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Let's Talk Baseball
Posted by Mark Stopa at 5/16/2008 1:18:00 PM
View more posts by this author

 

In the DDD mode, here are some random MLB thoughts...

Player A. .235 AVG, 4HR, 7SB, 20 runs, 12 RBI

Player B. .255 AVG, 3HR, 8SB, 20 runs, 16 RBI

Player B is Alexis Rios.

Player A? (drumroll, please)

Corey Patterson. People love Rios but hate on Patterson. Why? Obviously Rios is the better player, and I know Bruce is coming up at some point, but with the Reds rebuilding, I say Griffey and/or Dunn gets traded and that Patterson plays all year. The AVG isn't great and never will be, but he's been the victim of an unlucky BABIP. The counting stats are real - people should stop hating on him.

You may have noticed that Blaine Boyer got the save the other night. But did you know he's striking out more than a batter per inning and has 6 Ks for every walk? With the health issues surrounding Soriano and Smoltz and Acosta's less than dominating stats, Boyer is a solid sleeper to close in ATL this year.

I wouldn't be bidding too crazily on Jerry Hairston. A slump is coming. He's a career journeyman for a reason.

Remember all that pre-season talk about Pujols elbow injury? Seems just like that at this point, talk.

Joey Devine is putting up some sick stats. Those of you who just lost Santiago Casilla to injury should take a look. 20Ks, only 3 walks, WHIP .85

Scott Downs has the quietest five saves in history. He's the clear handcuff to BJ Ryan. And remember, Ryan is still just one year post-Tommy John, so I'd hardly be surprised to see him have a setback. See F.Liriano.

Put a fork in Sheffield, he's done. And all that talk about Detroit scoring 1,000 runs this year? That's done, too. They're a .500 team at best unless Verlander straightens things out.

Lance Berkman would spontaneously combust if he were any hotter. But if you can trade him for Braun, Miguel Cabrera, or another superstar who's been struggling a bit, I'd pull the trigger in an instant. Experts won't bite, but impatient novices might.

I'd also sell high on Chipper. You know a DL stint is coming at some point.


Comments....

Nice to see a blog from you Mark. Your dead on about everything-except Pujols. If you are in a keeper league the elbow will need to be addressed at some point, even if it's not this year. Speaking of Verlander, I'm trying to trade for him in every league. Think Sabathia about 3 three weeks ago. Due to the number of mentions, you now officially have a man crush on Boyer.
Posted by kevinccp at 5/16/2008 1:36:00 PM
 
Thanks Kevin. The only way to describe how I feel about Boyer is to compare it to how I felt about Fred Jackson before he got his start against the Redskins - I was telling everybody about him over and over again (at a time when nobody was paying attention to him). Just a feeling I guess (plus the numbers are there). We'll see if he pans out in the way FJax did.
Posted by MPStopa at 5/16/2008 1:48:00 PM
 
Good work Mark. Now let's mix in a few pop-culture references (Tony/Jessica, the relevance today of Adam Sandler, etc.), and you're set.

I wouldn't count out the Tigers just yet. Verlander will come around, and even if Sheffield doesn't, there's always a certain moody slugger out there trolling for work.

I wouldn't sell Chipper unless I get a real nice package in return. He's carrying my NL-only team right now if you entered the season with him as your 3B/CI, you knew the risks and likely have a contingency plan.

Sorry, but I don't trust anyone named Blaine...remember that dude from Sixteen Candles?


Posted by vtadave at 5/16/2008 2:59:00 PM
 
Stopa,

I like your Blog. I have three Tiger offensive players and Verlander, so I hope you are wrong. Right now, you are on target.
Posted by jhermann at 5/16/2008 3:05:00 PM
 
I think Berkmann is having a special type of season and would prefer him over a Braun or Cabrera type.
Posted by djm1144 at 5/16/2008 3:26:00 PM
 
Thanks guys. Dave, with kids ages 2, 3, and 4, and being a lawyer who bills 2,000 hours a year, I don't have time for pop culture stuff. About all I can add is discussions about Disney's "Cars" or the "Finding Nemo" stuff that Jeff talked about recently.

