The RotoWire 200: 2016 Overall Rankings

This is our top 200 for 12-team, mixed-league drafts. Here's a few guidelines on how this list is compiled:

- I'm assuming it's a standard 5x5 league.

- Though it doesn't strictly hew to our projected auction values, it's pretty close. Occasionally draft dynamics will push a player up or down beyond what his stats are worth. To that end, these players are listed in order of where I think they should rank, without regard to ADP. To the extent that there are some early outliers, I've tried to note them in the comments. I do operate under the assumption of a 68-32 hitter-pitcher split in valuing the players.

- A player needs to have played at least 20 games at the position last year to qualify there this year, or if he was a minor leaguer it would be at the position where he played the most last year.

- 200 isn't really that deep. We'll come out with a top 350 later on, but this version is going into the magazine, where 200 is a tidy number. In a similar vein, the format necessarily requires shorter comments. For more insight, read the player's outlooks, which are now up on the site.

1. Mike Trout (LAA – OF) Trout is still at the top of my list, but the gap has narrowed once again.
2. Paul Goldschmidt (AZ – 1B) Goldschmidt gets the nod ahead of Harper because of his stolen bases.
3. Bryce Harper (WAS – OF) Hopefully Harper vs. Trout will be a great debate for a decade.
4. Clayton Kershaw (LAD – SP) What more do you need to see to take Kershaw in the first round?
5. Manny Machado (BAL – 3B) Machado improved uniformly in 2015 and still might have another leap.
6. Nolan Arenado (COL – 3B) Arenado vs. Machado is another fantastic debate.
7. Josh Donaldson (TOR – 3B) The reigning AL MVP scored a whopping 122 runs in 2015.
8. Carlos Correa (HOU – SS) Correa is a rare exception to my disinclination to use positional scarcity.
9. Giancarlo Stanton (MIA – OF) One of these years Stanton is going to hit 50 homers in 145 games.
10. Andrew McCutchen (PIT – OF) McCutchen fell a little lower because of his decline in stolen bases.
11. Anthony Rizzo (CHC – 1B) Rizzo has been hit by 45 pitches over the last two seasons.
12. A.J. Pollock (AZ – OF) Pollock could trade some speed for power this season.
13. Miguel Cabrera (DET – 1B) Still the best high-average power option in the game, but health is a worry.
14. Kris Bryant (CHC – 3B) Bryant will probably shatter the 30-homer and 200-K barriers this year.
15. Max Scherzer (WAS – SP) Scherzer should get the wins that were expected in 2015 this year.
16. Jose Altuve (HOU – 2B) Altuve traded some speed for power last year – is that sustainable?
17. Jake Arrieta (CHC – SP) My only concern is the heavy workload and velocity loss in the playoffs.
18. Jose Bautista (TOR – OF) The only downside to taking Bautista here is the lower batting average.
19. Chris Davis (FA – 1B/OF) Twenty nine of Davis' 47 homers came in Baltimore last year.
20. Edwin Encarnacion (TOR – 1B) Encarnacion had hernia surgery in October, should be ready by March.
21. Starling Marte (PIT – OF) Marte is starting to add more power as he matures physically.
22. Buster Posey (SF – C) Higher than I normally have him, due the dearth of quality catchers.
23. Jose Abreu (CWS – 1B) This is probably as good as it gets, though that's not bad.
24. Dee Gordon (MIA – 2B) Won't hit .333 again, but doesn't need to do so to earn this spot.
25. Mookie Betts (BOS – OF) With a full season batting leadoff, 100 runs should be a cinch for Betts.
26. George Springer (HOU – OF) Is Springer injury-prone or just unlucky? I vote the latter.
27. Ryan Braun (MIL – OF) Watch for reports on Braun's back as you approach Draft Day.
28. J.D. Martinez (DET – OF) Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.
29. David Price (BOS – SP) Price has a 1.95 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in 74 innings at Fenway Park.
