James Paxton
James Paxton
30-Year-Old PitcherSP
New York Yankees
2019 Fantasy Outlook
Big Maple's season was highlighted by a no-hitter in his home country, but it was somewhat abbreviated due to a tired shoulder in the summer that limited him to 160.1 innings. He improved his strikeout rate for a fourth consecutive season (to 32.3%), which is impressive for a pitcher with no true offspeed pitch. Yet, he has made a transition from a heavy groundball pitcher to a flyball one, and the transition has impacted his home-run rate. That rate doubled last season (to 1.29 HR/9), which was a significant factor in his ERA rising three quarters of a run over 2017. Health remains the risk with Paxton as the 160.1 innings last season were a career high. He went into the offseason with a commitment to bring a changeup into 2019, so watch for it in spring training -- he needs it. Twenty of his homers allowed were hit by righties, so adding a pitch that fades from them is needed, especially with the relocation to Yankee Stadium and the American League East. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
Add To Watchlist
$Signed a one-year, $8.58 million contract with the Yankees in January of 2019, avoiding arbitration.
Earns fourth straight victory
PNew York Yankees
August 17, 2019
Paxton (9-6) allowed four runs on six hits with three walks and four strikeouts across five innings but was credited with the win against the Indians on Saturday.
ANALYSIS
The outing ended a string of three straight quality starts for Paxton. The left-hander allowed two runs before recording an out and was nicked for two more runs in the fifth inning on RBI singles by Carlos Santana and Yasiel Puig. Paxton has a 4.53 ERA, 1.43 WHIP and 141 strikeouts in 113.1 innings this season and will next take the mound in a tough test Friday in Dodger Stadium.
Read More News
Pitching Stats
Loading Pitching Stats...
MLB Game Log
Calculate Stats Over Time
Just click on any two dates.
Scoring
FanDuel
DraftKings
Yahoo DFS
FantasyDraft
Head2Head
Loading Pitching Game Log...
Minor League Game Log
Calculate Stats Over Time
Just click on any two dates.
Loading Minor League Pitching Game Log...
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2017
 
 
-20%
BAA vs RHP
2019
 
 
-16%
BAA vs RHP
2018
 
 
-39%
BAA vs RHP
2017
 
 
-14%
BAA vs LHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2017vs Left .281 316 93 16 83 16 0 4
Since 2017vs Right .224 1348 408 104 276 54 4 49
2019vs Left .302 113 33 5 32 6 0 1
2019vs Right .254 354 104 36 80 16 2 20
2018vs Left .330 112 38 7 34 8 0 3
2018vs Right .202 533 170 35 100 16 2 20
2017vs Left .198 91 22 4 17 2 0 0
2017vs Right .229 461 134 33 96 22 0 9
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2017
 
 
-27%
ERA at Home
2019
 
 
-28%
ERA at Home
2018
 
 
-21%
ERA at Home
2017
 
 
-33%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2017Home 3.15 1.11 223.0 16 10 0 11.1 2.9 1.1
Since 2017Away 4.31 1.27 181.2 15 7 0 11.1 2.4 1.2
2019Home 3.75 1.28 60.0 4 3 0 11.1 4.1 1.5
2019Away 5.21 1.57 48.1 4 3 0 11.7 2.6 2.0
2018Home 3.35 0.99 86.0 5 4 0 11.7 2.0 1.3
2018Away 4.24 1.22 74.1 6 2 0 11.6 2.8 1.3
2017Home 2.45 1.12 77.0 7 3 0 10.5 2.9 0.7
2017Away 3.66 1.08 59.0 5 2 0 10.1 1.8 0.5
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does James Paxton compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against this season's data (min 70 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
3.34
 
