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The O-Zone: Silly Philly
Posted by Joe Oberkrieser at 4/19/2007 2:37:00 PM
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Iím not going to try to explain whatís going on in Philadelphia. Moving Brett Myers to the bullpen? Itís so bizarre, and so foolish, that Iím having trouble wrapping my mind around it. But itís reality, and we need to talk about what it means for us in the fantasy world.

No question about it: Myers has been atrocious. He has an 8.82 ERA and 1.59 WHIP, and heís allowed five homers in just 16 1/3 innings.

Myers is going to rebound, though. I expect him to go to the bullpen and turn things around. I expect him back in the rotation before long. I expect him to pitch well once he returns to starting.

Why so confident? Let us count the ways:

1. Myers has a quality track record. Heís been very good the last two years: 3.72 ERA in 2005, 3.91 last season. Thatís the real Brett Myers, and the lousy 16 1/3 innings heís pitched thus far arenít enough to change that. Sixteen innings is a miniscule sample size and doesnít mean two fine years were a fluke.

2. Myersí strikeout rate is fine. The righty has whiffed 20 in 16 1/3 innings, so the stuff is still there.

3. Myers has had stinky stretches before but always managed to rebound. Look at last year: Myers had a 7.13 ERA in June Ö and 2.35 ERA in July. Then he had a 6.62 ERA in August Ö and 2.68 mark in September. Why canít he do the same this year?

4. Myersí home-run rate has exploded, but his struggles here are a bit fluky.

Gopheritis has long been Myersí nemesis. The last three years, heís allowed 31, 31 and 29 home runs. This season heís taken things to a new level, allowing five dingers in 16 1/3 innings. At that rate heíd give up 61 homers if he pitched 200 innings.

The problem here is easy to spot. Check out Myersí ground ball-to-fly ball ratios:

2004: 1.41

2005: 1.46

2006: 1.25

2007: 0.39

As you can see, Myersí fly-ball rate has exploded. No wonder heís allowing so many homers. However, I think this problem is a fluke, a small-sample-size anomaly. Sixteen fly ball-laden innings doesnít mean Myers is now a fly-ball pitcher. Now, if heís giving up this many flies at the All-Star break, then weíll talk. But for now we canít really be concerned.

Myersí fly-ball rate should return to normal before long, and with that, his gopheritis can be maintained at a reasonable level.

I would buy low. Get Myers now for next to nothing, stash him on your bench for a while Ö then enjoy when he turns things around and re-enters the rotation.


I bet it's hard - if not impossible - to get Myers now for "next to nothing," but maybe people can. Dunno.

If anyone out there does trade for Myers now, let's hear what you give up.

Posted by spianow at 4/19/2007 2:48:00 PM
At what point this year or even last could you get Meyers for nothing?????....... unless you play in a league where everyone is sporting an extra chromosome.......
Posted by Zenguerrilla at 4/19/2007 4:07:00 PM
I traded Myers for Wickman day before he was moved to bullpen.
Posted by ric11 at 4/19/2007 4:15:00 PM

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