. Gattis has a .243 AVG, 22 HRs, and 69 RBIs through Wednesday. He ranks third among catchers and is basically having the same season as Brian McCann, who sits second to Buster Posey. Both Gattis and McCann have 22 HRs, Gattis has a .243 AVG with 69 RBIs and 53 R while McCann has a .245 AVG with 75 RBIs and 49 R.
Gattis has matched or tied his career-highs in the pertinent categories (save AVG where his best was last year’s .263) and even though he has needed more time to do that (his 478 PA are 71 more than his previous high), he still has over a month to pad these numbers. And he pissed away a whole month with his wretched April (.164 AVG, 2 HRs). For him to be heading into September on pace for a 28/87 season at catcher can’t be considered a disappointment.