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J.D. Drew's Signing
Posted by Jeff Erickson at 12/5/2006 10:46:00 PM
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There's a lot of talk on our internal message board expressing disapproval of the Red Sox's deal with J.D. Drew, especially in comparison to the cheaper deal Johnny Damon signed last year. Without delving into the differences in the market between last year and this year (a pretty strong point in its own right), I think this signing is defensible, even in comparison to Damon's deal.

I think he was the best remaining player on the market, and when healthy, arguably more valuable than Carlos Lee. Yes, health is the rub, but he regularly posts an on-base percentage around .400, and he plays excellent defense. Yes, the power dropped off this year, in part due to his wrist injury, but even still, he had essentially the same OPS as Lee, in a far worse ballpark. He's also just six months older than Lee. I'll be quick to acknowledge that Damon had a great year and ultimately looks to be a good signing, but even now he's two years older than Drew. I think there's a pretty good chance that Drew outproduces Damon in years 2007-2009.


Drew has missed roughly 28 percent of his games throughout his young career to a host of injuries. Throw away the 90 games missed in ’05 and we’re still around 23 percent meaning he’s good for 75-plus percent unless seriously injured. Does that bode well for a player heading into his aging years? In eight years he’s hit .300 twice, 100 RBI once, and had one 30-home run year. Unlike the compared, Carlos Lee, who’s done each three times in the same time span. The .900 OPS line is a big pile of crap in real life if it isn’t achieved in 140-plus games, no? Do you buy a used vehicle at slightly below market value when you’re aware it was a factory lemon; in the shop three months every year?
But if Drew were healthy for a full season…. Well, he never is, and are the Sox now stuck with Manny Ramirez and his 20-per because of that fact? How are you projecting him this year Jeff? Is 150 games on your to-do list?

Posted by arwen at 12/6/2006 5:02:00 AM
And how does this make them look for the Wily Mo Pena/Bronson Arroyo deal? Also, I know fantasy baseball really doesn't go into this, but I've attempted to own Drew the past few years and it's been a complete waste of my time. Drew is a DNP if he breaks a nail or jams his finger in a door hinge. At least you know what you're getting in Carlos Lee and he's pretty reliable health wise. He's a defensive lul, but it's not like he has to cover alot of ground in Houston playing left field.
Posted by schwang2u at 12/6/2006 7:53:00 AM

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