Jake Odorizzi
Jake Odorizzi
29-Year-Old PitcherSP
Minnesota Twins
2019 Fantasy Outlook
Odorizzi arrived in an offseason trade from Tampa Bay and while his ERA, WHIP and win total declined, most of his peripheral numbers improved. His K/9 increased from 8.0 to 8.9 and he gave up fewer home runs (15.5% HR/FB in 2017, 8.9% HR/FB in 2018). However, his inability to pitch deep into games suppressed his fantasy value. Odorizzi's wOBA allowed jumped from .278 and .290 the first two times through the batting order to .473 the third time. Odorizzi had success with his four-seam fastball, sinker and changeup, but hitters teed off on the rest of his offerings. He exhausts his pitch count with a high number of foul balls so he can become tired and overexposed later in games. He's a prime candidate for the Twins to pair him with an opener, which could help his ratios and could potentially lead to more wins, as he would be removed later in the game. He's set to begin the season as the No. 3 or No. 4 starter. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
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$Agreed to a one-year, $17.8 million contract as part of accepting a qualifying offer in Nov. 2019.
WIll accept qualifying offer
PMinnesota Twins
November 14, 2019
Odorizzi will accept a qualifying offer from Minnesota, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports.
ANALYSIS
Odorizzi will sign a one-year, $17.8 million contract as a result. Odorizzi is coming off the best season of his career with 15 wins, a 3.51 ERA and career-best 27.1 percent strikeout rate. His return is a big boost to the Twins, who previously only had Jose Berrios set to return among their top four starters.
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
93
Last 10 Games
97
Last 5 Games
92
How many pitches does Jake Odorizzi generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Jake Odorizzi generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2017
 
 
-8%
BAA vs RHP
2019
 
 
-30%
BAA vs RHP
2018
 
 
-4%
BAA vs LHP
2017
 
 
-8%
BAA vs LHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2017vs Left .243 896 210 80 194 49 5 29
Since 2017vs Right .224 1077 257 104 213 42 4 37
2019vs Left .277 320 91 26 80 15 2 8
2019vs Right .194 338 87 27 59 14 0 8
2018vs Left .236 322 67 30 67 24 3 10
2018vs Right .246 389 95 40 84 17 2 10
2017vs Left .210 254 52 24 47 10 0 11
2017vs Right .228 350 75 37 70 11 2 19
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2017
 
 
-4%
ERA on Road
2019
 
 
-6%
ERA at Home
2018
 
 
-8%
ERA on Road
2017
 
 
-7%
ERA on Road
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2017Home 4.12 1.28 251.1 17 13 0 9.4 3.2 1.4
Since 2017Away 3.97 1.25 215.1 15 12 0 8.6 4.0 1.1
2019Home 3.42 1.25 84.1 7 3 0 11.0 2.8 1.2
2019Away 3.62 1.17 74.2 8 4 0 9.0 3.3 0.6
2018Home 4.69 1.38 80.2 5 4 0 9.0 3.3 1.0
2018Away 4.30 1.31 83.2 2 6 0 8.7 4.3 1.2
2017Home 4.27 1.22 86.1 5 6 0 8.1 3.4 2.0
2017Away 3.95 1.28 57.0 5 2 0 7.7 4.4 1.7
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Jake Odorizzi compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
3.36
 