Hermann, I have Cabrera and I to think he will hit, but the Tigers offense as a whole is going to disappoint, at least as compared to preseason expectations.

DM, Berkman's track record is clear. I can't imagine he's having a career year at his age. I think it's just a hot streak. A really hot streak, true, but I say he falls back into his career norms before too long. No way I'd give up Braun, Cabrera, or Fielder for him, esp. in a keeper league.
Posted by MPStopa at 5/16/2008 4:23:00 PM
 
Berkman (minus the xtra n) is the biggest sell high candidate right now. I would give even odds that Cabrera or Braun has more HRs at the end of the year. Dave also thought Milledge was going to be 30-30 which I will bring up til he admits he was WAY wrong about this (as is his predictions about the J-E-T-S). Mark move back to Buffalo, no better blue collar town, the Rays will never catch (or any other FLA team) on despite their talent. BTW Soriano is on fire, Joyce appears to be a hitter for the Tigers doubters.
Posted by kevinccp at 5/16/2008 7:39:00 PM
 
Oh and ask Erickson, if you got some commentary about the kid's movies, some of us have seen them....Doc, Towmater...Disney has a great Nemo ride which has little wait any time of the year....this is all valuable input.
Posted by kevinccp at 5/16/2008 7:42:00 PM
 
SORRY, lastly when is someone going to comment on the ridiculous W-L effect on home court advantage for the NBA playoffs?
Posted by kevinccp at 5/16/2008 7:45:00 PM
 
I just got offered Cook, for Franklin I need starters: here is my staff; Franklin, K. Wood, Mota, Marmol, Broxton, Saito, Wellmeyer, C. Young, Lowe, and I do have Smoltz on the D.L.
Posted by cmahn13 at 5/16/2008 8:06:00 PM
 
Or I could give him K. Wood. Its a keeper league and I can't carry Wood over but I can Take Franklin with me. Do people think that Franklin can keep that closer job.. ?
Posted by cmahn13 at 5/16/2008 8:16:00 PM
 
Never mind I cant Keep Franklin so I would only trade Franklin for Cook.. What do You all think??????
Posted by cmahn13 at 5/16/2008 8:22:00 PM
 
I'd want Franklin over Cook. Franklin's value will probably be higher in a week or so, after he's racked up a couple of saves and Izzy is an afterthought on the DL. But as a keeper, Perez is the long-term answer at closer for STL, not Franklin.
Posted by MPStopa at 5/16/2008 8:27:00 PM
 
Well, MPStopa Did you see my post with my Pitching Staff, I have 4 1/2 closer, and I need Wins 3rd from last would that change your mind or still stick with Franklin?

Posted by cmahn13 at 5/16/2008 8:37:00 PM
 
It's too early in the year to get a bad value in a trade just to fill a need. If you have a need, find a way to fill it where you don't lose value in a trade.
Posted by MPStopa at 5/16/2008 8:55:00 PM
 
Yo Stopa, glad to see the blog, nice work. As someone about to become a lawyer billing 2000 hours (just graduated NYU law) I'm glad to see you have time for fantasy sports, even if your pop culture knowledge has to suffer.

I ended up bidding $38 to get Bourn last week but feel better about my $1 pick up of Boyer. At least Bourn finally got a hit and a SB tonight.

I understand your comparison of Rios and Patterson from a "Patterson's not so bad" perspective, but do you think Rios is overrated? I'm not sure if you're advocating him as a sell right now. My perception is that people think he's a sexy upside player and if he's not hitting for AVG or HR's, he may bring back better value in a trade.

cmahn, what kind of league are you playing in? what are you doing with so many relievers?




