Brett Favre

After offseason surgery to repair his torn biceps, Favre has decided to come back yet again and start for the Vikings. Favre led the NFL with 22 interceptions last season and had a 4:10 TD:INT ratio in his last six games. OK, he was hurt with a torn bicep. But 40-year-old guys are going to get hurt. Averaging 6.7 yards despite a 65.7 completion percentage is evidence of a lethal case of the dinks and dunks. Favre was ahead of only Ryan Fitzpatrick in yards per completion (10.1). Favre averaged a terrible 6.67 YPA on first-down throws, 32nd among QBs with more than 50 attempts. And he threw eight picks on these attempts, by far the worst in the league (no one else had more than six). Throwing a pick on first down is inexcusable because there's no need to force anything then no matter what the score. Favre could surprise with another resurgence. We didn't see 2007 coming, either. But you can't pay for that possibility because the odds against it happening are great.

The puzzle pieces are in place for Favre in New York, but how quickly can he learn a new offense and establish timing with his teammates? Favre looks like a risky fantasy starter or an intriguing fantasy backup entering the season; somewhere in the 10-13 range on a cheat sheet. He'll go too early in many drafts, as Favre sympathizers abound. We'd like to see some evidence before we invest.

He’s an ugly player now. The accuracy is going. His passing yardage is still OK, but a very high percentage of yards are courtesy of his receivers. The downfield passing has been cut because he’s too mistake prone and distracted to sit tight and make good decisions in the heat of battle. His YPA is an unacceptable 6.3, and he generates first downs on less than 30 percent of total passing attempts, which puts him down there with the Andrew Walters, Charlie Fryes and Joey Harringtons. In other words, all the guys you never want to own. He’s a name, though. And he’s not a bad guy to grab late if you get one of the QB studs because you can hope for a big game that gets the propaganda machine cranking and allows you to extract some value from the most nostalgic owner in your league.

If you want to write off last year and hang your hat on his 78 QB rating close/late in 2004, go ahead. But everyone loses it completely at some point. Why can’t the time be now for Favre? His 83 QB rating on 99 11-to-20 yard throws argues against him being completely shot. And his 12-percent rate of poor throws is actually quite good. But consider that Favre, the master of the fantastic finish, has only two fourth quarter TD passes with the game on the line since 2003. And then look at that WR corps minus Javon Walker. Is Donald Driver a true No. 1 receiver? Is there a single impact player on the Green Bay offense now that Ahman Green appears to be shot, too? The play calling tendencies were good for Favre last year, but there’s a new head coach now, former Niners offensive coordinator Mike McCarthy. Last year, McCarthy was quite conservative calling plays, but that was likely because of the Niners unbelievably poor QB play. McCarthy was QB coach for the Packers in 1999 and then served as offensive coordinator for the Saints. Aaron Brooks was a serviceable fantasy football QB under McCarthy before collapsing last year without him, and Favre is much more reliable in the twilight of his career than Brooks will ever be. Still, he's better suited as a second fantasy quarterback at this point.

Football’s Cal Ripken will be 36 in October, but that’s not that old for a quarterback. Rich Gannon won an MVP at that age a few years ago, and Favre himself hasn’t shown major signs of slowing down. Over his last four seasons, his touchdown totals are 32, 27, 32 and 30, and he threw for 4,088 yards last year. Another positive trend (from a fantasy perspective) is as bad as the Packers defense was last season – 23rd in points allowed, 25th in yardage allowed – Green Bay did little to address that area via free agency or in the draft. In fact, the Packers lost one of their best defensive players, Darren Sharper, to the Vikings. As a result, Favre’s going to be slinging the ball downfield early and often, and Green Bay should be involved in more than its fair share of shootouts. Two things to be wary of, however, are the loss of starting guards Marco Rivera and Mike Wahle, and Javon Walker’s threatened holdout. Walker missed this spring’s mandatory minicamps, and if the situation isn’t resolved, Favre could go into the season without his primary big-play receiver. At this point, however, the tone between the two parties isn’t particularly acrimonious, so we expect Walker back at some point during training camp.

Favre's solid 7.14 yards per attempt supports his lofty TD total, but Favre didn't register 200 yards passing in half of his games last year. Favre's TD productivity from inside the 10-yard-line is the real reason he led the NFL in touchdown passes. Ordinarily, we'd say 14 TD passes in 25 attempts from inside the 10 screams fluke. (Peyton Manning, for example, had 8 TDs in 38 attempts in this area of the field.) But Favre tossed 31 TD passes from inside the 10 the prior two years, so throwing for scores in the red zone appears to be a skill he owns. Favre has some receivers with upside in Robert Ferguson and Javon Walker, and his favorite target from 2002, Donald Driver, is still in the mix. The running threat of Ahman Green keeps defenses honest for him. Still, despite last year's fantasy productivity, Favre is clearly a player in decline. His 21 interceptions and poor decision-making in the playoff loss to Philadelphia offer ample evidence of this. (Favre also had a worse percentage of interceptions/attempts than all QBs except Kordell Stewart and Doug Johnson.) Expect similarly modest yardage totals and less TD passes in '04, though his ability to get easy scores near the goal line will likely keep Favre in the league's top five in that department.

The Packers still emphasize the pass near the goal line (Green Bay threw in the red zone more than any other playoff team last year), and Favre's 2002 passing stats were solid enough (3,658 passing yards, 27 touchdowns). On the down side, he's not a factor running the ball at all (just 129 rushing yards the last two years), and his supporting cast on offense is solid, but not exceptional, especially the WR group. Favre's slump at the end of 2002 is also worth noting – he was only 20th in fantasy QB points over the last seven weeks of the year, and he didn't play well in the playoff loss to Atlanta.