This article is part of our Beat the Cap series.
Beat the Cap: Finding Reliable Points
Winning 50/50 contests is the easiest way to build your bankroll in daily fantasy sports. Minimizing risk is a key component to winning the majority of those contests. To minimize risk you need to get production from mid-priced players.
Contests are often won and lost by a point or less. Therefore, finding players who can contribute fantasy stats without scoring a goal or chipping in an assist are a huge asset.
There will be nights when your 50/50 lineup goes off and you wished you had entered it in every GPP going. However, there will be many nights when your last player skating blocks a shot, or gets a primary assist to propel you into the money.
Players who contribute across categories and aren't dependant on goals and assists for fantasy points are ideal targets to provide secondary fantasy scoring when filling out your daily lineup.
You're not targeting Steven Stamkos for his 4.1 shots per game; however Tommy Wingels' 3.8 mark sticks out as a reason to consider him for your lineup. Your expectations should be different for every player, too.
Sticking with the examples, Stamkos needs at least a goal or two assists to reward on his price tag, whereas Wingels can essentially breakeven with five shots on net.
In 50/50 contests it doesn't matter where you rank, as long as it is in the top half. With mid-priced players rarely being a lock for goals and assists, targeting players who contribute in peripheral statistics provides a solid foundation.
When Wingels scores a goal, it can almost be considered a bonus. It doesn't matter where the points come from, it only matters how many you accumulate.
The Ebb
Percentages
If you spend nearly 20 percent of your salary cap on a player, they need to be capable of producing 20 percent of your fantasy points, or more. When you spend less than eight percent on a player, your expectations should be much lower.
Eight percent of FanDuel's $55,000 salary cap is $4,400, and it is a $4,000 chuck out of Draft Kings's $50,000 salary cap. Players in this range are potential contest winners in GPP formats, but in 50/50 contests they just need to produce a modest return on your investment.
Stats
The goal is still to target players in favorable matchups who you project to score goals and get assists. However, those fantasy points for goals and assists add up faster with a minor penalty and three shots on goal.
Pavel Datsyuk is an excellent example of a player whose fantasy points are largely dependant on goals and assists. He has a goal, two assists and just three shots through his first three games. Datsyuk doesn't have a penalty minute or blocked shot yet, either. It is a small sample size, but the numbers stand true historically, too.
It doesn't make Datsyuk an unwise fantasy play; it just makes him a little more risky. If he doesn't score, you could be left with close to zero, or worse. Datsyuk is above the mid-priced tier, too, which illustrates even star players are prone to dud games.
Your lineup fillers or eight-percent players are even more likely than Datsyuk to get held off the score sheet. Ensure your 50/50 lineup isn't filled with bagels in the furthest right-hand column by targeting players who don't rely solely on goals and assists for their fantasy points.
Endgame
You should be targeting a few mid-tier players with upside for points every night in 50/50 contests. In the endgame of lineup assembly there are always a couple players to fill out your final roster slot. This is where you want to limit risk and target a reliable player.
Stamkos and Datsyuk are on your roster because you expect them to have a multi-point game. Put your high-priced targets in your lineup first and assemble around them. When filling your last roster slot, you're usually pinched against the cap, so you're looking for your best option in that price range.
In a GPP contest, you're targeting the player with the most upside, nothing else. In 50/50 contests, though, you should have a more balanced thought process. Upside is great, but reliable points need to be part of the equation, too.
Moderation
To be clear, you need scorers. The ideas presented above are meant for rounding out your roster, not building around them. They are also specifically for lower- to mid-priced players.
Keep the goal in mind. You have to beat more than half your opponents, setting the daily fantasy hockey record for most points isn't required. Keep the percentages in mind to beat the cap, and you'll get the statistics to beat your opponents more times than not.
The Flow
There is a large enough sample size to identify players who post consistent points on a nightly basis. Shots and penalty minutes are sneaky bonuses that can boost your lineups final point total.
Here are nine mid-priced targets that fit the bill:
Tyler Johnson, C, Tampa Bay: Johnson is flourishing in a secondary scoring role for the Bolts. While he doesn't take penalties, he has 20 shots in his last six games, and his ice time is up.
Nick Bjugstad, C, Florida: Averaging three shots a game, and 11 in his past two, the puck luck will catch up to Bjugstad eventually. His eight penalty minutes parlay with the shots into a nice floor when he finally posts his first multi-point game of the season.
Brad Marchand, LW, Boston: Arguably the prototype, Marchand is prone to minor penalty and usually puts a few shots on net a game. There's a boost this season, too, with the addition of power-play time.
Chris Kreider, LW, New York: It has been a nice offensive start to the season, but the 38 penalty minutes -- albeit 17 and 15 of them came in two games -- and 20 shots establish a nice floor for any points to add to.
Tommy Wingels, RW, San Jose: Averaging 3.8 shots per game, it is no wonder Wingels is being auditioned on every Sharks' line. In favorable matchups he is a safe play and provides subtle cap relief.
Lee Stempniak, RW, New York: The penalty minutes are less likely, but as long as Stempinak is getting time with the man advantage, the shots totals are. Stempinak hasn't seen ideal minutes at even strength, though.
Dougie Hamilton, D, Boston: The secret is out with Hamilton, especially after his huge game Saturday. However, he was putting a lot of shots on net before Zdeno Chara's injury, so he was already trending in the right direction.
Ryan Ellis, D, Nashville: In his last three games, Ellis has nine shots, a goal, three assists and two penalty minutes. Oddly, none of the points came with the man advantage, and power-play production is his biggest asset.
Kevin Bieksa, D, Vancouver: He has put at least two pucks on net in every game this season. While likely past his offensive prime, Bieksa still boasts a nice floor with eight penalty minutes and 23 shots on goal through eight games.
If you have additional questions or would like to see anything specifically covered in Beat the Cap contact me in the comments below or via Twitter @naparker77.
