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Can you platoon a "Star"...in a fantasy context?
Posted by Bret Cohen at 4/23/2006 1:41:00 PM
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Piggybacking on Herb Ilk's post about platooning a "star" player in real life, can you afford to sit a "star" player in fantasy matchups in leagues with daily substitutions? A recent situation occurred where I was struggling to find starting time in my crowded outfield for a couple of guys who were having a poor start yet had murdered the scheduled pitcher in the past (thanks Shawn Green). When trying to figure out who to sit, I noticed Jason Bay -- my first round pick in this VORP league which rewards individual accomplishments (no points for runs or RBI, but lots for walks and total bases) -- was 1-for-17 lifetime against Jeff Suppan. I did a double-take and checked it again. It seemed like the perfect opportunity to perhaps "time the market" and get my slumping player in the lineup at a time he'd be heating up. In addition, Bay had been semi-slumping the previous week, so it seemed like a good opportunity to "time the market" in his case as well and give him a day off.

Well, though Green goes 2-for-4 with two singles and a caught stealing to earn me 1.9 points, I sit out Bay for the first time this season and he goes 2-for-2 with a home run, stolen base, and three walks for a total of 13.04 points, about 1/4 of his season total at the time. After beating myself up a bit, I started to wonder if it was acceptable to sit out a stud batter due to a poor historical matchup against the opposing pitcher. Based on my experience in this situation, I'd proffer that it is acceptable if the pitcher has also been a stud in the past -- for example, I might sit Scott Rolen against Pedro Martinez, against whom he has gone 1-for-11 in his career -- but not against a schlub like Jeff Suppan, at least not again.


Comments....

My response might seem simplistic, but 17 at-bats is not even close to a reliable sample size, *especially* when it comes to benching someone like Bay.
Posted by Erickson at 4/23/2006 3:36:00 PM
 
What's the required sample size? Is it devoid of any other factors? Brian Giles is 2-for-27 lifetime against Randy Johnson; would you start on a day he's facing the Unit instead of any hot batter, like Ty Wigginton or Craig Wilson?
Posted by bscwik at 4/24/2006 3:05:00 PM
 

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