30. Madison Bumgarner (SF – SP) Bumgarner defied those that expected a drop following 2014 workload.
31. Chris Sale (CWS – SP) Sale's shaky September might create a buying opportunity.
32. Jose Fernandez (MIA – SP) Great in his return, despite a .355 BABIP against.
33. Zack Greinke (AZ – SP) Greinke shocked many by signing with Arizona, but $206 million speaks loudly.
34. Charlie Blackmon (COL – OF) Blackmon has a huge home/road split, but he's not going anywhere.
35. Jacob deGrom (NYM – SP) DeGrom walked five fewer batters in Year 2 despite throwing 51 more innings.
36. Nelson Cruz (SEA – OF) I was flat-out wrong about Cruz in 2015, both with performance and health.
37. Gerrit Cole (PIT – SP) Cole sometimes gets overlooked among the elite, but he belongs.
38. Joey Votto (CIN – 1B) It's possible that Votto could walk 150 times this year if he stays healthy.
39. Robinson Cano (SEA – 2B) Cano played through a thumb injury and sports hernia in 2015.
40. Yoenis Cespedes (FA – OF) Is Cespedes' best season repeatable, or a walk-year fluke?
41. Jason Kipnis (CLE – 2B) Kipnis hit for a great average, but where did the power go?
42. Carlos Gonzalez (COL – OF) CarGo played in a career-high 153 games, but had just two steals.
43. Matt Harvey (NYM – SP) The kid gloves could come off this year – as a result, this ranking might be low.
44. Stephen Strasburg (WAS – SP) Has a player ever been hated so much for non-scandalous reasons?
45. Todd Frazier (CWS – 3B) Leaving Cincy will hurt, but at least Frazier landed in another good park.
46. Kyle Schwarber (CHC – C/OF) This might be Schwarber's last year behind the plate.
47. Corey Kluber (CLE – SP) Kluber regressed less than his win-loss record indicated.
48. Brian Dozier (MIN – 2B) Second half collapses unfortunately have been a way of life for Dozier.
49. Xander Bogaerts (BOS – SS) Bogaerts has a lot of ADP helium – this might not get him.
50. Adrian Gonzalez (LAD – 1B) Gonzalez is one of the better "low-ceiling, high-floor" players.
51. Justin Upton (FA – OF) Upton hit better at Petco than on the road last year.
52. Carlos Gomez (HOU – OF) Gomez is an excellent buy-low candidate after missing 47 games last year.
53. Yasiel Puig (LAD – OF) Speaking of buying low – former Puig owners will not be rational about him.
54. Dallas Keuchel (HOU –SP) Keuchel's strikeout rate spiked in his breakout 2015 season.
55. Troy Tulowitzki (TOR – SS) Tulowitzki was already slumping before cracking his shoulder blade.
56. Lorenzo Cain (KC – OF) Cain's breakout seems real – he improved his contact rate by five percent.
57. Felix Hernandez (SEA – SP) King Felix was reduced to jester status by the Red Sox and Astros in 2015.
58. Sonny Gray (OAK – SP) One reason to be wary – Gray had a 6.84 ERA in his last 30 days.
59. Wade Davis (KC – RP) – Still amazing, but Davis' strikeout rate dropped a little last year.
60. Eric Hosmer (KC – 1B) – Does Hosmer have one more power spike in him or is this his peak?
61. Miguel Sano (MIN – DH) Sano played just nine games at third base last year – will he get 20 in 2016?
62. Freddie Freeman (ATL – 1B) Freeman will commiserate with Joey Votto regarding their lesser teammates.
63. Noah Syndergaard (NYM – SP) Averaged 97.1 mph on his fastball in his rookie season.
64. Chris Archer (TB – SP) Archer struggled in September against an AL East slate.
65. Albert Pujols (LAA – 1B) Pujols could miss the start of the season following November foot surgery.
66. Johnny Cueto (SF – SP) Cueto did well to land in San Francisco.
67. Cole Hamels (TEX – SP) Hamels' trade to the Rangers spurred an incredible playoff run.
68. Prince Fielder (TEX – DH) Fielder fell two games short of being 1B-eligible in traditional leagues.
69. Adam Jones (BAL – OF) Jones never fully recovered from back issues in 2015.
70. Jason Heyward (CHC – OF) Heyward is a classic 'better in real life than roto' player.
71. Kenley Jansen (LAD – RP) Will the Dodgers get some help to reach the ninth inning this year?
72. David Ortiz (BOS – DH) Possibly could play less in his final year.
