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Drafting Bonds
Posted by Jeff Erickson at 3/8/2006 11:09:00 AM
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Set aside the historical implications of the latest Bonds bombshell. Where do you draft him this year? How much do you pay for him in an auction? Try to leave personal feelings about him out of this. What I'm looking for is an analytical look at how much value he'll provide. I think I'd pay no more than $10-12 for him in an auction (mixed league), maybe less now. Not only is the knee an issue, but I think the possibility of him retiring early has been greatly increased.


Maybe the shock hasn't worn off yet, but my guess is he will never play another major league game. I know he's going to treat it like it's no big deal, but the pressure will get to be too much to him, the Giants, and Bud Selig. I just think we're probably a week or two away from legendary Bonds press conference where he makes an excuse about his knee and continuously doesn't respond to questions about steroids.

On the other hand, there is a part of Bonds, that would like to say "test me every day this year and I will show you what I'm still capable of". That would be cool to see.

To answer your question though, if I were drafting today, I wouldn't pay too much for him. Even $10 seems high for someone with his question marks right now. If someone else wanted to take a chance, I'd let him. I doubt even someone who hit the Bonds jackpot will get more than 200 AB out of him this year.
Posted by kennruby at 3/8/2006 1:59:00 PM
Totally agree, Kenn - Bonds has a lot stacked against him, not just the scrutiny and the fact that he might have to go off the drug that carried him a long way, but also he's in his 40s and coming back from an injury. He's also not well liked to begin with. If he plays, it will be under some very tough conditions - no one wants Bonds to break Aaron or even Ruth's marks.
Posted by cliss at 3/8/2006 4:22:00 PM
Depends on the depth of the league, inflation, etc. Emil Brown went for $12, Jeremy Reed for $11, and Mark Kotsay for $9 in the RotoWire Staff Keeper League. I'd say the risk on Bonds, who don't forget had to endure the same pressure in the 2004 preseason when the BALCO testimony leaked, is well worth the price of those guys.
Posted by bscwik at 3/12/2006 11:40:00 AM

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