K/9
11.4
 
BB/9
3.4
 
HR/9
1.7
 
Fastball
95.5 mph
 
ERA
4.40
 
WHIP
1.41
 
BABIP
.351
 
GB/FB
1.00
 
Left On Base
76.1%
 
Exit Velocity
89.4 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
7.3%
 
Spin Rate
2175 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
39.2%
 
Swinging Strike
14.7%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
Loading Advanced Pitching Stats...
Defensive Stats
Loading MLB Defensive Stats...
Stats Vs Today's Lineup
Want more matchup stats?
Loading Matchup Stats...
Our full team depth charts are reserved for RotoWire subscribers.
Subscribe Now
Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring James Paxton
Weekly Pitcher Rankings: Lynn Joins the Elite
7 days ago
Todd Zola ranks the week's starting pitching as the Rangers' Lance Lynn is pitching as well as he has all season.
DraftKings MLB: Wenedsday Picks
10 days ago
Christopher Olson is targeting the Mariners on Wednesday with a Padres stack featuring Manny Machado.
Yahoo DFS Baseball: Wednesday Picks
10 days ago
Mike Barner is banking on a Brewers stack Wednesday against Trevor Williams and the Pirates.
FanDuel MLB: Wednesday Breakdown
10 days ago
Kevin Payne looks at Wednesday's short evening slate and thinks the Padres' Joey Lucchesi could offer some savings while still retaining upside on the mound.
Weekly Pitcher Rankings: deGrom Days of August
14 days ago
Todd Zola ranks the week's starting pitching as two-starter Jacob deGrom is pitching as well as he has all season.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
When healthy, Paxton pitched like an ace for the Mariners in 2017, posting an ERA under 3.00 for the first time as a full-time member of the big-league rotation. The changes were fueled by an adjustment to his pitch mix, as he nearly stopped throwing his changeup, opting to use his curveball a career-high 21.3 percent of the time. Paxton posted the best swinging-strike rate of his career (12.5 percent), en route to an increased strikeout rate (28.3 percent), while maintaining good walk and home-run rates. There is little reason to doubt Paxton's core skills as elite, but he enters his age-29 campaign without a 200-inning season under his belt as a professional (he reached 171.2 between Tacoma and Seattle in 2016). He lost time last season to forearm and pectoral strains, marking the third straight year he's required a DL stint due to an arm injury. Ideally, he can be drafted as a No. 2 fantasy starter while being paired with a more durable No. 1.
Paxton used to have a distinct delivery, in which he leaned back during his stride and pointed his glove high toward the sky. It was an aspect of his mechanics for years, but he made a major adjustment that improved his balance by largely eliminating the lean-back in his delivery, and the glove came down in conjunction. With these improved upper-body mechanics, Paxton was able to better line up the gears of rotation for his fastball, and the result was the fastest average heater (97.3 mph) of his career by nearly two full ticks. Overall, he threw his most pro innings since 2013, trimmed the walks and maintained nearly a strikeout per inning. The 28-year-old Paxton is beyond the point where we can call him a post-hype sleeper, but the improvements that he made last year appear to be legit, giving him significant upside that may still be lurking under the radar.
Paxton made the rotation out of spring training the last two years and both years missed nearly four months with an injury. In 2014, it was a lat strain. Last season, it was a strained middle finger tendon sustained in late May. He finally returned in mid-September but tore a fingernail in his third start back and was shut down for the season. When healthy, he was effective -- 12 of his 29 earned runs came in two games, leaving him with a 2.63 ERA in his other 11 starts. A groundball pitcher, Paxton has a 94-95 mph fastball, a plus curve and a good changeup. But for the second year in a row, he struggled with control (3.90 BB/9). Inconsistency has limited his K:BB to an ugly sub-2.00, and better command would likely improve his 7.5 K/9. Paxton will be back in the rotation this year as long as he's healthy, but he's 27 now and needs to take the next step with his control and command to fulfill his potential.
