Jake Odorizzi
Jake Odorizzi
28-Year-Old PitcherSP
Minnesota Twins
2019 Fantasy Outlook
Odorizzi arrived in an offseason trade from Tampa Bay and while his ERA, WHIP and win total declined, most of his peripheral numbers improved. His K/9 increased from 8.0 to 8.9 and he gave up fewer home runs (15.5% HR/FB in 2017, 8.9% HR/FB in 2018). However, his inability to pitch deep into games suppressed his fantasy value. Odorizzi's wOBA allowed jumped from .278 and .290 the first two times through the batting order to .473 the third time. Odorizzi had success with his four-seam fastball, sinker and changeup, but hitters teed off on the rest of his offerings. He exhausts his pitch count with a high number of foul balls so he can become tired and overexposed later in games. He's a prime candidate for the Twins to pair him with an opener, which could help his ratios and could potentially lead to more wins, as he would be removed later in the game. He's set to begin the season as the No. 3 or No. 4 starter. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
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$Signed a one-year, $9.5 million contract with the Twins in January of 2019, avoiding arbitration.
Not worried about poor spring start
PMinnesota Twins
March 11, 2019
Odorizzi gave up five runs on two home runs while retiring just two batters in Sunday's spring training loss to Toronto. Odorizzi said he was focusing on using his curveball and wasn't bothered by the results, Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star Tribune reports. "I didn't throw many fastballs, but that was by design. I'm not going to go to my good stuff when I want to work on the other stuff that's not as good," he said.
This is an example of when spring training results may not indicate much with a veteran who is assured of a spot in the rotation. Odorizzi looks fully healthy and set to begin the season in the rotation. The Twins may use an opener for Odorizzi's starts, given that he struggles mightily the third time he faces a lineup, but this could actually lead to him qualifying for more wins in 2019.
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Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2017
No Stats
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2017vs Left .224 576 119 54 114 34 3 21
Since 2017vs Right .238 739 170 77 154 28 4 29
2019vs Left 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2019vs Right 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2018vs Left .236 322 67 30 67 24 3 10
2018vs Right .246 389 95 40 84 17 2 10
2017vs Left .210 254 52 24 47 10 0 11
2017vs Right .228 350 75 37 70 11 2 19
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Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2017
ERA on Road
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ERA on Road
ERA on Road
Since 2017Home 4.47 1.29 166.0 10 10 0 8.6 3.4 1.5
Since 2017Away 4.16 1.30 140.2 7 8 0 8.3 4.4 1.4
2019Home 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2019Away 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2018Home 4.69 1.38 80.2 5 4 0 9.0 3.3 1.0
2018Away 4.30 1.31 83.2 2 6 0 8.7 4.3 1.2
2017Home 4.27 1.22 86.1 5 6 0 8.1 3.4 2.0
2017Away 3.95 1.28 57.0 5 2 0 7.7 4.4 1.7
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Stat Review
How does Jake Odorizzi compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings). The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.
91.1 mph
Strand %
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
Odorizzi has outperformed his peripherals in each of the past three seasons, but the gap was more pronounced in 2017. The right-hander finished with a low-4.00s ERA, but his FIP was more than a run worse at 5.43. His walk rate jumped from 7.0 percent to 10.1 percent and Odorizzi struggled with the long ball (30 homers allowed) as his groundball rate fell six percentage points to 30.6 percent -- well below the league average. He struggled mightily while working the third time through the order (7.52 ERA), but was bailed out by good fortune on balls in play (.227 BABIP). To his credit, Odorizzi held lefties to a .205/.285/.402 line. He made two trips to the DL, first for a hamstring injury and later for a back injury, but Odorizzi has made at least 28 starts in four consecutive seasons and should be secure in his role. Just don't be surprised if his chances to work deep into games are limited.
Odorizzi tallied the second double-digit win season of his career in 2016 while firing a personal-best 187.2 innings over 33 starts. It was his work in the second half of the season that truly bears mentioning, however, as the 27-year-old was 7-1 with a 2.71 ERA and .290 wOBA allowed. Most of his metrics saw improvement after the All-Star break, providing plenty of reason for optimism heading into the spring. What was of some concern from a season-to-season comparison between 2016 and the prior year was a slight uptick in susceptibility to hard contact and the long ball, two areas in which the right-hander regressed. Odorizzi's HR/9 jumped from a solid 0.96 in 2015 to 1.39 last season, while his hard contact rate allowed bumped up to 33.7 percent from 26.9 percent. His control remained solid, however, as evidenced by a 1.19 WHIP, and he's certainly capable of building on his 10-win tally if he can have the benefit of a better offense around him in 2017.
