Jake Odorizzi

Odorizzi had the best season of his career with 15 wins, a 3.51 ERA and career-best 27.1% strikeout rate. He worked on his mechanics in the offseason to add more velocity (92.9 mph average fastball, up 1.3 ticks from his previous career high). He also improved when facing the batting order a third time (.367 wOBA vs. .473 wOBA in 2018) as the Twins picked their spots better in choosing when to keep him in longer. Odorozzi can be prone to the long ball and giving up too many free passes, but he kept the ball in the park at a career-low 0.91 HR/9 rate last season. His 35 GB% and 8.1 BB% weren't great, but they were his best marks since 2016. He's also been durable with 28 or more starts each of the past six seasons. With all his metrics improving, and after accepting the Twins' qualifying offer, he looks set for another solid season near the top of the Minnesota rotation.

Odorizzi arrived in an offseason trade from Tampa Bay and while his ERA, WHIP and win total declined, most of his peripheral numbers improved. His K/9 increased from 8.0 to 8.9 and he gave up fewer home runs (15.5% HR/FB in 2017, 8.9% HR/FB in 2018). However, his inability to pitch deep into games suppressed his fantasy value. Odorizzi's wOBA allowed jumped from .278 and .290 the first two times through the batting order to .473 the third time. Odorizzi had success with his four-seam fastball, sinker and changeup, but hitters teed off on the rest of his offerings. He exhausts his pitch count with a high number of foul balls so he can become tired and overexposed later in games. He's a prime candidate for the Twins to pair him with an opener, which could help his ratios and could potentially lead to more wins, as he would be removed later in the game. He's set to begin the season as the No. 3 or No. 4 starter.

Odorizzi has outperformed his peripherals in each of the past three seasons, but the gap was more pronounced in 2017. The right-hander finished with a low-4.00s ERA, but his FIP was more than a run worse at 5.43. His walk rate jumped from 7.0 percent to 10.1 percent and Odorizzi struggled with the long ball (30 homers allowed) as his groundball rate fell six percentage points to 30.6 percent -- well below the league average. He struggled mightily while working the third time through the order (7.52 ERA), but was bailed out by good fortune on balls in play (.227 BABIP). To his credit, Odorizzi held lefties to a .205/.285/.402 line. He made two trips to the DL, first for a hamstring injury and later for a back injury, but Odorizzi has made at least 28 starts in four consecutive seasons and should be secure in his role. Just don't be surprised if his chances to work deep into games are limited.

Odorizzi tallied the second double-digit win season of his career in 2016 while firing a personal-best 187.2 innings over 33 starts. It was his work in the second half of the season that truly bears mentioning, however, as the 27-year-old was 7-1 with a 2.71 ERA and .290 wOBA allowed. Most of his metrics saw improvement after the All-Star break, providing plenty of reason for optimism heading into the spring. What was of some concern from a season-to-season comparison between 2016 and the prior year was a slight uptick in susceptibility to hard contact and the long ball, two areas in which the right-hander regressed. Odorizzi's HR/9 jumped from a solid 0.96 in 2015 to 1.39 last season, while his hard contact rate allowed bumped up to 33.7 percent from 26.9 percent. His control remained solid, however, as evidenced by a 1.19 WHIP, and he's certainly capable of building on his 10-win tally if he can have the benefit of a better offense around him in 2017.

Odorizzi got off to a tremendous start in 2015. After his June 5 start, he was 12th in ERA (2.47) and WHIP (1.02) and 16th in OPS-against (.611). His strikeouts were down quite a bit from 2014 (7.4 K/9), but so were his walks (1.8 BB/9), a trade-off that worked well for him. He left that June 5 start early, though, and it turned out to be an oblique that cost him a month. He wasn't the same after returning. His lows were lower (starts of six, six and five earned runs) and his ERA was inflated. The strikeouts came back (8.4 K/9), but so did the walks (3.0 BB/9), which made the home-run rate spike (1.3 HR/9) especially painful. There was a groundball/flyball split with the injury, too. He had more success with the medium-strikeout, low-walk and high-GB approach compared to the high-strikeout, medium-walk and high-FB approach of his post-injury work. The latter fits his 2014, which yielded a 4.13 ERA. If that early 2015 approach is real, he will have plenty of upside.

The 4.13 ERA was not much to write home about, and neither was the 1.28 WHIP coming off the 1.21 WHIP he had in 2013. The story of 2014 was Odorizzi’s growth in strikeouts, as he learned to pitch with a split-changeup taught to him by Alex Cobb. Odorizzi’s strikeout rate jumped from 18 percent to 24 percent, but a few hanging changeups and some misplaced fastballs led to 20 home runs allowed on the season. Early on in 2014, Odorizzi had tremendous issues going through a lineup a second or third time, but an adjustment in his process led to much better pitching for most of the summer before he hit a wall in September. The next step for Odorizzi will be to work deeper into games as he only went at least six innings in 14 of his 31 outings. His flyball tendencies are always going to make him susceptible to the home run, which limits his overall upside.

In his first year in the Rays' organization after being acquired as part of the trade of James Shields to the Royals, Odorizzi spent most of his season with Triple-A Durham. For the second season in a row, he was productive at the Triple-A level, going 9-6 with a 3.33 ERA over 22 starts. He improved his strikeout rate to 9.0 K/9. The young right-hander made four spot starts with the Rays before he was called up for good in September to be a long man out of the bullpen. The only thing keeping him from the major league rotation is a crowd of talented arms above him in Tampa Bay. He has solid location and a well-rounded selection of pitches that project him into the middle of a big-league rotation some day. He will enter spring training in 2014 in competition for a rotation spot with the Rays.

Though not originally considered one of the Royals' top pitching prospects, Odorizzi put together an incredible 2012 that vaulted him up the ladder within the Kansas City organization. The 6-foot-2 right-hander has a solid four-pitch arsenal, good command of the strike zone and a fastball that tops out around 94 mph. He cruised through Double-A to open the season, posting a 4-2 record with a 3.32 ERA over seven starts and had a 47:10 K:BB over 38 innings while holding the opposition to a .191 average. Both his walk and strikeout rates came back down to earth when he moved up a level, but through 19 starts for Triple-A Omaha, he finished with an 11-3 record and a 2.93 ERA. Traded to the Rays in December, Odorizzi could be limited to a partial season in the Rays' rotation given the team's starting pitching depth.

The best pitching prospect in the Royals system, Odorizzi should have no problem attracting attention from fantasy owners in keeper leagues. Odorizzi dominated High-A Wilmington, before being challenged by Double-A Northwest Arkansas. He was able to maintain his control, but the dominance that allowed him to overpower hitters in Low-A and High-A just wasn't there. Before last season Odorizzi didn't have problems with the long ball, but he served up 13 homers over 68.2 innings. Considering these hurdles, it wouldn't be surprising to see him spend all of 2012 between Double-A and Triple-A as he continues to grow as a pitcher.

Odorizzi was Milwaukee's top pitching prospect and solidified that in 2010 before he was traded to Kansas City as part of the Zack Greinke deal. He had a 3.43 ERA with a 10.11 K/9IP in 120.2 innings for Low-A Wisconsin. Control was an issue at times, but scouts love his size and stuff. He'll move up to High-A in 2011 with an eye toward contributing at the major league level in 2012 or 2013.