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MLB Notes
Posted by Dalton Del Don at 4/27/2008 6:22:00 PM
View more posts by this author

 

Any chance of buying Josh Beckett relatively low vanished with Sunday’s brilliant performance. He doesn’t come without some questions healthwise, but since he’s never had any arm issues, he’s not a huge risk. Beckett now has 29 strikeouts over 26.1 innings and remains my choice to win the Cy Young this season. Johan Santana and Jake Peavy are the only two pitchers I’d rather own.

Ryan Garko is now hitless over his last 19 at-bats, bringing his season average down to .238. With a 13:13 K:BB ratio, it’s not like he’s being overmatched, so he’s a good buy-low. There’s still major RBI potential in that lineup.

Sticking with the buy-low theme, I’m targeting Phil Hughes right now. The 10 walks are ugly, but this is a pitcher with serious talent who will consistently receive plenty of run support. His BABIP (.390) and strand rate (.55) are both ridiculously unlucky, and his schedule has been awfully tough, including four straight road starts. Go get him.

It’s becoming increasingly possible 2006 will go down as Jose Reyes’ career-year. He’s running less, his slugging is down and his strikeouts are up. He’s still going to be an extremely valuable fantasy player, but it’s surprising just how much he’s regressed. Here are his OPSs by month, since April ended last season: .697, .829, .770, .733, .612, .652.

If I own Alex Rodriguez and can get Hanley Ramirez for him, I’d do it without hesitation.

Shawn Chacon’s ERA and K:BB ratio are mutually exclusive. Seriously, how can someone post such an impressive ERA (2.45) and WHIP (1.27) while walking as many batters as he’s striking out? The short answer: a .232 BABIP. I would say sell-high, but that would be an insult to your league’s intelligence. Stay far, far away.

Last week I said “Cliff Lee’s trade value will never be higher.” Oops. Another complete game shutout later, I’m grubbing on some crow. Lee can be viewed as nothing other than a sell-high with those numbers, but unless you are getting elite talent in return, might as well hold onto him. He’s currently throwing better than he ever has, including 2005. An incredibly easy schedule has helped, but Lee is off to the best start by a starting pitcher in the last 50 years.

When Barry Zito signed the richest contract ever for a pitcher, I thought it was going to look bad over the second half of the deal. That it already looks like the worst deal in the history of sports with six years and $106 million remaining puts the franchise in quite a rare position. The team can’t possibly dump him like the Pirates did Matt Morris, but Zito is a huge liability every fifth game, and something needs to change before long.

Listening to sports talk on the radio often leads to me narrowly avoiding accidents. When evaluating pitchers, about 90 percent of the time hosts or local newspaper reporters bring up win/loss records. There is not a more irrelevant stat in all of sports.

Did ESPN really use the word “shocking” when reacting to Josh Howard admitting to smoking weed during the offseason? Really, NBA players do that sort of thing? In other news, the government will ask for taxes, you will eventually die and water is wet.

Speaking of ESPN, how come they kept missing so many picks during the NFL Draft? Each pundit seemed far too busy worried about getting face time than the actual picks themselves. And I’m not big on the new trends of knowing who the top-5 picks are going to be beforehand and watching the players put on their new teams’ hats before the pick is announced. Where’s the drama?

Jonathan Sanchez, AKA “Dirty Sanchez,” simply cannot be left unowned in any fantasy league right now. After an absolute gem Friday (10:1 K:BB ratio), he’s now fanned 36 batters over 28 innings this season. He’s always had plus stuff, but maybe now he’s also figuring out how to pitch. You’d still like to see fewer walks, but he’s awfully tough to hit and has the ballpark and division working for him.

If you’re bored Monday night, I’ll be representing RotoWire in a fantasy football draft that can be watched live here. I have the sixth pick, so keep your fingers crossed Edgerrin James slips.


Comments....

If I own Reyes, I'm not as concerned about his OPS as I am about the fact that he is not running. People paid big money for his steals and he isn't stealing. That's a problem.

I agree Hanley is more valuable, fantasy-wise, than ARod. (And I said in pre-season that ARod was over-hyped and that he was more likely to repeat his 2004-2006 than his 2007.) Another example of how you can't pay for last year.

Zito needs to go into long relief or to the minors. Seriously. He's killing the team every fifth game. I agree you can't cut him (yet) - but let him work out his issues in such a way that it won't harm the team so badly.

