Gerrit Cole
Gerrit Cole
28-Year-Old PitcherSP
Houston Astros
2018 Fantasy Outlook
Few pitchers were impacted as negatively by the Great Home Run Spike as Cole. His HR/9 shot from 0.54 in 2016 to 1.37 last season, which was the main culprit behind his nearly 50-point increase in ERA. Cole improved his strikeout and walk rates in his age-26 season, adding a full strikeout to his K/9, and in turn shaved 21 points off his xFIP. Most importantly, the right-hander managed to avoid the injury bug after missing the end of 2016 with an elbow ligament injury, exceeding 200 innings for the second time in his career -- Cole was one of just 15 major-league arms to reach 200 innings in 2017. The issues with the long ball may very well persist, but that's going to be the case with a lot of talented pitchers in today's landscape. Health remains the biggest concern, but Cole has a case as an SP2 in mixed leagues following the move to Houston as (believe it or not) it is a significant park upgrade. Read Past Outlooks
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$Agreed to a one-year, $6.75 million deal with the Pirates in January of 2018, avoiding arbitration.
Fans 12 in win
PHouston Astros
September 21, 2018
Cole (15-5) earned the win in Friday's game against the the Angels. He allowed three earned runs on six hits and no walks over seven innings with 12 strikeouts.
ANALYSIS
Cole was dominant in the victory, throwing 71 of his 102 pitches for strikes. It was the eighth time this season that he has stuck out more than 10 batters in a start, and his strikeout numbers remain elite (272 strikeouts over 194.1 innings in 2018). Cole owns an impressive 2.92 ERA (2.98 xFIP) on the season, and he'll likely make one more appearance in the regular season before the Astros begin postseason play.
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Pitching Stats
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Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2016
 
 
-2%
BAA vs RHP
2018
 
 
-29%
BAA vs LHP
2017
 
 
-10%
BAA vs RHP
2016
 
 
-23%
BAA vs RHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2016vs Left .245 1001 298 81 222 52 6 28
Since 2016vs Right .239 1103 256 73 240 49 2 28
2018vs Left .161 359 151 37 51 12 1 7
2018vs Right .227 390 109 26 81 21 0 11
2017vs Left .268 404 92 26 101 17 4 18
2017vs Right .241 445 104 29 98 19 2 13
2016vs Left .329 238 55 18 70 23 1 3
2016vs Right .253 268 43 18 61 9 0 4
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Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2016
 
 
-3%
ERA at Home
2018
 
 
-2%
ERA on Road
2017
 
 
-2%
ERA on Road
2016
 
 
-18%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2016Home 3.61 1.16 246.0 12 12 0 9.7 2.6 0.9
Since 2016Away 3.71 1.27 259.1 21 15 0 10.0 2.8 1.1
2018Home 2.92 0.97 89.1 7 2 0 13.0 2.8 0.9
2018Away 2.85 1.10 98.0 7 3 0 12.0 3.2 0.8
2017Home 4.31 1.22 94.0 3 5 0 8.2 2.4 1.1
2017Away 4.21 1.28 109.0 9 7 0 9.1 2.5 1.7
2016Home 3.53 1.34 63.2 2 5 0 7.2 2.7 0.6
2016Away 4.30 1.57 52.1 5 5 0 8.1 2.9 0.5
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Stat Review
How does Gerrit Cole compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings). The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.
K/BB
4.32
 
