Bryce Harper
Bryce Harper
26-Year-Old OutfielderOF
 Free Agent  
Free Agent
2018 Fantasy Outlook
Harper seemed well on his way toward winning another MVP before he stepped on a slippery base in August and suffered a bone bruise to his knee. He finished 16th in average exit velocity (min. 200 at-bats) and 28th in barrel rate (7.7 Brls/PA, min. 190 BBE) according to Statcast, resulting in a .540 xSLG. His strikeout and walk rates both went in the wrong direction -- his BB/K fell from 0.92 to 0.69 -- but Harper hit lefties better, improving his average and OBP against southpaws by 85 points and 31 points, respectively. Harper didn't run last season and that part of his game may not come back under new manager Dave Martinez, and the injury history is starting to mount, but Harper is just a few years removed from one of the all-time great seasons in MLB history. Oh, and he's still just 25. Do not let Harper fall outside of the top 10. Read Past Outlooks
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$Signed a one-year, $13.63 million contract with the Nationals in January of 2017, avoiding arbitration.
Officially enters free agency
OFFree Agent  
November 12, 2018
Harper declined the Nationals' one-year, $17.9 million qualifying offer and became a free agent Monday, Mark Zuckerman of MASN Sports reports.
ANALYSIS
Nobody expected Harper to accept this offer, as the 26-year-old superstar is looking to sign what is likely to be the largest free-agent contract of the offseason. While he got off to a slow start in 2018, Harper still finished the season with an .889 OPS, 34 homers and 100 RBI while leading the majors with 130 walks.
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Batting Stats
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Left/Right Batting Splits
Since 2016
 
 
+15%
OPS vs RHP
2018
 
 
+5%
OPS vs RHP
2017
 
 
+36%
OPS vs RHP
2016
 
 
+9%
OPS vs RHP
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2016vs Left .812 519 64 19 76 9 .257 .358 .453
Since 2016vs Right .932 1295 218 68 197 29 .271 .405 .527
2018vs Left .857 218 27 9 36 4 .247 .385 .471
2018vs Right .904 477 76 25 64 9 .250 .396 .508
2017vs Left .802 129 22 3 13 1 .311 .357 .445
2017vs Right 1.087 363 73 26 74 3 .322 .433 .654
2016vs Left .764 172 15 7 27 4 .226 .326 .438
2016vs Right .833 455 69 17 59 17 .250 .391 .442
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Home/Away Batting Splits
Since 2016
 
 
+1%
OPS at Home
2018
 
 
+10%
OPS at Home
2017
 
 
+11%
OPS on Road
2016
 
 
+1%
OPS on Road
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2016Home .900 894 143 41 134 23 .269 .393 .508
Since 2016Away .894 920 139 46 139 15 .264 .390 .503
2018Home .932 352 58 17 50 9 .266 .401 .532
2018Away .844 343 45 17 50 4 .231 .385 .459
2017Home .956 256 43 12 42 2 .317 .410 .546
2017Away 1.064 236 52 17 45 2 .322 .415 .649
2016Home .809 286 42 12 42 12 .229 .367 .442
2016Away .818 341 42 12 44 9 .255 .378 .440
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Stat Review
How does Bryce Harper compare to other hitters?
This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances). The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.
BB/K
0.77
 