73. Aroldis Chapman (NYY – RP) Chapman is the Yankees' likely closer after the trade.
74. Kyle Seager (SEA – 3B) Seager is likely to stick with the M's because of his contract.
75. David Robertson (CWS – RP) Robertson had some puzzling stretches but still had his best K/BB season.
76. Craig Kimbrel (BOS – RP) The move to the AL might hurt Kimbrel a little bit.
77. Carlos Carrasco (CLE – SP) Are Carrasco's home struggles in 2015 fact or fluke?
78. Matt Carpenter (STL – 3B) Carpenter was a late-blooming prospect with late-blooming power.
79. Mark Melancon (PIT – RP) Melancon regained some of his velocity after a troubling April.
80. Danny Salazar (CLE – SP) Salazar is finally in the Indians' rotation to stay.
81. Ian Kinsler (DET – 2B) Kinsler had some erosion of skills in 2015 – be wary of paying full price.
82. Corey Dickerson (COL – OF) Dickerson's plantar fasciitis could remain an issue this year.
83. Francisco Lindor (CLE – SS) Lindor's bat caught up with his glove at the big league level.
84. Anthony Rendon (WAS – 2B/3B) Rendon is expected to play full-time at third base this year.
85. Adrian Beltre (TEX – 3B) Beltre played through a torn thumb ligament over the second half of 2015.
86. Hunter Pence (SF – OF) A broken forearm and an oblique strain ruined Pence's 2015 season.
87. Maikel Franco (PHI – 3B) Franco managed the strike zone very well in his rookie season.
88. Jorge Soler (CHC – OF) There's a lot of pressure on Soler to produce right away this season.
89. Shin-Soo Choo (TEX – OF) Great second half, but the steals could be gone forever.
90. Corey Seager (LAD – SS) Seager's ADP is prohibitively priced for my liking.
91. Kole Calhoun (LAA – OF) Calhoun really benefits from hitting directly in front of Mike Trout.
92. Michael Wacha (STL – SP) Wacha had a 7.88 ERA in September, perhaps lowering his draft price.
93. Brett Gardner (NYY – OF) Gardner has settled in as a 20-SB player, rather than one who could steal 40.
94. DJ LeMahieu (COL – 2B) LeMahieu started batting higher in the order after the Tulo trade.
95. Kolten Wong (STL – 2B) Once again, where he hits in the order will determine his value.
96. Hanley Ramirez (BOS – OF) The Red Sox plan to play Ramirez at first base this season.
97. Gregory Polanco (PIT – OF) Progress has been slow, but the power is going to come.
98. Billy Hamilton (CIN – OF) Got better on the basepaths but worse at the plate last year.
99. Evan Longoria (TB – 3B) Longo started to hit with some power in September – I'm optimistic.
100. Jon Lester (CHC – SP) He might underperform his FIP regularly because he can't hold runners at all.
101. Brian McCann (NYY – C) McCann appears to be locked in as a low-average slugger.
102. Zach Britton (BAL – RP) Britton dramatically improved his strikeout rate in 2015.
103. Brandon Crawford (SF – SS) Crawford has improved his ISO five years in a row.
104. Matt Kemp (SD – OF) Kemp's season ended early due to a finger tendon injury.
105. Dustin Pedroia (BOS – 2B) The Red Sox plan to give Pedroia more planned off days.
106. Rougned Odor (TEX – 2B) If you believe in Odor's power potential, this could be too low for him.
107. Ben Zobrist (CHC – 2B/OF) Should significantly increase his runs scored with the Cubs.
108. Jacoby Ellsbury (NYY – OF) Ellsbury is a great buy-low candidate following his second half collapse.
109. Brandon Belt (SF – 1B) Belt has been cleared of all the post-concussion symptoms that ended his 2015.
110. Jonathan Lucroy (MIL – C) Lucroy will get ABs at first base, making him more valuable than most catchers.
111. Adam Eaton (CWS – OF) Eaton hit for more power than most expected and ran less.
112. Christian Yelich (MIA – OF) Yelich came on strong after returning, but still hasn't hit for power.
113. Mitch Moreland (TEX – 1B) If you squint you can see 30-homer potential from Moreland.
114. Mike Moustakas (KC – 3B) Moustakas and Hosmer clicked at the right time for the Royals.
115. Jeurys Familia (NYM – RP) Familia's three World Series blown saves are misleading – invest now.