Paxton earned a rotation job last season after a solid spring, but just two starts into the year he suffered a lat strain that sidelined him the next four months. When he returned, he justified his prospect status, allowing two runs or fewer in nine of 11 starts. A nine-run, six-walk disaster against the Blue Jays in late September ruined his final numbers, but overall he had a promising season. Paxton's fastball averaged 94.8 mph, and his curveball proved to be the plus pitch that was expected. A groundball pitcher, Paxton needs to continue to improve his control. The Mariners would like to add another starting pitcher this season, but Paxton should still have a place in the rotation.
Paxton had an up-and-down year at Triple-A Tacoma, but it only took him four September starts with Seattle to show that he belongs in the 2014 rotation. Small sample size, yes, but the left-hander pitched two scoreless outings, including a four-hit, 10-strikeout, seven-inning shutout of the Royals in his final start. Paxton is a groundball pitcher with a mid-90s fastball. When he keeps the ball down, he's tough to hit, as right-handers found out to the tune of a .141 BAA last year. He gets into trouble when he loses command of the fastball, which is what caused his headaches in Tacoma last year, but he did not show any command issues with Seattle last season. His curveball is a potential plus-pitch, and he mixes in an effective changeup. Whether Paxton actually makes the rotation depends on various factors – the team's offseason moves, spring training, etc. But there's little doubt he is ready.
Paxton's path to the majors was a bit steeper last year than perhaps first thought heading into spring training. A knee injury caused him missed time and problems early in the year. He struggled with control and saw his command within the strikezone lacking as well, unable to consistently hit his spots. Once he got healthy, though, he looked every bit the top-prospect pitcher most expected. In the second half, he posted a a 58:22 K:BB ratio over 11 starts with a 2.40 ERA at Double-A Jackson. Paxton overpowers batters with a mid-90s fastball, but it was the development of his curve and changeup last season that really impressed. He heads to spring training this season with a legitimate chance of making the big-league rotation. The Mariners, though, have plenty of in-house options, which likely will leave Paxton at Triple-A waiting for his chance in Seattle.
One of the organization's top prospects, Paxton made his pro debut last season at Low-A Clinton and blew away the competition with 80 strikeouts in 56 innings. He then made a seamless transition from the Midwest League to Double-A Jackson in July, totaling 51 strikeouts in 39 innings with a 1.85 ERA. The 23-year-old lefty has a strong fastball/curveball combination and induces his share of groundballs, posting a 1.53 GO/AO last season. Paxton enters 2012 with a shot at the major league rotation in spring training. The Mariners likely will let him percolate at Triple-A Tacoma to at least start the year. Don't be surprised, though, if he's in Seattle by summer. Keep track of his progress and get ready to pounce, as the 6-foot-4 Paxton has tremendous upside.
More Fantasy News
Strikes out seven in win
PNew York Yankees
August 12, 2019
Paxton (8-6) allowed three runs on five hits with two walks and seven strikeouts across six innings while earning a victory against the Orioles on Monday.
ANALYSIS
Subscribe now to instantly reveal our take on this news.
Strikes out seven in win
PNew York Yankees
August 7, 2019
Paxton (7-6) gave up one run on five hits and one walk while striking out seven through 6.2 innings to take the win over the Orioles on Wednesday.
ANALYSIS
Subscribe now to instantly reveal our take on this news.
Snags sixth victory
PNew York Yankees
August 2, 2019
Paxton (6-6) earned the win after allowing two runs on two hits and three walks while striking out six over six innings Friday against the Red Sox.
ANALYSIS
Subscribe now to instantly reveal our take on this news.
Tosses up four homers
PNew York Yankees
July 26, 2019
Paxton (5-6) allowed seven runs with nine hits, zero walks and nine strikeouts across four innings while taking a loss against the Red Sox on Friday.
ANALYSIS
Subscribe now to instantly reveal our take on this news.
Suffers fifth loss
PNew York Yankees
July 21, 2019
Paxton (5-5) allowed seven runs (four earned) on five hits with three walks and six strikeouts over just 3.1 innings while taking a loss against the Rockies on Sunday.
ANALYSIS
Subscribe now to instantly reveal our take on this news.