Dallas Keuchel

Dallas Keuchel

36-Year-Old PitcherSP
 Free Agent  
2024 Fantasy Outlook
There was no outlook written for Dallas Keuchel in 2024. Check out the latest news below for more on his current fantasy value.
RANKS
$Signed a one-year contract with the Twins in June of 2023.
Ends season on shelf
PMinnesota Twins  
Calf
October 1, 2023
The Twins placed Keuchel on the 15-day injured list Sunday with a right calf strain, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports.
ANALYSIS
Jorge Alcala (forearm) was activated from the 60-day injured list in a corresponding move and will take Keuchel's place in the Twins' bullpen. Keuchel may not be dealing with anything serious, but given that he posted an 8.24 ERA and 1.88 WHIP in his last 19.2 innings, it makes sense that he wouldn't be in the mix for a spot on the postseason roster.
Read More News
Pitching Stats
Loading Pitching Stats...
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2023 MLB Game Log
Calculate Stats Over Time
Just click on any two dates.
Scoring
FanDuel
DraftKings
Yahoo DFS
Loading Pitching Game Log...
2022 MLB Game Log
Calculate Stats Over Time
Just click on any two dates.
Scoring
FanDuel
DraftKings
Yahoo DFS
Loading Pitching Game Log...
2021 MLB Game Log
Calculate Stats Over Time
Just click on any two dates.
Scoring
FanDuel
DraftKings
Yahoo DFS
Loading Pitching Game Log...
2020 MLB Game Log
Calculate Stats Over Time
Just click on any two dates.
Scoring
FanDuel
DraftKings
Yahoo DFS
Loading Pitching Game Log...
2019 MLB Game Log
Calculate Stats Over Time
Just click on any two dates.
Scoring
FanDuel
DraftKings
Yahoo DFS
Loading Pitching Game Log...
2018 MLB Game Log
Calculate Stats Over Time
Just click on any two dates.
Scoring
FanDuel
DraftKings
Yahoo DFS
Loading Pitching Game Log...
2017 MLB Game Log
Calculate Stats Over Time
Just click on any two dates.
Scoring
FanDuel
DraftKings
Yahoo DFS
Loading Pitching Game Log...
Minor League Game Log
Calculate Stats Over Time
Just click on any two dates.
Loading Minor League Pitching Game Log...
Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
66
Last 10 Games
66
Last 5 Games
63
How many pitches does Dallas Keuchel generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Dallas Keuchel generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2021
 
 
-1%
BAA vs RHP
2023
 
 
-12%
BAA vs LHP
2022
 
 
-1%
BAA vs RHP
2021
 
 
-6%
BAA vs RHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2021vs Left .309 248 41 24 69 13 2 4
Since 2021vs Right .305 947 124 84 259 55 7 35
2023vs Left .270 41 7 4 10 1 0 0
2023vs Right .307 131 18 14 35 12 1 3
2022vs Left .353 60 6 9 18 6 0 0
2022vs Right .349 243 39 22 76 15 3 11
2021vs Left .304 147 28 11 41 6 2 4
2021vs Right .286 573 67 48 148 28 3 21
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2021
 
 
-42%
ERA at Home
2023
 
 
-85%
ERA at Home
2022
 
 
-53%
ERA at Home
2021
 
 
-17%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2021Home 4.77 1.48 145.1 8 6 0 6.0 3.5 1.2
Since 2021Away 8.22 1.92 115.0 5 13 0 5.3 4.0 1.6
2023Home 2.33 1.26 27.0 2 0 0 5.7 3.3 0.0
2023Away 15.19 2.72 10.2 0 1 0 6.8 6.8 2.5
2022Home 6.45 1.81 37.2 1 4 0 6.5 4.5 1.2
2022Away 13.70 2.48 23.0 1 5 0 7.0 4.7 2.3
2021Home 4.80 1.40 80.2 5 2 0 5.9 3.1 1.6
2021Away 5.75 1.66 81.1 4 7 0 4.6 3.4 1.2
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Dallas Keuchel compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
1.39
 