116. Trevor Rosenthal (STL – RP) Rosenthal shaved his walk rate to a mere mediocre level in 2015.
117. Tyson Ross (SD – SP) Ross' control keeps him from enjoying a true breakout season.
118. Marcus Stroman (TOR – SP) Is helium transferrable from one year to the next?
119. Ian Desmond (FA – SS) Will he be asked to move to second base on his new team?
120. Jose Reyes (COL – SS) Awaiting discipline from MLB on a domestic violence accusation.
121. Kevin Pillar (TOR – OF) Started the year as a backup to Dalton Pompey, ended as a Gold Glover.
122. Ben Revere (WAS – OF) Revere should bat high in the order under manager Dusty Baker.
123. Billy Burns (OAK – OF) Burns has the potential to steal 40 bases in a full season.
124. Logan Forsythe (TB – 2B) Who else besides the Rays had the Forsythe to see this coming?
125. Daniel Murphy (WAS – 2B/3B) Murphy has become an extreme contact hitter, with a 92% contact rate.
126. David Peralta (AZ – OF) Watch for reports on Peralta's wrist this spring.
127. Josh Reddick (OAK – OF) Reddick's counting stats get hurt by his team context.
128. Alex Gordon (KC – OF) Gordon's on-base and defensive skills don't translate well in fantasy.
129. Cody Allen (CLE – RP) With a handful fewer walks Allen would graduate in to the elite closer tier.
130. Francisco Liriano (PIT – SP) For two years running Liriano has been significantly better on the road.
131. Michael Brantley (CLE – OF) Brantley is expected to miss the start of 2016 with a shoulder injury.
132. Steven Matz (NYM – SP) Matz is cheaper than his teammates but has a similar ceiling.
133. Huston Street (LAA – RP) Street has had more than 15 saves every year of his 11-season career.
134. Curtis Granderson (NYM – OF) Granderson had surgery to repair a torn thumb ligament in November.
135. Nick Castellanos (DET – 3B) In position to have a breakout season in a still-loaded Tigers lineup.
136. Garrett Richards (LAA – SP) Richards was striking out a batter per inning over the last two months.
137. Carlos Santana (CLE – 1B) Santana had a career-low .164 ISO last season.
138. Lucas Duda (NYM – 1B) Duda had a reverse platoon split in 2015, reversing his past history.
139. Russell Martin (TOR – C) Can Martin string together a high-average and 20-homer season at once?
140. Jordan Zimmermann (DET – SP) I'm wary of Zimmermann's move to the AL Central from the NL East.
141. Salvador Perez (KC – C) Perez has traded what little batting eye he has for power.
142. Travis d'Arnaud (NYM – C) The threat of Kevin Plawecki stealing at-bats is just a nominal one.
143. Elvis Andrus (TEX – SS) This is who Andrus is – there's no growth coming.
144. Jhonny Peralta (STL – SS) The Cardinals are hoping to squeeze another above-average year from him.
145. Shelby Miller (AZ – SP) So underrated by win-loss record, so overrated by the Diamondbacks.
146. Starlin Castro (NYY – SS/2B) Traded to the Yankees, where he should start at second base.
147. Addison Russell (CHC – SS/2B) Russell's BA remains a risk given his 69% contact rate last year.
148. Neil Walker (NYM – 2B) The Walker-Niese swap made perfect sense for the Mets.
149. Julio Teheran (ATL – SP) Finished strong, maintained velocity and strikeout rate – good buy low.
150. Dexter Fowler (FA – OF) Fowler has spent his entire career in good hitting ballparks.
151. Alex Rodriguez (NYY – DH) A-Rod could get more days off given Yanks' first base and outfield logjam.
152. James Shields (SD – SP) Shields single-handedly made Petco a positive HR park, giving up 19 there.
153. Lance McCullers (HOU – SP) McCullers' minor league numbers suggest a spike in strikeouts.
154. Chris Colabello (TOR – 1B/OF) Colabello raked against lefties and righties alike last year.
155. Masahiro Tanaka (NYY – SP) Tanaka is coming off October arthroscopic elbow surgery.
156. Michael Conforto (NYM – OF) The Mets gave Conforto only 14 at-bats against lefties last year.
157. Mark Teixeira (NYY – 1B) Can the Yankees find a way to play both Teixeira and Bird?
