Kelvin Herrera
Kelvin Herrera
28-Year-Old PitcherRP
Washington Nationals
10-Day DL
Injury Foot
Est. Return 12/1/2018
2018 Fantasy Outlook
Entering 2017, Herrera was expected to be a reliable closer, based on a solid five-year run as one of the best setup men in the game. He recorded a 2.57 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 106 holds in that span, with 360 whiffs in 354.1 innings, closing 12 games in 2016. However, a big drop in strikeouts with an increase in walks and homers resulted in a subpar season, and he was ultimately stripped of ninth-inning duties down the stretch. That said, coming out of the break, Herrera seemed to turn it around, until he strained his forearm in mid-August. Even pitching hurt, Herrera surrendered only two of seven homers in the second half. Curiously, Herrera’s fastball velocity was normal, but he threw his slider four-to-five mph faster while adding two mph to his changeup, rendering both much less effective than previous seasons. The cost-conscious Royals will likely give Herrera another chance for saves, if only to build up his trade value. Invest with care. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
#193
ADP
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$Agreed to a one-year, $7.937,500 deal with the Royals in January of 2018, avoiding arbitration.
Undergoes season-ending foot surgery
PWashington Nationals
Foot
September 2, 2018
Herrera underwent season-ending surgery Thursday to repair a torn ligament in his left foot, Chelsea Janes of The Washington Post reports.
ANALYSIS
A timeline for Herrera's recovery hasn't been revealed, but the Nationals relayed that the reliever's procedure went as expected. The foot injury spells a disappointing end to a bounce-back campaign for Herrera, who submitted a 2.44 ERA and 1.20 WHIP and notched 17 saves in 19 chances over his 48 appearances between Kansas City and Washington.
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Pitching Stats
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Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2016
 
 
-1%
BAA vs RHP
2018
 
 
-13%
BAA vs LHP
2017
 
 
-19%
BAA vs RHP
2016
 
 
-8%
BAA vs LHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2016vs Left .239 361 88 30 78 15 3 9
Since 2016vs Right .237 365 92 12 82 15 4 12
2018vs Left .230 80 20 5 17 2 1 3
2018vs Right .265 104 18 5 26 2 0 3
2017vs Left .282 136 28 17 33 6 2 4
2017vs Right .229 123 28 3 27 6 4 5
2016vs Left .206 145 40 8 28 7 0 2
2016vs Right .223 138 46 4 29 7 0 4
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Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2016
 
 
-56%
ERA on Road
2018
 
 
-62%
ERA on Road
2017
 
 
-71%
ERA on Road
2016
 
 
-28%
ERA on Road
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2016Home 4.29 1.26 94.1 5 9 26 8.5 2.3 1.3
Since 2016Away 1.88 1.02 81.1 2 3 29 10.1 2.0 0.8
2018Home 3.42 1.23 23.2 1 2 9 6.5 2.3 1.5
2018Away 1.31 1.16 20.2 1 1 8 9.1 1.7 0.9
2017Home 6.09 1.47 34.0 3 3 13 8.5 2.9 1.6
2017Away 1.78 1.18 25.1 0 0 13 8.5 3.2 1.1
2016Home 3.19 1.09 36.2 1 4 4 9.8 1.7 1.0
2016Away 2.29 0.82 35.1 1 2 8 11.7 1.3 0.5
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Stat Review
How does Kelvin Herrera compare to other relievers?
This section compares his stats with all relief pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 30 innings). The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.
K/BB
3.80
 
