Last week, I examined the 2025 overachievers, so this week the underachievers take the spotlight. For the table, I compared the preseason ADP (average draft position) to our rankings to find which players underperformed their preseason expectations by the largest amount.
To help with the comparison, I converted ADP and the final rank to dollar values using the 12-team formula I created here. I like to use dollar values because the drop in production from the 20th to the 30th pick is larger than the difference between the 300th and 310th player. Using this formula helps to show that difference.
Here are the players and my thoughts on some player groups.
| Name | ADP | Rank | Draft Value | Final Value | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corbin Burnes | 36 | 392 | $21.0 | -$0.7 | -$21.8 |
| Austin Riley | 31 | 249 | $22.4 | $3.4 | -$19.0 |
| Jackson Merrill | 31 | 224 | $22.4 | $4.4 | -$18.0 |
| Blake Snell | 51 | 367 | $17.8 | -$0.1 | -$17.9 |
| Gunnar Henderson | 8 | 59 | $34.1 | $16.5 | -$17.6 |
| Mookie Betts | 11 | 78 | $31.6 | $14.0 | -$17.6 |
| Michael King | 63 | 380 | $15.9 | -$0.4 | -$16.3 |
| Ronald Acuna | 33 | 185 | $21.9 | $6.1 | -$15.8 |
| Dylan Cease | 45 | 245 | $19.0 | $3.6 | -$15.5 |
| Logan Gilbert | 29 | 143 | $22.8 | $8.5 | -$14.4 |
| Corey Seager | 41 | 196 | $19.7 | $5.6 | -$14.1 |
| Pablo Lopez | 68 | 300 | $15.3 | $1.7 | -$13.6 |
| Kyle Tucker | 9 | 39 | $33.8 | $20.3 | -$13.6 |
| Ryan Helsley | 89 | 376 | $12.7 | -$0.3 | -$13.1 |
| Jordan Westburg | 88 | 365 | $12.9 | -$0.1 | -$13.0 |
| Devin Williams | 69 | 275 | $15.1 | $2.5 | -$12.6 |
| Bobby Witt | 2 | 8 | $47.1 | $34.7 | -$12.4 |
| Marcell Ozuna | 58 | 225 | $16.6 | $4.3 | -$12.3 |
| Emmanuel Clase | 54 |
Last week, I examined the 2025 overachievers, so this week the underachievers take the spotlight. For the table, I compared the preseason ADP (average draft position) to our rankings to find which players underperformed their preseason expectations by the largest amount.
To help with the comparison, I converted ADP and the final rank to dollar values using the 12-team formula I created here. I like to use dollar values because the drop in production from the 20th to the 30th pick is larger than the difference between the 300th and 310th player. Using this formula helps to show that difference.
Here are the players and my thoughts on some player groups.
| Name | ADP | Rank | Draft Value | Final Value | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corbin Burnes | 36 | 392 | $21.0 | -$0.7 | -$21.8 |
| Austin Riley | 31 | 249 | $22.4 | $3.4 | -$19.0 |
| Jackson Merrill | 31 | 224 | $22.4 | $4.4 | -$18.0 |
| Blake Snell | 51 | 367 | $17.8 | -$0.1 | -$17.9 |
| Gunnar Henderson | 8 | 59 | $34.1 | $16.5 | -$17.6 |
| Mookie Betts | 11 | 78 | $31.6 | $14.0 | -$17.6 |
| Michael King | 63 | 380 | $15.9 | -$0.4 | -$16.3 |
| Ronald Acuna | 33 | 185 | $21.9 | $6.1 | -$15.8 |
| Dylan Cease | 45 | 245 | $19.0 | $3.6 | -$15.5 |
| Logan Gilbert | 29 | 143 | $22.8 | $8.5 | -$14.4 |
| Corey Seager | 41 | 196 | $19.7 | $5.6 | -$14.1 |
| Pablo Lopez | 68 | 300 | $15.3 | $1.7 | -$13.6 |
| Kyle Tucker | 9 | 39 | $33.8 | $20.3 | -$13.6 |
| Ryan Helsley | 89 | 376 | $12.7 | -$0.3 | -$13.1 |
| Jordan Westburg | 88 | 365 | $12.9 | -$0.1 | -$13.0 |
| Devin Williams | 69 | 275 | $15.1 | $2.5 | -$12.6 |
| Bobby Witt | 2 | 8 | $47.1 | $34.7 | -$12.4 |
| Marcell Ozuna | 58 | 225 | $16.6 | $4.3 | -$12.3 |
