Dallas Keuchel
33-Year-Old PitcherSP
Chicago White Sox
2021 Fantasy Outlook
Keuchel recorded a career-best 1.99 ERA in 11 starts last season, though he benefited from quite a bit of good fortune to get there. His .255 BABIP, 81.6% strand rate and 4.7% HR/FB rate rate are all textbook indicators that regression is coming. The lefty's 3.08 FIP was quite strong, though that statistic gives a pitcher full credit for his HR/FB rate; xFIP, on the other hand, regresses that number all the way to league average and gives him a middling 3.98 mark. Keuchel's 3.59 career ERA nearly matches his 3.54 xFIP, so there's reason to believe his ERA will regress up towards 4.00 next season. If he combines that with last season's 16.3% strikeout rate, his lowest since his rookie season back in 2012, he'll be a rather unexciting option. He should still be useful (though age-related decline can't be ruled out in his age-33 season), but don't draft him expecting anything close to a 1.99 ERA. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
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