BB Rate
18.7%
 
K Rate
24.3%
 
BABIP
.289
 
ISO
.247
 
AVG
.249
 
OBP
.393
 
SLG
.496
 
OPS
.889
 
Advanced Batting Stats
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Additional Stats
Games By Position
Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
Harper hit .286/.406/.714 with nine home runs through March and April with more walks (17) than strikeouts (13), and opposing pitchers seemed afraid to challenge him, a trend that peaked in early May when the Cubs walked him six times over seven plate appearances in one game. Nagging injuries began to pile up though, particularly to his neck and shoulder, and by the second half he seemed to be a shell of his usual self as he hit just .226/.336/.373 with five home runs after the All-Star break. Harper recorded the first 20-20 season of his career and walked more than 100 times for the second straight year, but the end result wasn't close to what anyone expected. With a full offseason to rest and recover, Harper should be able to come out taking and raking in 2017, and given Trea Turner's emergence and the addition of Adam Eaton ahead of him in the order, health could be the only thing standing between Harper and another MVP-caliber campaign.
After a couple of injury-plagued seasons, Harper's status as the Next Big Thing was in serious jeopardy, but he stayed healthy in 2015 and proceeded to post numbers far beyond anyone's expectations. When names like Babe Ruth and Ted Williams come up as comps for what Harper accomplished as a 22-year-old MVP last year, it's fair to say he had a pretty good campaign. His biggest improvement came not when he swung the bat, but when he didn't. Harper racked up 124 walks in 153 games after recording 155 free passes in 357 games during his first three seasons, with opposing pitchers often deciding their best course of action was simply to avoid giving him anything to hit at all. As he continues his development, Harper could start putting up walk totals that haven't been seen since Barry Bonds. Harper gave him a three-season head start, but he's now right back in the conversation with Mike Trout as the best young outfielder in the major leagues.
Another season, another injury-plagued disappointment for Harper and his fantasy owners. Torn ligaments in his thumb kept him below 400 plate appearances, and even when he got back on the field, he didn't look much like a mythical wunderkind with a bat made of lightning. As the injuries pile up it's understandable to worry that he'll never become the player his draft table sticker price suggests, but don't jump off the bandwagon just yet. Over the last two months of the season, he hit 10 of his 13 home runs and looked much like the batter he was in 2013, and with an offseason to heal his thumb he should be able to come out launching bombs this April. Harper's still just 22 (nine months younger than Kris Bryant, to put that in perspective) with three major league seasons under his belt, and players with that resume are still far more likely to be stars than busts. Once he figures out the whole staying healthy business, the 40-plus home run seasons will come in bunches.
You can't exactly say that Harper had a sophomore slump given that his OPS, walk and strikeout rates all improved, and his counting stats were nearly identical to those of his rookie season, despite the fact that he saw 100 fewer at-bats. However, owners who expected him to have a Mike Trout-like explosion in his second tour of duty were sorely disappointed. The all-world talent and relentless drive to improve are still there, but the big question with Harper is whether last season's injuries were a direct result of his full throttle playing style or simply bad luck. Given the potential rewards, it's hard not to gamble on the latter.
The most amazing thing about Harper's basically unprecedented rookie season may not have been the raw numbers he put up, ridiculous as they were for a teenager in the majors, but the maturity he displayed. The kid who drew criticism in the minors for blowing kisses at opposing pitchers impressed everybody (including stodgy old-timers like Chipper Jones) with his respect for the game and his place in it, and no one has ever questioned Harper's drive to succeed. If his mental tools turn out to be as impressive as his physical ones, there may be no real ceiling on what he can accomplish. Of course intangibles do not win you fantasy championships, but building around 19-year-olds whose only meaningful comps are Hall of Famers like Ty Cobb, Al Kaline and Mel Ott just might.
Harper spent most of 2011 in Low-A Hagerstown putting up an impressive .318/.423/.554 line with a .436 wOBA and 14 home runs. He finished the season playing 37 games for Double-A, but was not as successful posting a wOBA of .332. His strikeout rate of 19.2 percent needs to improve as his batting average might fluctuate due to BABIP. His season was cut short in Double-A because of a hamstring injury, but Harper returned from that ailment and hit .333/.400/.634 with six homers and 26 RBI over 25 games in the Arizona Fall League. Nationals manager Davey Johnson made a point in December to say that Harper has an opportunity to break camp as a big leaguer, but additional time at Double-A or Triple-A could be on tap before a midseason call to Washington.
The first overall pick in 2010 did what he could to live up to the hype in a brief Arizona Fall League stint, hitting .343/.410/.629 in 35 at-bats, an impressive performance for an 18-year-old facing advanced competition. His 4:11 BB:K ratio gives a good indication of what Harper needs to work on when he begins his pro career in earnest at A-ball, but his mammoth power and uncanny hitting instincts could land him in Double-A before the season is over. The Nationals have no reason to rush him, of course, but the cocky youngster doesn't seem inclined to give them that option. A normal 18-year-old would be looking at something like a late 2013 big league debut, but with a once-in-a-generation talent like Harper we strongly suggest you bet the under on that.
Signed a five-year deal worth a guaranteed $9.9 million with the Nationals in August 2010.
More Fantasy News
Draws qualifying offer
OFFree Agent  
November 2, 2018
The Nationals extended a $17.9 million qualifying offer to Harper on Friday, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Expected to receive qualifying offer
OFFree Agent  
November 2, 2018
Harper is expected to receive a $17.9 million qualifying offer from the Nationals before Friday's deadline, Chelsea Janes of The Washington Post reports.
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Hits century mark in RBI
OFWashington Nationals  
September 25, 2018
Harper went 1-for-4 with a double, a run scored and an RBI in Monday's win over the Marlins.
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Walks five times
OFWashington Nationals  
September 18, 2018
Harper walked in all five of his plate appearances Tuesday against the Marlins. He failed to contribute any other counting stats.
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Blasts game-winning homer against Cubs
OFWashington Nationals  
September 9, 2018
Harper went 1-for-1 with three walks, a two-run home run and a second run scored in a 6-5 win over the Cubs during the second game of Saturday's doubleheader.
ANALYSIS
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