You're doing a football draft already? Wow.
Posted by MPStopa at 4/27/2008 6:34:00 PM
 
This weekend's draft HAS to be taken into context when drafting for the next football's season-Parker took a big hit. Mark, love the Bills DPs, they have always down good in the draft. 3D been playing MarioKart all day, play Waluigi, he makes the oddest noises.....No mention of the Max Scherzer callup? He's this year's Lincecum (I know it sacreligious to say that). I'll give you 3 to 1 Beckett doesn't win the AL Cy Young. Brow beat time: your Bball picks in the East are now 4-3, not the 7-0 you predicted and I went against. I'll help with football draft, Derek Anderson can't go high enough, and at 6th remember Marion Barber, if he's still around. Wait now that I'm thinking about it and you're like NE yesterday, Brady, Moss, LT, Manning, Peterson. Who do you take at 6th that's a tough spot, respond after the draft. Nice blog again 3D.
Posted by kevinccp at 4/27/2008 6:50:00 PM
 
I haven't given it much thought, but my initial reaction is that if I am at six then I am getting one of Brady, Moss, LT, Addai, Westbrook, and APeterson.
Posted by MPStopa at 4/27/2008 7:25:00 PM
 
I'm thinking it's Addai or Westbrook.
Posted by kevinccp at 4/27/2008 7:27:00 PM
 
Right. Reyes' OPS is more of a real baseball problem than fantasy, although his lower OBP is affecting his SB totals.
Posted by Dalton Del Don at 4/27/2008 9:09:00 PM
 
Kevin - I told everyone to pick up Max Scherzer in my blog last week. So yes, he's a must add in every format...I probably wouldn't take that 3/1 bet - for you to have the field it would take higher odds...At least I got the Spurs over Suns right. I might be off on the amount of games it takes to win, but I should finish 7 out of 8. I'm kicking myself for not taking N.O. Dallas isn't any good, especially with Kidd.
Posted by Dalton Del Don at 4/27/2008 9:15:00 PM
 
Addai is No. 2 on my board, so I'd be pumped if he fell. I love M. Barber, but I guess he has to get slightly bumped down after the Felix Jones selection. I personally won't draft Moss or Brady that high...Mariokart is great.
Posted by Dalton Del Don at 4/27/2008 9:16:00 PM
 
so who's your top 6 then?
Posted by MPStopa at 4/27/2008 9:25:00 PM
 
Here's a question: Who sucks more? Zito or Andruw Jones?
Posted by MPStopa at 4/27/2008 9:28:00 PM
 
Zito, but it is fairly close.
Posted by Dalton Del Don at 4/27/2008 9:30:00 PM
 
If I reveal that Stopa, then it'd ruin the excitement of picking up the superb RotoWire Fantasy Football magazine, coming out this summer!
Posted by Dalton Del Don at 4/27/2008 9:33:00 PM
 
Dalton, stop padding your comment totals! No mention of Delgado's two dongs yesterday? Wasn't one of them off of Smoltz? And I was saying Ramirez over ARod in the preseason! Now it's a no brainer. As for Howard smoking weed, it reminds me of getting busted my freshman year in college for breaking a dorm window, and the dean told me she was surprised that me and a couple other guys were engaging in underage drinking on the campus! I kept my mouth shut, but she had to notice my jaw drop. SEVENTY-FIVE PERCENT of everyone age 18 and up was getting wasted on a regular basis. She had no idea.

The NBA is ridiculous with this because weed in the offseason presents no problems in reality. It's not like steroids where someone's getting an unfair advantage - and it's not like cocaine where there's potential for overdose or aggressive behavior. The only issue is the perception - it's a mostly black league dependent on a mostly white audience (half of which also smoke weed, but 10 percent of which are morally outraged that anyone would). It's unfair because half the audience is on Xanax, Prozac, Viagra and all sorts of pharmaceuticals, but it is what it is.

The NBA should stop pandering to the advertisers, continue to put out a good product as they have this season and crack down only on offenses that damage the product - not some imaginary perception of it.
Posted by cliss at 4/28/2008 9:27:00 AM
 
RW keeps track of comment totals?
Posted by MPStopa at 4/28/2008 10:10:00 AM
 
Do you get a prize or something?
Posted by MPStopa at 4/28/2008 10:10:00 AM
 
Please do tell.
(OK, that's enough).
Posted by MPStopa at 4/28/2008 10:11:00 AM
 
Robin Williams had a funny joke once about that skier who got booted from the Olympics a while back for smoking pot. He said something like, the only way pot is a performing-enhancing drug is if at the end of the ski run is the world's largest Snickers bar. That summed it up pretty well, I thought.

Posted by Jason Thornbury at 4/28/2008 11:31:00 AM
 
That skier was actually a snowboarder and he got to keep the gold medal.

Ross Rebagliatti is Canadian, where pot isn't treated as hypocritcially as it is in America. Liss' comments are bang on about race and weed consumption methinks.

The reality is that weed, which is legal in Switzerland,
would be legal in Canada if not for perpetual pressure
from the United States to not do so.

Like Tupac said, stop the war on drugs and start a war on poverty!
Posted by PMain at 4/28/2008 2:44:00 PM
 
Don't know about Canada, but the U.S. government launched a "War on Poverty" in 1964. Poverty won.
Posted by Jason Thornbury at 4/28/2008 4:01:00 PM
 
Chris - Dude, padding my comment stats is largely how I gain most of my self-confidence, but now that you called me out on it, it won't be as easy. Seriously, most of the time I just like addressing each person separately....Delgado's jack came off a hurtin Smoltzie who wasn't reaching 90 mph, but you personally got to love the 2 bombs...You did call HRam over ARod before the season. Props...Agreed about the NBA stuff.
Posted by Dalton Del Don at 4/28/2008 5:09:00 PM
 

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