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Price Check - Richie Sexson
Posted by Jeff Erickson at 6/6/2007 11:27:00 AM
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Inspired by Scott Pianowski's Bobby Abreu post, if you were re-drafting today, how much would you be willing to pay for Richie Sexson? In a 11-12 team AL-only 5x5 league, with a $260 budget.

I'll start the bidding at $12.

How about in a mixed league? I'd have to stop at $6-7.


Are we really giving up on him hitting .250 this year? I think I'd still go 8-9$ in a mixed league, he started very slow last year as well...
Posted by obzen at 6/6/2007 11:44:00 AM
Chris Liss and I were just talking about Sexon on the XM show. To me Sexson is a poster child for the slow-pitch softball player who's mis-valued in common fantasy leagues - a great power source, but he's runs-neutral, won't steal bases, and he takes on average risk. In an AL-only auction, I bid $1 then leave the room. Forced to sit and bid, I'm not going double-digits - begrudgingly I might take him at $6-8, but he never goes that cheap.

In a nutshell, a team of Teahens will beat a team of Sexsons. That's one of my philosophies.
Posted by spianow at 6/6/2007 12:06:00 PM
Avoiding the fact I don't really like Sexson for the same reasons, I'd probably give him a higher value; I'll raise Erickson in the AL format by $3 to $15. He's a slow starter normally. Looking at some of the splits over the years, his best is yet to come, and I'm sure others will notice it. Hopefully they'll out-bid me, and I can spend my money on the likes of Ryan Garko etc at CI. I've been stuck with him a time or two over the years and I hate it.
Posted by quon at 6/6/2007 2:18:00 PM
I'd go $16 in an AL only league. In a mixed, $3-$4, for the reasons Pianow says.
Posted by cliss at 6/6/2007 5:56:00 PM
How about JJ Hardy? As for Sexson......I rather spend my money elsewhere....
Posted by Zenguerrilla at 6/6/2007 9:48:00 PM
I would bid Two bits. he sucks
Posted by junior17 at 6/7/2007 8:46:00 AM
And when most of you spend for name-brand first basemen, I'll get Sexson much cheaper and get, on the low side, a .290 average, 25 HR and 75 RBI, which will be comparable to any first baseman in the league from now through the end of the season.
Posted by Jason Thornbury at 6/7/2007 5:16:00 PM
How do you figure .290, JT? Sexson has never hit higher than .271 in any full season, and he's a career .266 guy.
Posted by spianow at 6/7/2007 8:00:00 PM
Who is Jason Thornbury?? .290 from here to the end is RICK-DICULOUS! Sexson is like Pauly Walnuts will be this Sunday...a traitor to the BA.
Posted by asdfaf;jk;kl at 6/8/2007 7:14:00 AM
I figure .290 because he is batting .197 right now. To get to his .260-ish career average he's going to have to hit about .290 the rest of the way. He hit .294 from June on last season to finish at .264. Now, it is entirely possible that he'll suck all season, but that's a risk, if we were drafting today, I am willing to take (so I could spend the saved draft dollars elsewhere). Also, his hit rate has been incredibly low. His career rate entering the season was 30.6. It was at 16.8 a couple weeks ago (and his average was .162). It's at 21.2 percent now and likely will increase to his career norm.

And, asdfaf;jk;kl, I'd take that Pauly Walnuts bet.

Posted by Jason Thornbury at 6/8/2007 7:57:00 AM
Didn't Liss definitively debunk that BA-correction stuff elsewhere on site? I'm pretty sure he did.
Posted by spianow at 6/8/2007 8:09:00 AM
What Liss did was explain that BA-correction cannot be expected as a certainty, i.e. as the outcome of a coin flip is not affected by previous flips (though one could argue that hitting is not like coin flipping because a hitter can learn from his previous at-bats). What I am saying is that is a risk I am willing to take with Sexson given the circumstances (hit rate, career norms, etc.).
Posted by Jason Thornbury at 6/8/2007 8:51:00 AM
Sexson's 3-Year Splits

Pre All-Star 296/388/599
Post All-Star 237/326/474

Sexson is a notorious late starter, I'm disappointed you guys didn't note this.
Posted by sundaytripper at 6/8/2007 8:57:00 AM
Can you point me to the write? Never read it, but of course, disagree with Liss because it's my nature to disagree with Liss, even when he's right. And the outcome of a coin flip IS affected by the previous flip; stats 101 on probability calcs. I assume it's a bit more in-depth than that.
Posted by quon at 6/8/2007 10:23:00 AM
It came from this article in the comments section:

Here are the remarks:

No, that's the gambler's fallacy. If you flip a coin, and it comes up heads 10 times in a row, it's not more likely to be tails the 11th time to "make up for it". It's still 50/50 going forward for each flip. It won't undo the old flips. Moreover, if you were to believe that a players who starts off poorly will make up for his poor start by being better than his skills would suggest, you're left with the proposition that a bad start bodes well for future success. If a .300 hitter bats .250 in the first half, that's great, because we know he'll bat .350 in the second. But it would be even better if he batted .200, because now he has to hit .400. That's clearly not the way it works. If Manny Ramirez were better .200 at the break with no home runs, I'd be very worried if I owned him. I wouldn't expect 35 HR and a .400 avg. in half a season to make up for it.
posted by: cliss at 5/4/2007 8:41:00 AM
Posted by Jason Thornbury at 6/8/2007 10:38:00 AM
Thorn, I respectfully offer that we need to have a side prop on Sexson and batting average. You know where to e-me. All in good fun and mutual respect, and I'll be sure to spend your donation on a worthy cause.
Posted by spianow at 6/8/2007 10:42:00 AM
Sexson normally hits for a high average on Thursdays, against left-handers who are shorter than 6-2 and have a last name ending in a vowel. As luck would have it, the Mariners haven't faced a lot of those guys this year.
Posted by spianow at 6/8/2007 10:43:00 AM
You're on. My worthy cause will be beer.
Posted by Jason Thornbury at 6/8/2007 10:47:00 AM
If you are going to dismiss the splits by being funny, at least be funny.
Posted by sundaytripper at 6/8/2007 1:14:00 PM
That was pretty funny. Sexson apologists need to realize that without steroids or HGH, Sexson is a B-U-M.

And Pauly Walnuts is a R-A-T.
Posted by sdousfiuyuoy at 6/9/2007 6:27:00 AM
I don't think Paulie is a rat - at least, not to the Fibbies. Maybe to the NY crew. I'm pretty sure one of Tony Sirico's contract riders way back when he agreed to do the show was that they'd never portray him as a rat.
Posted by Erickson at 6/9/2007 11:39:00 AM
I was referring to NY, as the popular speculation leads us that way. I hope not. Too bad I am landing in San Diego at 9PM tomorrow night....means by the time I rent a car and get to the hotel, there will be 5 minutes left in the show - Plus, going TO the west coast means I can't catch the replay like I could on the east coast. Going to be difficult to plug my ears all day while people talk about it...argh.
Posted by sdousfiuyuoy at 6/9/2007 12:08:00 PM
We'll see - I think that's more of a head-fake by Chase. I'm guessing if there's a rat, it's not Paulie. I'm not even sure it'll be completely dispositive to the outcome if there is one. Can't wait to find out. Good luck trying to find a way to watch the show before the spoilers come out.
Posted by Erickson at 6/9/2007 1:25:00 PM
Just for the record, sdousfiuyuoy, I am not a Sexson apologist. He is the most overpaid firstbasemen in baseball, possibly the most overpaid player in baseball. He is not good.

Posted by Jason Thornbury at 6/13/2007 8:00:00 AM

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