Odorizzi got off to a tremendous start in 2015. After his June 5 start, he was 12th in ERA (2.47) and WHIP (1.02) and 16th in OPS-against (.611). His strikeouts were down quite a bit from 2014 (7.4 K/9), but so were his walks (1.8 BB/9), a trade-off that worked well for him. He left that June 5 start early, though, and it turned out to be an oblique that cost him a month. He wasn't the same after returning. His lows were lower (starts of six, six and five earned runs) and his ERA was inflated. The strikeouts came back (8.4 K/9), but so did the walks (3.0 BB/9), which made the home-run rate spike (1.3 HR/9) especially painful. There was a groundball/flyball split with the injury, too. He had more success with the medium-strikeout, low-walk and high-GB approach compared to the high-strikeout, medium-walk and high-FB approach of his post-injury work. The latter fits his 2014, which yielded a 4.13 ERA. If that early 2015 approach is real, he will have plenty of upside.
The 4.13 ERA was not much to write home about, and neither was the 1.28 WHIP coming off the 1.21 WHIP he had in 2013. The story of 2014 was Odorizzi’s growth in strikeouts, as he learned to pitch with a split-changeup taught to him by Alex Cobb. Odorizzi’s strikeout rate jumped from 18 percent to 24 percent, but a few hanging changeups and some misplaced fastballs led to 20 home runs allowed on the season. Early on in 2014, Odorizzi had tremendous issues going through a lineup a second or third time, but an adjustment in his process led to much better pitching for most of the summer before he hit a wall in September. The next step for Odorizzi will be to work deeper into games as he only went at least six innings in 14 of his 31 outings. His flyball tendencies are always going to make him susceptible to the home run, which limits his overall upside.
In his first year in the Rays' organization after being acquired as part of the trade of James Shields to the Royals, Odorizzi spent most of his season with Triple-A Durham. For the second season in a row, he was productive at the Triple-A level, going 9-6 with a 3.33 ERA over 22 starts. He improved his strikeout rate to 9.0 K/9. The young right-hander made four spot starts with the Rays before he was called up for good in September to be a long man out of the bullpen. The only thing keeping him from the major league rotation is a crowd of talented arms above him in Tampa Bay. He has solid location and a well-rounded selection of pitches that project him into the middle of a big-league rotation some day. He will enter spring training in 2014 in competition for a rotation spot with the Rays.
Though not originally considered one of the Royals' top pitching prospects, Odorizzi put together an incredible 2012 that vaulted him up the ladder within the Kansas City organization. The 6-foot-2 right-hander has a solid four-pitch arsenal, good command of the strike zone and a fastball that tops out around 94 mph. He cruised through Double-A to open the season, posting a 4-2 record with a 3.32 ERA over seven starts and had a 47:10 K:BB over 38 innings while holding the opposition to a .191 average. Both his walk and strikeout rates came back down to earth when he moved up a level, but through 19 starts for Triple-A Omaha, he finished with an 11-3 record and a 2.93 ERA. Traded to the Rays in December, Odorizzi could be limited to a partial season in the Rays' rotation given the team's starting pitching depth.
The best pitching prospect in the Royals system, Odorizzi should have no problem attracting attention from fantasy owners in keeper leagues. Odorizzi dominated High-A Wilmington, before being challenged by Double-A Northwest Arkansas. He was able to maintain his control, but the dominance that allowed him to overpower hitters in Low-A and High-A just wasn't there. Before last season Odorizzi didn't have problems with the long ball, but he served up 13 homers over 68.2 innings. Considering these hurdles, it wouldn't be surprising to see him spend all of 2012 between Double-A and Triple-A as he continues to grow as a pitcher.
Odorizzi was Milwaukee's top pitching prospect and solidified that in 2010 before he was traded to Kansas City as part of the Zack Greinke deal. He had a 3.43 ERA with a 10.11 K/9IP in 120.2 innings for Low-A Wisconsin. Control was an issue at times, but scouts love his size and stuff. He'll move up to High-A in 2011 with an eye toward contributing at the major league level in 2012 or 2013.
More Fantasy News
Strong showing in spring debut
PMinnesota Twins
March 6, 2019
Odorizzi threw 2.2 scoreless innings with four strikeouts in his spring debut Tuesday. "It was probably a good thing that Odo was cruising really well, and having to throw a few extra pitches," manager Rocco Baldelli told the St. Paul Pioneer Press.
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Reaches deal with Minnesota
PMinnesota Twins
January 11, 2019
Odorizzi and the Twins avoided arbitration Friday by agreeing to a one-year, $9.5 million contract, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports.
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Allows four in short outing
PMinnesota Twins
September 26, 2018
Odorizzi allowed four runs on six hits and five walks while striking out three over three innings in Wednesday's win over the Tigers. He did not factor into the decision.
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Delivers quality start in win over Tigers
PMinnesota Twins
September 19, 2018
Odorizzi (7-10) allowed two runs on four hits and one walk across 6.1 innings Tuesday to earn the win over the Tigers. He struck out six.
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Allows just one hit in win
PMinnesota Twins
September 12, 2018
Odorizzi (6-10) got the win Wednesday, allowing one run on one hit and three walks while striking out five over 7.1 innings against the Yankees.
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