K/9
6.0
 
BB/9
4.3
 
HR/9
0.7
 
Fastball
87.5 mph
 
ERA
5.97
 
WHIP
1.67
 
BABIP
.341
 
GB/FB
2.52
 
Left On Base
64.6%
 
Exit Velocity
81.0 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
4.8%
 
Spin Rate
1973 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
26.2%
 
Swinging Strike
8.4%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
Loading Advanced Pitching Stats...
Defensive Stats
Loading MLB Defensive Stats...
Stats Vs Today's Lineup
Want more matchup stats?
Loading Matchup Stats...
Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Dallas Keuchel See More
Collette Calls: A First Rounder Outta Nowhere
15 days ago
Every year, someone emerges from the middle or late rounds to produce first-round fantasy value. Who will that player be this season?
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
Keuchel posted a 1.99 ERA during the shortened 2020 campaign, but he struggled to a 5.28 ERA last season and was left off the roster for the playoffs. The veteran left-hander will remain at the back end of the rotation to begin 2022, but he'll need to rebound from the 5.0 percent K-BB% he posted last year. His 54.9 percent groundball rate was still strong (albeit down a bit from his career average), but he gave up the second-highest hard-hit rate (32.6 percent) of his career. Given the lack of strikeouts, Keuchel's fantasy upside is severely limited at best, even if he rediscovers his from a couple years go.
Keuchel recorded a career-best 1.99 ERA in 11 starts last season, though he benefited from quite a bit of good fortune to get there. His .255 BABIP, 81.6% strand rate and 4.7% HR/FB rate rate are all textbook indicators that regression is coming. The lefty's 3.08 FIP was quite strong, though that statistic gives a pitcher full credit for his HR/FB rate; xFIP, on the other hand, regresses that number all the way to league average and gives him a middling 3.98 mark. Keuchel's 3.59 career ERA nearly matches his 3.54 xFIP, so there's reason to believe his ERA will regress up towards 4.00 next season. If he combines that with last season's 16.3% strikeout rate, his lowest since his rookie season back in 2012, he'll be a rather unexciting option. He should still be useful (though age-related decline can't be ruled out in his age-33 season), but don't draft him expecting anything close to a 1.99 ERA.
Keuchel did not take the mound until late June as he was victimized by the cruel mixture of the qualifying offer and free agency. Anytime a pitcher misses that much time due to contractual issues, we expect struggles early and Keuchel was no different, as he went 3-5 with a 4.83 ERA and 1.36 WHIP over his first 10 starts. His final nine starts were closer to what Atlanta and fantasy owners wanted (5-3 with a 2.55 ERA), but the high WHIP remained. His 8.0 BB% was slightly above his career norms, but still reasonable for a No. 3 or No. 4 starter. The spike in home runs, well, nearly everyone had that issue last year. The White Sox inked him to a three-year, $55.5 million deal to help anchor a high-variance rotation. Yasmani Grandal's framing could aid his walk and strikeout rates slightly. Nonetheless, it's clear that the middle part of this decade was his peak.
Keuchel was able to stay healthy and make a career-high 34 starts in 2018, but the skills took a hit. While the lefty was able to keep the walks in check, he lost roughly four percentage points from his K-rate (17.5%), and his groundball rate fell to 53.7% -- still well above average, but a far cry from the 66.8% mark he had in 2017. He was able to cut back on the homers despite that dip in groundball rate, but it's tough to bank on that trend continuing. As he enters his age-31 season and moves on from the Astros in free agency, Keuchel looks like he still has something in the tank, but the decline in the quality of his sinker, slider and changeup point to this being the beginning of the downward slope. This is a former AL Cy Young winner who has posted sub-3.00 ERAs in three of the past five seasons, but at this stage a low-4.00s ERA may be a more realistic expectation.
At least according to FIP (3.87 in 2016, 3.79 in 2017), Keuchel wasn’t a dramatically different pitcher last season, but he noticed far better results than the year prior. For the third time in four seasons, Keuchel finished with a sub-3.00 ERA while adding to his value with a 1.12 WHIP and 14 wins. The impact of those numbers was somewhat dampened by Keuchel missing most of June and July while recovering from a neck issue, and after a brilliant first half, he was far less productive after the break, managing only a 4.24 ERA and 1.39 WHIP across 70 frames. With a fastball that tops out in the high 80s, Keuchel will never be the strikeout-per-inning pitcher that typifies most aces, but his ability to generate ample groundballs and avoid damage via the long ball are skills that have routinely helped him outperform his peripherals. Moreover, with a power-packed offense backing him again, Keuchel’s path to wins will be more favorable than most other starters of his caliber.
