RotoWire Partners
RotoWire Blogs
All Sports
Recent Comments
Featured Bloggers
Chris Liss
Jeff Erickson
Dalton Del Don
Andre' Snellings
Erik Siegrist
Jason Thornbury
Peter Schoenke
About RSS
More info
Baseball Commissioner
Fantasy Football News
Fantasy Football Draft Kit
Fantasy Football Magazine
Football Draft Software
Fantasy Baseball News
Draft Kit
Draft Software
Email Reports
Email Preferences Fantasy Baseball Blog
Search All of Blogs:

BlogsAll Sports   Baseball   Football   Basketball   Hockey   Golf  

Baseball Market Predicting
Posted by Bret Cohen at 12/6/2006 3:42:00 PM
View more posts by this author


A recent discussion went something like this:

"J.D. Drew for 5 years at $70 mil OR Damon for 4 at $52 mil."

"It's apples and oranges with Damon and Drew, though. Last year was last year. Hindsight, 20-20. The market changed. That's how these things work. OBVIOUSLY the Damon deal is better, now. No one questions that. But the comparison isn't fair because the context is different."

How is the context different? Aren't these owners supposed to be savvy businessmen who have accumulated enormous wealth and are managing a multi-million dollar company? Shouldn't there be some sort of analyst or economist that can forecast the financial landscape of the league the next few years? At least, in the context of Damon, shouldn't there be an ability to forecast the financial landscape of the free agent market for the very next season, given the upcoming free agent class, the general financial state of the league, expiring contracts, etc.? I'm not saying that teams aren't doing this, but I'm not so quick to excuse Boston for letting Damon walk and paying Drew that much -- assuming, arguendo, that Damon is in fact the better value -- if their sole excuse after the fact is that the market is more favorable toward players the next season? I'm not saying that happened either, but I don't underestimating the market should be a valid excuse.


Umm, Bret... remember that CBA expension? This year's market is purely a product of guaranteed labor peace. Last year there was a chance that the owners' cash cow might dry up, or at least be upset, somewhere on the horizon. That threat is now removed, and the owners have no reason to prepare for a rainy day.
Posted by ESiegrist at 12/7/2006 1:36:00 AM
The answer to your forecasting question is, yes, they do predict and portfolio manage the assets (and it's not that tough to do, just difficult to get it right given the human variables, the lack of collusion between owners, and the hostile environment between labor, management, and reps) and are accountable in as much as employment in the front offices is as stable as the market they play in. Drew/Damon as investment vehicles have term lengths that we’ve barely scratched the surface on and investors are never accountable to analysts. Quon the analyst thinks the Drew deal a bad one based on historical data of performance, but investors are judged on results, not on some morons’ prognostication.

The difference between the Red Sox and the small to medium markets is the ability to take the Drew risk, something I personally thought should have contained a large discount factor, but something I think they also did with Beckett. Speaking of Beckett – if you want to play accountability lets talk history, the Red Sox and their shortstop position; Cabrera to Renteria, to Gonzalez (who they paid for defense and got their money’s worth but it wasn’t enough apparently), now to Lugo for $36 mil for more offense while adding Drew for Nixon as well. Didn’t they used to have a homegrown uber-prospect that was blocked by Nomar awhile back? How much does Hanley make and how many years until he hits $9 mil per season? Of course, Beckett could rebound and then his $10 mil salary looks good in the current market. It could happen....
I go away now.
Posted by arwen at 12/7/2006 2:50:00 AM
It seems the Yankees are now getting company in the "unlimited payroll" category. $51.1 million just to negotiate a contract with a starting pitcher. $106 million on Lugo and Drew. Probably keeping Manny and his $20 million salary. Didn't Papi get a big extension recently?

At least the Red Sox still have a little young talent - Papelbon, Lester, Ellsbury, etc., but still...
Posted by vtadave at 12/7/2006 8:31:00 AM
From a recent Jeff Passan article...

'"I sit down at the end of the year when we go through the free-agent list," Brewers' GM Doug Melvin said. "We do our predictions on what a guy is worth. We're not close."

His prediction for Carlos Lee, the slugger Milwaukee traded midseason for fear it couldn't re-sign him: $65 million.

The actual contract: six years, $100 million with the Houston Astros.'

Maybe they do need to hire financial analysts. But sometimes the small market teams have to cut costs wherever they can...
Posted by bscwik at 12/7/2006 4:37:00 PM

You must be logged in to post a comment. Click here to log in or register with