K/9
7.7
 
BB/9
2.0
 
HR/9
1.2
 
Fastball
96.5 mph
 
ERA
2.44
 
WHIP
1.20
 
BABIP
.298
 
GB/FB
0.85
 
Strand %
87.2%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
For the fourth straight season, Herrera registered at least 20 holds, joining Tony Watson as the only relievers to accomplish the feat. Skills-wise, Herrera took his game to a new level, combining a return to a double-digit strikeout rate with a precipitous drop in walks. Integral to Herrera's improvement was throwing fewer fastballs, dropping from 75 percent heaters to 60, while introducing a plus slider to his arsenal. Herrera's fantasy owners got a bonus when the dominant righty assumed closing duties while Wade Davis was on the disabled list, converting all 10 of his save opportunities in that span. With Davis getting dealt to the reigning world champs in the offseason, the ninth inning will belong to Herrera going forward. He was useful even when he was not getting saves on a regular basis, and now he should be viewed as a top-10 closer, as he has the skills and has shown himself capable of handling the role.
Herrera has now posted two straight stellar seasons and is a major reason for the success of the Kansas City bullpen. He led the team in holds at 21 and struck out 64 batters in 69 innings, which led to the first All-Star selection of his career. Herrera throws in the upper-90s and complements it with a changeup in the upper-80s, which makes him very tough to hit. He will likely continue to fire bullets at the back end of the Kansas City bullpen in 2016.
Herrera was nearly untouchable in the second half of 2014, allowing just two earned runs after the All-Star break and failing to surrender a single home run on his way to posting a spectacular 1.41 ERA. A 3.50 xFIP suggests that his home ballpark and 85.5% strand rate may have partially contributed to that earned run average, however, and it's also worth noting his .274 BABIP represented a three-year low. The right-handed reliever relied more on his fastball than in any other of his major league seasons, and rightfully so, as he was able to blow by hitters and often hit triple-digits on the radar gun. Despite the improved ratio numbers, Herrera's strikeout rate dipped a bit last season, as he fanned nearly three less batters per nine innings than he did in his career-best 2013 campaign. He's once again in line to take on a seventh-inning role in front of Wade Davis and closer Greg Holland in 2015, which likely limits his fantasy value to leagues that count holds. However, if either Holland or Davis succumb to injury or a severe cold streak, Herrera would then be a solid candidate for an immediate add.
After an outstanding showing in 2012, Herrera was slated to bridge the gap between middle relief and closer Greg Holland and man the eighth inning. However, while his strikeout rate climbed to an impressive 30.2%, command issues haunted him regularly on the hill. His K/9 jumped from a 2.2 to 3.2 in 2013, he continuously fell behind in counts and often just served the ball up over the plate, which resulted in a disastrous 18 percent HR/FB. The Royals worked hard at trying to correct the issues, sending him down to the minors on more than one occasion, but ultimately deemed the problem more mental than mechanical. He enjoyed a fantastic month of August, but fell back into his struggles once again to close out the season. Herrera is just 24 years old and has far too much promise to put much stock into one bad season. Look for him to get back on track in 2014 and return to the level of dominance that made him one of the more feared relievers in 2012.
When Herrera raced through the Royals system, going from High-A to the majors in a single season back in 2011, the hope was that he would provide strong bullpen support in 2012, but expectations were still kept in check. After a strong spring, Herrera earned himself a permanent spot in the bullpen and went on to have a fantastic season, finishing up with a 2.35 ERA and 77 strikeouts over 84.1 innings. He posted a 3.7 K/BB, a 0.4 HR/9 and an extremely impressive 80.9 percent strand rate which was why he was Ned Yost's most trusted reliever and made a team-high 76 appearances. Herrera will likely remain in his setup role to open the 2013 season but with 98 mph heat and a very deceptive 87 mph changeup, do not be surprised if he is mentioned as a candidate for saves if the Royals need closer help at some point.
Herrera saw all that the Royals farm system had to offer in 2011, as he spent time at High-A Wilmington, Double-A Northwest Arkansas and Triple-A Omaha, before eventually getting a cup of espresso in the majors. Pitching solely out of the bullpen, Herrera racked up 70 strikeouts and 15 walks with a 1.60 ERA over 67.2 innings in his minor league travels. Armed with a 96-mph fastball that he can command for strikes, Herrera was named the Pitcher of the Year in the Royals minor league system. Only 22, he's ready to help in the bullpen, possibly even at the back end of it in a setup role this season.
More Fantasy News
Back on disabled list
PWashington Nationals
Foot
August 27, 2018
Herrera was placed on the 10-day disabled list with a torn Lisfranc ligament in his left foot Monday, Dan Kolko of MASN Sports reports.
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Headed for X-rays on foot
PWashington Nationals
Foot
August 26, 2018
Nationals manager Dave Martinez relayed that Herrera is dealing with a left foot injury and will undergo X-rays later Sunday, Jorge Castillo of The Washington Post reports.
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Carted off with leg injury
PWashington Nationals
Lower Leg
August 26, 2018
Herrera was carted off the field during his appearance in Sunday's game against the Mets after suffering an apparent left lower-leg injury, Dan Kolko of MASN Sports reports.
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Throws perfect ninth inning in return
PWashington Nationals
August 22, 2018
Herrera struck out one in a perfect ninth inning Tuesday against the Phillies.
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Activated from DL
PWashington Nationals
August 21, 2018
Herrera (shoulder) was activated from the 10-day disabled list Tuesday, Mark Zuckerman of MASN Sports reports.
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