K/9
10.1
 
BB/9
3.0
 
HR/9
0.9
 
Fastball
92.9 mph
 
ERA
3.51
 
WHIP
1.21
 
BABIP
.313
 
GB/FB
0.88
 
Left On Base
74.9%
 
Exit Velocity
89.1 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
7.0%
 
Spin Rate
2041 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
36.6%
 
Swinging Strike
13.1%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
Odorizzi has outperformed his peripherals in each of the past three seasons, but the gap was more pronounced in 2017. The right-hander finished with a low-4.00s ERA, but his FIP was more than a run worse at 5.43. His walk rate jumped from 7.0 percent to 10.1 percent and Odorizzi struggled with the long ball (30 homers allowed) as his groundball rate fell six percentage points to 30.6 percent -- well below the league average. He struggled mightily while working the third time through the order (7.52 ERA), but was bailed out by good fortune on balls in play (.227 BABIP). To his credit, Odorizzi held lefties to a .205/.285/.402 line. He made two trips to the DL, first for a hamstring injury and later for a back injury, but Odorizzi has made at least 28 starts in four consecutive seasons and should be secure in his role. Just don't be surprised if his chances to work deep into games are limited.
Odorizzi tallied the second double-digit win season of his career in 2016 while firing a personal-best 187.2 innings over 33 starts. It was his work in the second half of the season that truly bears mentioning, however, as the 27-year-old was 7-1 with a 2.71 ERA and .290 wOBA allowed. Most of his metrics saw improvement after the All-Star break, providing plenty of reason for optimism heading into the spring. What was of some concern from a season-to-season comparison between 2016 and the prior year was a slight uptick in susceptibility to hard contact and the long ball, two areas in which the right-hander regressed. Odorizzi's HR/9 jumped from a solid 0.96 in 2015 to 1.39 last season, while his hard contact rate allowed bumped up to 33.7 percent from 26.9 percent. His control remained solid, however, as evidenced by a 1.19 WHIP, and he's certainly capable of building on his 10-win tally if he can have the benefit of a better offense around him in 2017.
Odorizzi got off to a tremendous start in 2015. After his June 5 start, he was 12th in ERA (2.47) and WHIP (1.02) and 16th in OPS-against (.611). His strikeouts were down quite a bit from 2014 (7.4 K/9), but so were his walks (1.8 BB/9), a trade-off that worked well for him. He left that June 5 start early, though, and it turned out to be an oblique that cost him a month. He wasn't the same after returning. His lows were lower (starts of six, six and five earned runs) and his ERA was inflated. The strikeouts came back (8.4 K/9), but so did the walks (3.0 BB/9), which made the home-run rate spike (1.3 HR/9) especially painful. There was a groundball/flyball split with the injury, too. He had more success with the medium-strikeout, low-walk and high-GB approach compared to the high-strikeout, medium-walk and high-FB approach of his post-injury work. The latter fits his 2014, which yielded a 4.13 ERA. If that early 2015 approach is real, he will have plenty of upside.
The 4.13 ERA was not much to write home about, and neither was the 1.28 WHIP coming off the 1.21 WHIP he had in 2013. The story of 2014 was Odorizzi’s growth in strikeouts, as he learned to pitch with a split-changeup taught to him by Alex Cobb. Odorizzi’s strikeout rate jumped from 18 percent to 24 percent, but a few hanging changeups and some misplaced fastballs led to 20 home runs allowed on the season. Early on in 2014, Odorizzi had tremendous issues going through a lineup a second or third time, but an adjustment in his process led to much better pitching for most of the summer before he hit a wall in September. The next step for Odorizzi will be to work deeper into games as he only went at least six innings in 14 of his 31 outings. His flyball tendencies are always going to make him susceptible to the home run, which limits his overall upside.
In his first year in the Rays' organization after being acquired as part of the trade of James Shields to the Royals, Odorizzi spent most of his season with Triple-A Durham. For the second season in a row, he was productive at the Triple-A level, going 9-6 with a 3.33 ERA over 22 starts. He improved his strikeout rate to 9.0 K/9. The young right-hander made four spot starts with the Rays before he was called up for good in September to be a long man out of the bullpen. The only thing keeping him from the major league rotation is a crowd of talented arms above him in Tampa Bay. He has solid location and a well-rounded selection of pitches that project him into the middle of a big-league rotation some day. He will enter spring training in 2014 in competition for a rotation spot with the Rays.
Though not originally considered one of the Royals' top pitching prospects, Odorizzi put together an incredible 2012 that vaulted him up the ladder within the Kansas City organization. The 6-foot-2 right-hander has a solid four-pitch arsenal, good command of the strike zone and a fastball that tops out around 94 mph. He cruised through Double-A to open the season, posting a 4-2 record with a 3.32 ERA over seven starts and had a 47:10 K:BB over 38 innings while holding the opposition to a .191 average. Both his walk and strikeout rates came back down to earth when he moved up a level, but through 19 starts for Triple-A Omaha, he finished with an 11-3 record and a 2.93 ERA. Traded to the Rays in December, Odorizzi could be limited to a partial season in the Rays' rotation given the team's starting pitching depth.
The best pitching prospect in the Royals system, Odorizzi should have no problem attracting attention from fantasy owners in keeper leagues. Odorizzi dominated High-A Wilmington, before being challenged by Double-A Northwest Arkansas. He was able to maintain his control, but the dominance that allowed him to overpower hitters in Low-A and High-A just wasn't there. Before last season Odorizzi didn't have problems with the long ball, but he served up 13 homers over 68.2 innings. Considering these hurdles, it wouldn't be surprising to see him spend all of 2012 between Double-A and Triple-A as he continues to grow as a pitcher.
Odorizzi was Milwaukee's top pitching prospect and solidified that in 2010 before he was traded to Kansas City as part of the Zack Greinke deal. He had a 3.43 ERA with a 10.11 K/9IP in 120.2 innings for Low-A Wisconsin. Control was an issue at times, but scouts love his size and stuff. He'll move up to High-A in 2011 with an eye toward contributing at the major league level in 2012 or 2013.
More Fantasy News
Receives qualifying offer
PFree Agent
November 4, 2019
Odorizzi will receive a qualifying offer from the Twins, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports.
ANALYSIS
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Tabbed for Game 3
PMinnesota Twins
October 4, 2019
Odorizzi will start Game 3 of the ALDS against the Yankees on Monday, Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Not starting Sunday
PMinnesota Twins
September 28, 2019
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Slated to start season finale
PMinnesota Twins
September 27, 2019
Odorizzi (hamstring) is listed as Sunday's starter against the Royals.
ANALYSIS
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Exits with tight hamstring
PMinnesota Twins
Hamstring
September 24, 2019
Odorizzi left Tuesday's game against the Tigers with a tight left hamstring and is day-to-day, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports.
ANALYSIS
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