K/9
12.6
 
BB/9
2.9
 
HR/9
0.9
 
Fastball
96.6 mph
 
ERA
2.92
 
WHIP
1.03
 
BABIP
.301
 
GB/FB
1.01
 
Strand %
75.8%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
Cole landed on the disabled list three times in 2016. An elbow ligament injury ultimately ended his season after he tried pitching through the pain. He opted for rest over offseason surgery. When Cole did toe the rubber, the results were disappointing with the right-hander registering career-worst numbers across the board: 3.88 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9. His average fastball velocity (95.2 mph) was close to his career mark (95.4 mph), but the pinpoint accuracy was lacking. Cole is a rebound candidate -- he's one season removed from 19-8, 2.60 ERA, 1-09 WHIP and 202 strikeouts in 208 IP -- but he also carries more risk than other starters in his tier.
Cole appeared en route to an elite season in 2015 before a second half slowdown put a small damper on things. He went 13-3 with a 2.30 ERA and 1.12 WHIP leading up to the All-Star Game, only to go 6-5 with a 2.98 ERA and 1.06 WHIP the rest of the way (not exactly bad numbers). For whatever reason, the 25-year-old posted much better numbers during day games (10-1, 2.05 ERA) than at night (9-7, 3.00 ERA). He increased his slider usage from 12.1% to 21.2%, which enhanced his effectiveness, but keep in mind that pitchers who rely heavily on sliders tend to get hurt more frequently than those who don’t. Aside from the increased slider reliance, there is no reason why Cole can’t put together another outstanding campaign in 2016.
The budding ace battled injury and inconsistent velocity in his sophomore season for the Bucs. Cole, who made two separate trips to the disabled list with shoulder fatigue and a lat strain, made seven starts upon his return in late August, going 4-1 with a 3.44 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 60 strikeouts in 52.1 innings. At times his velocity dipped, even within the same starts, though his overall fastball velocity fell only slightly (96.1 mph to 95.5 mph) from 2013. For the season, he compiled a 3.65 ERA (3.30 FIP), 1.21 WHIP and 138 strikeouts in 138 innings. If Cole can improve upon his .316 BABIP, there's a good chance he'll return better overall numbers. With a little bit better luck in the injury department, the hard-throwing righty could break out the way many expected him to last season.
Cole won his first four starts in Pittsburgh, but struck out only 11 batters in the process. Theories were floated: Cole himself said that he was pitching to contact and hadn't unleashed his entire repertoire. After coming up second best in an Aug. 8 showdown with fellow phenom Jose Fernandez, Cole elevated his game to a new level. In his final eight starts, the 2011 first-overall draft pick went 6-2 with a 2.28 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 53:13 K:BB ratio. Cole led all major league pitchers with a 96.1 mph average fastball (110 IP minimum). The Pirates then chose Cole over A.J. Burnett to start Game 5 of the NLDS, an indication of his top-of-the-rotation status. The 6-foot-4, 235-pound right-hander matured in the majors in a very short time period. It wouldn't be surprising to see him encounter some bumps along the way, but he'll be called upon as a frontline starter from the get-go in 2014.
Regardless of whether Pittsburgh keeps its front office intact moving forward, Cole has a decent chance of cracking the team's rotation by the end of 2013. Not even the stingy Pirates could keep the top overall draft pick from 2011 at High-A for all of 2012. Cole began the year with Bradenton, where he compiled a 2.69 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 67 innings. His 69:21 K:BB helped make the decision to promote him to Double-A any easy one. Pitching for the Curve, Cole registered a 2.90 ERA and 1.31 WHIP in 59 frames, to go along with a 60:23 BB:K. He hasn't looked elite in big showcases such as the 2011 AFL Rising Stars Game and 2012 Futures Game, but he's proven otherwise consistent. To think that his 100-mph fastball (which borders on the flat side) might be no better than his third best pitch is a good problem to have.
Time will tell whether the Pirates made the right move selecting Cole first overall in the 2011 draft, but his good size, downward plane and right-handed delivery dovetail perfectly with the profile of general manager Neal Huntington's ideal starting pitcher. The 6-foot-4 power hurler hit 100 mph regularly in the Arizona Fall League and offers a plus slider and changeup. Cole never put up dominating numbers at UCLA and was actually outpitched by fellow first-round pick Trevor Bauer. His pedigree dates to high school, however, when he was selected in the first round by the Yankees in 2008. Pittsburgh does not typically advance prospects quickly, making it unlikely that Cole sees the major leagues until 2013, at the earliest.
More Fantasy News
Start pushed to Friday
PHouston Astros
September 17, 2018
Cole is scheduled to start Friday against the Angels, Jake Kaplan of The Athletic reports.
ANALYSIS
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Gets win No. 14
PHouston Astros
September 12, 2018
Cole (14-5) allowed two runs on three hits and four walks while striking out nine to pick up the win against Detroit on Wednesday.
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Fans eight in no-decision
PHouston Astros
September 7, 2018
Cole didn't factor into the decision in Friday's 6-3 win over the Red Sox, allowing two runs on five hits and two walks over six innings while striking out eight.
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Strikes out nine
PHouston Astros
September 2, 2018
Cole (13-5) allowed two earned runs on six hits and three walks while striking out nine across 5.2 innings to earn the win Sunday against the Angels.
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Rebounds from rough start in win
PHouston Astros
August 27, 2018
Cole (12-5) allowed four runs on four hits and two walks across six innings to earn the win Monday against the Athletics. He struck out eight.
ANALYSIS
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