158. Adam Lind (SEA – 1B) The trade to Seattle definitely hurts Lind's value.
159. Matt Holliday (STL – OF) Could this be Holliday's last season, at least in the NL?
160. Jay Bruce (CIN – OF) Bruce is on the trade market, but surprisingly isn't that much better at home.
161. Joc Pederson (LAD – OF) Pederson failed to counter adjustments made by opposing pitchers.
162. Brandon Phillips (CIN – 2B) Phillips' stolen bases caught me by surprise, but they won't repeat.
163. Adam Wainwright (STL – SP) Betting against Wainwright hasn't usually worked, but here we are.
164. John Lackey (CHC – SP) Landing in Chicago was a good spot for Lackey.
165. Joe Panik (SF – 2B) Panik's season-ending back injury pushed him down 30-40 spots for 2016.
166. Roberto Osuna (TOR – RP) The only concern with Osuna is whether he stays as a closer.
167. A.J. Ramos (MIA – RP) Great strikeout rate, somewhat high walk rate.
168. Ken Giles (HOU – RP) The Astros paid a ton for him to be an elite closer.
169. Glen Perkins (MIN – RP) Back and neck injuries ruined the end of his 2015 season.
170. Yu Darvish (TEX – SP) Darvish had Tommy John surgery in mid-March and could miss the start of 2016.
171. Scott Kazmir (LAD – SP) Kazmir was a bit of a flop in Houston – landing in Los Angeles should work.
172. Kenta Maeda (LAD – SP) Maeda took very little guaranteed money in an 8-year deal with the Dodgers.
173. Randal Grichuk (STL – OF) Great power, but health and batting eye are concerns.
174. Howie Kendrick (FA – 2B) Kendrick performs consistently on the same rate – only health varies.
175. Cameron Maybin (DET – OF) Maybin is back where he began his career in Detroit.
176. Michael Pineda (NYY – SP) Pineda gave up 16 homers in Yankee Stadium, just five on the road.
177. Kendrys Morales (KC – DH) Everything broke perfectly for Morales in 2015 – expect some regression.
178. Evan Gattis (HOU – DH) Gattis won't hit 11 more triples the rest of his career.
179. Francisco Rodriguez (DET – RP) Traded to the Tigers in the offseason – still has a great changeup.
180. Carlos Beltran (NYY – OF) Beltran could give way to Aaron Hicks for defense late in games.
181. Stephen Vogt (OAK – C) Vogt's overall numbers were strong despite a terrible finish.
182. Trevor Plouffe (MIN – 3B) The Twins appear more likely to move Sano to the outfield than Plouffe.
183. Jung-Ho Kang (PIT – SS/3B) Kang might miss Opening Day due to his fractured tibia.
184. Dellin Betances (NYY – RP) Betances gets more strikeouts than many starters in half as many innings.
185. Devin Mesoraco (CIN – C) Mesoraco's rehab from hip surgery is on schedule.
186. David Wright (NYM – 3B) Wright ranks higher in leagues where replacement value is better.
187. Hisashi Iwakuma (SEA – SP) Failed a physical with the Dodgers and landed back with the Mariners.
188. Carlos Martinez (STL – SP) Martinez's season ended with a sore shoulder, making him tough to rank.
189. Pablo Sandoval (BOS – 3B) Sandoval developed a massive split, failing to hit lefties last year.
190. Collin McHugh (HOU – SP) McHugh's strikeout rate dropped from 25.4% to 19.9%.
191. Justin Turner (LAD – 3B) Turner had microfracture knee surgery in November.
192. Jake Odorizzi (TB – SP) Odorizzi has a bit of a reverse platoon split, striking out more lefties.
193. Justin Verlander (DET – SP) Verlander had some recovery, though not all the way back.
194. Santiago Casilla (SF – RP) Casilla is among the shakier known closers – Hunter Strickland looms.
195. Yan Gomes (CLE – C) Gomes never fully recovered from his April knee injury.
196. Melky Cabrera (CWS – OF) One of the many underachievers for the White Sox in 2015.
197. Byron Buxton (MIN – OF) This is a conservative rank – I could see a big breakout.
198. Taijuan Walker (SEA – SP) Walker had a 3.63 ERA and 0.98 WHIP over the last two months.
199. Raisel Iglesias (CIN – SP) Already a 'helium' guy and we haven't had our first draft that counts.
200. Drew Smyly (TB – SP) Exciting stuff, but a scary health history depresses Smyly's ranking.