The league adjusted to the 2015 Cy Young winner in a big way (4.80 ERA, 2.8 K/BB first half) and while he started to adjust back in the second half (3.94 ERA, 3.6 K/BB), he then lost the final month of the season to a shoulder injury. The major change was that the opposition started swinging less often at Keuchel's pitches out of the zone, which forced him back into the zone in hitter-friendly or even counts. Additionally, his OPS-against on plate appearances ending out of the zone skyrocketed from a league-best .339 in 2015 to .530 last year -- or slightly better than the .579 average (min. 150 IP). Each one of his pitches performed worse, too, but especially his "hard" stuff. The fastball and cutter combined for an .837 OPS, up from .669 in 2015. He was cleared to resume throwing this offseason and should enter camp healthy. Keuchel is definitely far from his 2015 peak, but he's better than his 2016 bottom line. Don't pay for more than high-3.00s ERA.
Keuchel proved just how dominant of a pitcher he can be last season, especially when inside the confines of Minute Maid Park. The AL Cy Young Award finalist was a perfect 15-0 at home en route a 20-8 record overall, with a 2.48 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 216:51 K:BB ratio over a career-high 232 innings. His groundball rate (2.29 GO/AO) was second-best in the majors and he once again led all pitchers in assists (53) to win the AL Gold Glove award for the second consecutive year. Keuchel has clearly established himself as a reliable fantasy ace who is worth drafting among the top-10 starters in all formats.
After two straight seasons with an ERA above five, Keuchel came out of nowhere to establish himself as a premier pitcher in 2014. The left-hander reached 200 innings exactly, going 12-9 with a 2.93 ERA and leading the AL with five complete games. His groundball rate (2.83 GO/AO) was the best in the majors by far and he led all pitchers in total chances (66) and assists (47) to win the AL Gold Glove award. Keuchel's 3.21 FIP indicates his success was no fluke, and his remarkable season puts him in line to start Opening Day for the Astros in 2015.
Keuchel didn't make the Astros' roster out of camp, but he saw significant time in the majors last season due to injuries/ineffectiveness of other pitchers. In 153.2 innings (22 starts), the 26-year-old lefty compiled a 6-10 record with a 5.15 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. Those numbers are nothing to write home about, but Keuchel significantly improved his strikeout rate (7.2 K/9) and walk rate (3.1 BB/9) over the year prior. The extreme groundballer (2.07 GO/AO) will have to battle for a spot in the starting rotation out of camp, but will likely make the roster in some capacity, be it as a starter or long reliever.
Keuchel finished 2012 with a 3-8 record and a brutal 5.27 ERA. He is not going to blow anyone away, and without an out pitch to speak of (last year he struck out just 4.0 K/9), his pitch-to-contact approach has to keep the ball on the ground to be effective. The Astros would like to see him get a little bigger and stronger, and hope he will be able to establish his sinker more by taking a few miles-per-hour off of it to allow for more movement. He will have a lot to prove this spring, but has likely shown enough to break camp with the team.
More Fantasy News
Shifting to relief role
PMinnesota Twins  
September 16, 2023
Manager Rocco Baldelli said Saturday that Keuchel isn't in line to make another start and has been moved to the bullpen, Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press reports.
ANALYSIS
Subscribe now to instantly reveal our take on this news.
Lasts just four innings
PMinnesota Twins  
September 13, 2023
Keuchel did not factor into the decision Wednesday, allowing four runs on six hits and three walks over four innings against the Rays. He struck out three.
ANALYSIS
Subscribe now to instantly reveal our take on this news.
Fans six in no-decision
PMinnesota Twins  
September 8, 2023
Keuchel did not factor in the decision Friday, allowing two runs on three hits and two walks over five innings during the Twins' win over the Mets. He struck out six.
ANALYSIS
Subscribe now to instantly reveal our take on this news.
Hit hard by Texas
PMinnesota Twins  
September 2, 2023
Keuchel allowed five runs on five hits and one walk while striking out two batters over 3.1 innings in a no-decision against the Rangers on Saturday.
ANALYSIS
Subscribe now to instantly reveal our take on this news.
Rejoining rotation
PMinnesota Twins  
August 29, 2023
Keuchel will re-enter the Minnesota rotation after Bailey Ober was optioned to Triple-A St. Paul on Monday, Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune reports.
ANALYSIS
Subscribe now to instantly reveal our take on this news.