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The O-Zone: Our final bust nominee
Posted by Joe Oberkrieser at 3/7/2007 2:28:00 PM
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Your turn, Bronson Arroyo.

After Arroyo got traded to the Reds, I wrote something for RotoWire detailing how horrible he was going to be. I think I predicted a 5.50 ERA or something along those lines.

Oops. My bad.

Arroyo was terrific. His strikeout rate rebounded, and he finished the year with a 14-11 record and 3.29 ERA.

This year, though, we’re going to see some regression. Not “5.50 ERA” regression, but enough to make Arroyo something of a bust.

Four concerns:

1. Arroyo is still a fly-ball pitcher (0.97 G/F) in a homer-happy ballpark. Heck, as great as he was last year, he still surrendered 31 home runs. Can he sustain an ERA in the low threes if he’s giving up so many dingers?

2. Workload: Arroyo pitched 240 2/3 innings last year. Highest total in the big leagues. This is always dangerous.

3. Arroyo was a bit lucky last year. As mentioned in RotoWire’s Arroyo outlook, his batting average allowed on balls in play was just .262. If Arroyo’s good fortune takes a turn for the worse, that average will climb -- as will his ERA.

4. Arroyo faded a bit in the second half. He did have a nice September, but his ERA in July (5.46) and August (4.78) should give us pause. Great as last year was, Arroyo wasn’t a start-to-finish dominator.

All that being said, I’m not predicting doom and gloom for Arroyo. But if you pay for last year’s stats, you are going to be sorry. He’ll be good, but not THAT good.


"But if you pay for last year’s stats, you are going to be sorry." ... In theory, you might as well apply that to any "surprise" of 2006. The trick is figuring out what to do when it's a breakthrough from a player you liked all along.

Posted by spianow at 3/9/2007 9:10:00 AM

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