Posted by obzen at 5/16/2008 9:44:00 PM
 
obzen, I made that comparison between Rios and Patterson because I owned both in staff league and they were right next to each other on my roster - so the comparison really jumped out at me - their stats were side by side. And I traded Rios becuase yes, I'm not a big fan. Only 3 HR, he will probably run less hitting in the 3 hole, and with Wells out Toronto can't score many runs. He's still a good player, I'm just ... I don't know. He had a long homerless drought last year - I guess I don't see him elevating himself into the top echelon of fantasy players. I certainly don't see him surpassing last year's numbers. I wouldn't be surprised if he disappoints. The problem with trading him now is that his AVG looks pretty bad due to a recent slump. I'd consider trading high if he has a few good games and gets his AVG back up.

As for Bourn, he only has to hit a little to get the steals that he needs to make him worth it. How many other players are going to get you two steals each week?
Posted by MPStopa at 5/17/2008 6:22:00 AM
 
Also, Obzen, I think being a lawyer is 10 times better than law school. Sometimes the hours are long, but the crazy cram sessions (for exams) are gone, you get on a regular schedule, and then of course there's the pay.
Posted by MPStopa at 5/17/2008 7:14:00 AM
 
I hear ya on Rios, Mark. And I do expect his average to rise again soon enough.

I'm also glad to hear you say that about law vs law school. I'm glad to be done with school.
Posted by obzen at 5/17/2008 11:47:00 AM
 
Kevin- I may have let my anti-minaya/anti-milledge trade feelings cloud my judgment and lead me to believe that Milledge was the next coming of Willie Mays. It looks like I was wrong in thinking that Milledge was an enormous 5 tool talent and I was definitely wrong in thinking that the Mets lost out on the milledge for schneider and church trade- Church has been the Mets best player to date.

As for my Jets prediction- I stand behind it 100%- Their offense is positioned to be league average and their defense is looking to be absolutely dominant. Factor in their always excellent special teams and the fact that mangenius is their coach- 12-4 and the division isnt just extremely possible, its likely.

"It looks like Tom Brady saw a Gholston"
Posted by djm1144 at 5/17/2008 1:22:00 PM
 
It's too early to evaluate that Milledge trade. Give it a couple of years.

As for the Jets, DM I will give you 10 to 1 odds that they finish with less than 12 wins. We can bet as much or as little as you want.
Posted by MPStopa at 5/17/2008 1:42:00 PM
 
Stopa- Id be willing to go 50 "units" on the Jets winning 12 games or more- Send me an email if your interested and want to work out details
Posted by djm1144 at 5/17/2008 2:17:00 PM
 
50 units on the Jets winning 12 games or more? By "units", you must mean "Schrutte Bucks". Have some more Jets Kool-Aid. Seriously, if you want give large sums of money away, let me know because I'm getting married next year and would love the extra cash.
Posted by dvr9484 at 5/17/2008 3:16:00 PM
 
Stopa:

Just to let you know. I traded Berkman for Wright. I am a huge Mets fan, and always wanted Wright on one of my teams. I actually did not think the other team would accept the trade given that the season is still so young. I only offered the trade because of your blog. A big thanks!!! Now, Wright just needs to step it up.
Posted by jhermann at 5/17/2008 3:35:00 PM
 
jhermann- thats pretty funny, im actually in talks to trade Wright for Berkman
Posted by djm1144 at 5/17/2008 3:55:00 PM
 
DVR- id be willing to make the same wager with you- just let me know if your interested
Posted by djm1144 at 5/17/2008 3:57:00 PM
 
wright started off pretty good today. I love when they get a home run and a steal in the same game.

