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My Tout Wars Trade
Posted by Jeff Erickson at 8/3/2007 2:59:00 PM
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I just made a trade with Joe Sheehan from Baseball Prospectus. I've been in first place in AL Tout Wars since the early part of May and I'm confident that I put together a pretty decent squad. However, my weakness has been in starting pitching - both my WHIP (thank you Roger for that fine outing yesterday) and wins are hurting. For more details, you can see the standings and the rosters.

My primary competition for the past few months has been Matthew Berry from and Sam Walker, author of Fantasyland. Both have been active on the trade market and both have been closing the gap - just a day ago, Matthew was just four points behind.

While I'm a little worried about blowing up my offense, I think I need to be aggressive, and not just wait for the competition to make their move. I've been trying to trade a closer with little success so far - with a 14-save lead over second place and owning Papelbon and Putz, I need to make a deal, but it's hard to find people willing to trade for saves.

Anyhow, Joe needed offense and approached me about trading for Lackey. I came back and told him that I couldn't trade any speed in the deal. Ultimately, I made him two offers:

1. Robinson Cano for Lackey.
2. Manny Ramirez and Jason Kubel for Lackey and basically a throw-in (he has both Freddie Bynum and Brandon Wood active in the MI right now) - Alex Cora or Marco Scutaro.

He wanted Manny, but while I balked at doing it straight up, he thought that Kubel was too valuable. We finally agreed on:

Manny + Santiago Casilla
Lackey + Jason Michaels

I know that the acquisition of Kenny Lofton squeezes Michaels a little, but Michaels still has some value in this league. Right now, there is literally not a single active outfielder on the waiver wire, and only two that have had any at-bats in the last two weeks: Darnell McDonald and Jon Knott, both sent down since. Adam Jones has been on someone's reserve all year.

So, did I blow up my team unnecessarily, or was this a good move?


I have never played roto-always been in a points league-but man, that is tight at the top of the batting average category. You could drop four spots in a hurry there unless you plug in an average guy to make up for Manny and his .300 average.
Posted by cwitt at 8/3/2007 3:50:00 PM
From what I see Lackey's next starts are sunday @ oak, minny, @ tor, ny, tor, tex, cle, @ balt.....looks like a fair deal to me......I would maybe give you a slight edge.......real men play in no trade leagues....come on now! :-)
Posted by Zenguerrilla at 8/3/2007 9:49:00 PM
What's that mean - "real men play in no trade leagues?"

Part of the skill in fantasy baseball is adjusting to the luck and/or misfortune that comes your way, and in the art of the deal. It's not a keeper league, so there's no dumping involved. It's all about teams trying to better themselves.

That said, if it *were* a no-transaction league, I'd be doing even better, in part because I've had fewer injuries than most. But in a league where it's a 12-team, AL-only league, with six-man reserve rosters *and* unlimited DL slots, you have to trade to adjust to your needs. There's just precious little out there to grab.
Posted by Erickson at 8/3/2007 9:55:00 PM
No Trade League????? Isn't that a big part of fantasy sports? Hmmm maybe no pickups either, make it really simple, no trade league=no brain league.
Anyway.....I wouldn't have traded Manny, as much as Mike Cameron will tail off in the second half, Manny will pick up his pace. I was explaining to my wife today that I knew at the All-Star break that Andruw Jones wasn't going to end up the year hitting .205 so like a good stock, he was good to target (also see Brad Lidge, early June). Lackey has peaked, if you get his first half numbers in the second half, your lucky. And the Indians didn't trade for Lofton to sit him the second half-next to Sizemore they have NO speed, meaning Michaels is nothing. (BTW how many players have been called up in the last week-Gathright, Jones, Duncan), so how many will be called up in the coming weeks?) You didn't obviously get robbed, but I wouldn't call you the winner.....
Posted by kevinccp at 8/4/2007 12:05:00 AM
Talent-wise, you did OK Jeff. In terms of your specific standings position though:

- you won't lose more than one point in BA (worst you can do is 9th at this point, I think)
- HR is a dangerous category -- you could drop a few points, including one to Barry
- you won't drop more than two points in RBI, but again Barry is only eight RBI back.

Net: You minus five or six, Barry plus two. You might erode a point or so in Runs too, depending on how much playing time Michaels actually gets.

That means between ERA (can't see you gaining more than two points there), WHIP (potential three point gain) and Wins (two points, maybe?) you've got to make up those eight or so points. You did solidify your 2nd place finish in K's, and you could still pull it off, but it'll be a near thing. I'm not sure you did more that shuffle around some statistical deck chairs.

To me this really would've come down to who I'd trust to produce over the last two months - Manny or Lackey.

Now if you'll excuse me, I have to figure out whether I want to trade my $3A Hanley Ramirez in the staff league to put myself over the top for the title...
Posted by ESiegrist at 8/4/2007 6:26:00 AM
20/20 hindsight and all, but did you try to get Ross Gload from Joe? You could have shifted Teahen to OF to replace Manny (he's got Howie Clark on the bench to take over at CR) and given his and Michaels' respective roster situations I think I'd rather have the guy with the current starting job.
Posted by ESiegrist at 8/4/2007 6:33:00 AM
Real LAZY men play in no trade leagues. Trading is EVERYTHING in my league. You don't trade, you don't win. Besides, trading is almost more fun than winning, so why would you exclude it?

Maybe you could auto-draft your league, allow no trades or FA pickups and just see what the computer-drafted team will do for you. That would be exciting!!!
Posted by lvtdude at 8/4/2007 11:58:00 AM
First off Erickson I said no trade not no agent pick ups are a must in any fantasy game.....Reading your takes on no trading just proves one all play for peanuts......I play in both, trade and no trade......Lvdude you are either really young or not to bright if you can't firgue out why a league wouldn't allow trading.....Entry fee is $1000 and you play with 15 other owners who you don't trading = no bullsh*t to paint a picture for you.......Unfortunaltely, you can't always count on everyone to be honorable when a good chunk of change is involved...........If you can't do well or win a league that doesn't allow trading that only proves one aren't as good as you think you The biggest thing that RUINS the fun of a fantasy league is when B.S. deals get through....a veto policy can help curb that but not all the is fun, I agree....but deals that go through like overbay/blanton for puljos get annoying.....
Posted by Zenguerrilla at 8/5/2007 11:05:00 AM
I understand where you're coming from with that - dump trades are the biggest point of contention in keeper leagues. In a non-keeper league, if you can't trust the members of the league to be honorable or the commish to properly oversee the league, then it's not worth it to play with them, no?

For my dollar, vetoes have caused just as much dissension as lack of vetoes.

In an NFBC-style, format, that's entirely a different animal, and I can understand the motivation for banning trades. That doesn't make it a superior league, though - just a different style of format.
Posted by Erickson at 8/5/2007 1:07:00 PM
Real men don't measure their manhood by the rules of their fantasy sports leagues...
Posted by ESiegrist at 8/6/2007 12:54:00 AM
Real men don't eat quiche - although I had a fabulous one for brunch this weekend.
Posted by sycophant9 at 8/6/2007 12:54:00 PM
For the record, trading is never more fun than winning.
Posted by vtadave at 8/7/2007 9:23:00 PM
Heh, the real men take was meant to mean how much you pay for an entry fee if that was over any of your heads.....I haven't come accross to many leagus with a 1k entry fee where they allow trading......they are probalby out there I just don't see them.....I agree with vtadave....if I didn't care about winning I would play in free yahoo leagues........
Posted by Zenguerrilla at 8/7/2007 9:45:00 PM

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