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Don't Give Up, Don't Ever Give Up
Posted by Dalton Del Don at 6/8/2008 11:51:00 PM
View more posts by this author

 

Iíve done my fair share of bragging, so I wanted to go a different route today. On the ďAsk An ExpertĒ feature on RotoWire, I frequently get questions from people stating some sort of variation of ďmy team is tanking, this is my roster, should I start preparing for fantasy football?Ē Well, I could be asking myself the same question, as my team in my home league currently resides in dead last more than two months into the season. Iíve pretty much been there from the beginning, and Iím 61.5 points out of first place. Right now, the baseball season is approximately 38 percent finished, so the ďitís still earlyĒ excuse no longer flies.

No one wants to hear about my specific fantasy team, but in this case, I want to use my example to highlight a broader point, which is not to throw in the towel, no matter how bleak your current situation looks. I currently have a 1 in both ERA and WHIP. Here is some of my staff: Matt Cain, Chris Young, Brett Myers, Ted Lilly, Derek Lowe, Johnny Cueto, Pedro Martinez, Max Scherzer, Joe Saunders and Jonathan Sanchez. Now, itís possible that group finishes with a 15 (its current total) in a standard 5X5 league, but Iíd say the odds are greater they triple that score by seasonís end than staying put.

Now, this doesnít apply to keeper-leagues the same way; I recently lost David Ortiz, John Smoltz and Nick Johnson to injury in an 18-team keeper format, and Iíll now be looking toward next year (you hear me Staff League 1?). Again, my main point was bigger than my specific team, and maybe Iím overly optimistic in that regard, but really, itís crazy to give up right now. Last year when June began, Ryan Braun was hitting .222/.214/.370 with one homer; he was a consensus top-15 pick in 2008. In Yahoo standard scoring leagues, Ryan Ludwick and Xavier Nady are currently top-25 ranked hitters. Shaun Marcum, Joe Saunders, Ryan Dempster and Justin Duchscherer are top-25 pitchers, all trailing No. 1 ranked Edinson Volquez.

If you are behind the eight ball and down in the standings, that just means you need to be extra diligent with pickups, lineup decisions and be sure not to make panic trades. And if you have trouble with this in your league by other members Ė that is, owners who completely neglect their team because of slow starts - one method of correcting this other than kicking them out is to deploy a tiered payout system. Increase your league entry fee, but make the payouts go to 80 percent of the league, giving incentive to those fighting for 5th-10th place. But I for one am not playing for 5th place. Donít give up, donít ever give up.


Comments....

This is an excellent article. I have never written you with such a question. But, my team has been terrible. I did panic. Instead of throwing in the towel, I joined RW. I think the most difficult issue with poor performance during the first half of the season is discening the difference between a slumping team and knowing when one needs to make fundamental changes. But, little things like setting the line-up every day and sitting slumping players, or sitting players that have difficult matchups can make a small difference. Then, get on the waiver wire and get rid of the truly dead weight. Also, try to trade based on needs and buy low. I always think my fteam has one major problem. In this sense, fsports is a metaphor for life. One last thing ... My team is horrible. Here is my roster. What should I do? Just kidding.
DDD, great, great post. Even though I have never written such a question, many of us feel that way. Too frequently. For me, it was last week.
Posted by jhermann at 6/9/2008 4:35:00 AM
 
Insert snarky Nick Johnson comment here.
Posted by spianow at 6/9/2008 6:42:00 AM
 
jhermann - Cool, glad you liked it.

pianow - I was sure I was getting 162 games from Nick The Stick this year.
Posted by Dalton Del Don at 6/9/2008 7:23:00 AM
 
3D this leads to another blog...which players are to target now or at the All-Star break that could turn it around. I'll give an example. In a regular 12 mixed league, I took a gamble on Jose Guillen 3 weeks ago, banking on him not finishing the year hitting .208. It's been briefly mentioned second half candidates-Teixera, Cano (I still gotta believe Penny is going to turn it around at some point). Any thoughts?
Posted by kevinccp at 6/9/2008 7:37:00 AM
 
Ya I could probably make an article out of that. Problem with Penny is that he's typically horrible after the All-Star break, maybe he'll pull a Costanza and do the opposite this season.
Posted by Dalton Del Don at 6/9/2008 10:11:00 AM
 
I would try to buy low on Chipper Jones....errr wait a sec.

I would actually sell him if I could at this point though. I'm gonna do an NL-only list for this idea.

Let's do this CNBC-style:

STRONG BUY:

Aaron Harang
Carlos Lee
Jonathan Broxton (he's had two disaster innings inflating the stats)
Carlos Beltran
Jose Reyes
Tim Lincecum (mulch!)

BUY:

Lastings Milledge
Manny Parra
Troy Tulowitzki
Chris Carpenter
Mike Gonzalez
Chris Iannetta

SELL:

Chipper Jones
Jose Valverde
Jorge Cantu
Ryan Ludwick
Brian Fuentes
Edinson Volquez (it just can't last....)
Carlos Zambrano

STRONG SELL:

Dan Uggla

SELL BY GOD SELL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:

Ryan Dempster

CRY IF ON YOUR TEAM CUZ NO ONE WILL BUY:

Ian Snell

Posted by billgoofnow at 6/9/2008 12:41:00 PM
 
bill: I like this last post. I couldn't agree more with Parra. But, assuming the knee is strong, I would keep Valverde.
Posted by jhermann at 6/9/2008 12:54:00 PM
 
I would keep zambrano.
Posted by joey'scookies at 6/9/2008 8:30:00 PM
 
I'm riding out Volquez to see where this all goes. I doubt you can find someone in your league to pay full value considering his lack of pre-2008 big league success, so may as well see it through. Now if someone comes along offering then yeah, I'll get more interested.
Posted by vtadave at 6/9/2008 10:39:00 PM
 
Good stuff.
Posted by Dalton Del Don at 6/9/2008 11:06:00 PM
 
Anyone else dead last in HR and RBI with a lineup of Bengie Molina (my rbi leader), Prince Fielder, Robinson Cano, Miguel Cabrera, Stephen Drew, Matt Holliday, Corey Hart, Carl Crawford, Jay Bruce and Delmon Young? Boy was I excited going into the season! I have the best 8th place team on the planet. I just have to keep telling myself it's gonna turn around. Living in the Detroit area I've had a double dose of disappointment, thanks to my Tigers.
Posted by lvtdude at 6/10/2008 3:34:00 PM
 
That's a perfect example of a team that should not be giving up.
Posted by Dalton Del Don at 6/10/2008 4:34:00 PM
 

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