How come everyone keeps talking about selling high on Mclouth for players such as kemp,rios,etc. Mclouth has been showing very nice power since the middle of last season, and he's a pretty solid base stealer. I think his on base percentage is surprisingly high, which makes me think that he'll continue to be a very solid player. I project 28 home runs and 23 steals. Very nice.
Posted by joey'scookies at 5/17/2008 3:57:00 PM
 
Dave,
Thanks for the admission, I'll stop my ridiculous ranting now. I admire your loyalty, something I've been told is my strongest trait (especially when you root for the Bills and Sabres). If the Bills don't win the AFC East, I'll root for anyone but the Pats. EVERYONE thought the Mets lost out, but I put this in a blog that I thought the Mets knew something about Milledge the rest of the common world didn't- not to say he won't work out in the long run. Church was a good trade-for the money he's owed and the stats he puts up or was projected to put up. Another important factor that we miss watching fantasy stats is Schneider's (I probably butchered that) play calling. Pelfrey and Maine are thriving, and I gotta believe his playcalling is helping their cause.
Posted by kevinccp at 5/17/2008 6:42:00 PM
 
Rickie Weeks.... what a weird year he's having.... on pace for 120 runs, 19 homers 50 rbis and 27 SBs....

All while hitting an outrageously bad .187....

As I type this Weeks just made ANOTHER error in the field... and earlier in the game he made another blunder on the bases...So, clearly he's starting to see the mental effects of the struggles at the plate. I have to wonder how long before the Brewers make a change and move Weeks to the bottom of the order or to the minors to "figure things out"

If I were the Brew Crew I'd just let him work things out every day at the top of the lineup since he's doing OK statistically with everything except AVG
Posted by billgoofnow at 5/17/2008 8:02:00 PM
 
jhermann, getting Wright for Berkman is a tremendous coup. I'm glad my blog helped give you the idea. Trust me, you will be happy you did that deal. I wish I owned Berkman so I could get a pull like that.

DM, didn't you write an article before the season saying that Wright should be drafted second overall? Berkman's hot streak has changed your mind that much? As for our bet, I don't want to take your money, so how about this: when I win, you have to post a comment in one of my blog that says "I am a dunce." No explanation, nothing else - just a comment that says "I am a dunce." If you win the bet, I will do the same in five of your blogs. Deal?

Kevin, you HAVE to be loyal to be a Bills' fan.

Posted by MPStopa at 5/17/2008 8:28:00 PM
 
Stopa- Your backing out of the wager suggests to me your respect for the J-E-T-S JETS JETS JETS and belief that the Mangenius will be taking the division from bellicheat. I like it. Although I would like to win $500 units from you.

As for Berkman, I think hes having a special season and theres no good reason he cant keep it up. Its not as if hes ancient or unproven. Berkman's torrid start to this season as well as his 18 for 23 display of awesomeness has led me to believe that he is a better fantasy value for this season than David Wright.
Posted by djm1144 at 5/17/2008 9:44:00 PM
 
All right, DM, I don't feel guilty taking your money any more. I'll take the bet. But how do I know you will pay (once the Jets get their fifth loss by Week 8)?
Posted by MPStopa at 5/17/2008 10:04:00 PM
 
I will also give you 2:1 odds that Wright finishes as a more valuable fantasy player than Berkman. Does rotowire have a player rater for roto scoring? If not, I'm sure we can find one somewhere (as if it won't be clear that Wright is better when he finishes with the same power numbers but a better average and 25 more steals).
Posted by MPStopa at 5/17/2008 10:07:00 PM
 
Stopa- I am an honest guy who attended xavier high school (nyc), villanova university and albany law school- You know my education background and you already know where I sometimes "work" as a fantasy blogger. I promise I will pay you the $50 if the Jets dont win and I would expect you to make the same promise. I also promise to pay you 50 units if Wright finishes with a better ranking for the season than Berkman. And I expect you to make the same promise. Im writing down these bets in my Treo as we speak. And for the record, that is- 5:1 for the Jets bet and 2:1 for the Berkman bet.
Posted by djm1144 at 5/17/2008 10:22:00 PM
 

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