| Emmanuel Clase | 54 | 208 | $17.3 | $5.0 | -$12.3 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 5 | 19 | $39.0 | $26.8 | -$12.2 |
| Spencer Strider | 110 | 404 | $10.8 | -$1.0 | -$11.8 |
| Dylan Crews | 121 | 437 | $10.0 | -$1.7 | -$11.7 |
| Bryce Harper | 20 | 72 | $26.3 | $14.7 | -$11.6 |
| Mark Vientos | 97 | 328 | $12.0 | $0.9 | -$11.1 |
| William Contreras | 31 | 100 | $22.5 | $11.7 | -$10.8 |
| Ketel Marte | 27 | 84 | $23.8 | $13.3 | -$10.5 |
| Vladimir Guerrero | 13 | 41 | $30.2 | $19.8 | -$10.4 |
| Jackson Chourio | 19 | 58 | $27.0 | $16.7 | -$10.3 |
| Jake Burger | 116 | 358 | $10.4 | $0.1 | -$10.3 |
| Chris Sale | 41 | 125 | $19.9 | $9.7 | -$10.2 |
| Tyler Glasnow | 93 | 281 | $12.3 | $2.3 | -$10.0 |
Injuries
Almost all the names above spent some time on the injured list. Some, including this year's biggest disappointment Corbin Burnes, spent most of the season.
It's impossible to predict injuries. Pitchers who have never been on the IL could need Tommy John surgery. Others who are always hurt could return and stay healthy the whole year (see Jacob deGrom).
Instead of focusing on players who are down because of injury, I'm focusing on those who underperformed.
Star Hitter Disappointments: Vladimir Guerrero, Ketel Marte, William Contreras, Bryce Harper, Elly De La Cruz, Bobby Witt, Kyle Tucker, Gunnar Henderson, Mookie Betts and Austin Riley.
This group of hitters was going, on average, in the first 31 picks. I'll remove Bobby Witt from the discussion since, in 2025, he finished eighth overall. The next highest finish was Elly at 19th.
Here are these players' ranks from the 2023 and 2024 seasons.
| Player | 2024 Final Rank | 2023 Final Rank |
|---|---|---|
| William Contreras | 9 | 21 |
| Ketel Marte | 15 | 47 |
| Vladimir Guerrero | 10 | 52 |
| Bryce Harper | 28 | 48 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 7 | 126 |
| Kyle Tucker | 96 | 9 |
| Gunnar Henderson | 6 | 37 |
| Mookie Betts | 44 | 4 |
| Austin Riley | 137 | 11 |
In all but one case (Contreras), the batter performed great in one year and not so much in the other. No consistency. The average of their lowest ranking between the two seasons is 68, with a median of 48. If a player was not elite in each of the past two seasons, they might not live up to expectations again.
Here are the top-10 hitters from this past season and their previous seasons' ranks.
2025 Rank | Name | 2024 Rank | 2023 Rank | Max Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 2 | 46 | 46 | |
2 | 25 | 42 | 42 | |
3 | 1 | 7 | 7 | |
4 | 5 | 13 | 13 | |
5 | 4 | 26 | 26 | |
6 | 17 | 26 | 26 | |
7 | Bobby Witt Jr. | 3 | 5 | 5 |
8 | 123 | 63 | 123 | |
9 | 8 | 10 | 10 | |
10 | 39 | 8 | 39 |
Side note: I'm surprised to see Cal Raleigh finishing so high in the two previous seasons and being ignored in 2025 drafts, with an ADP of 80.
Even including George Springer's outlier season, the average of the max ranks (34, with a median of 26) is half that of the disappointments. Removing Springer drops the average down to 24. And by removing Raleigh, the average drops to 22 and the median to 20.
All those comparisons help point out that most of this year's top hitters have performed like top players in each of the two previous seasons. While you can still get burnt, like in Witt's second year, bet on previous production with early picks to minimize the risks of a letdown.
Second Year Disappointments: Jackson Chourio, Dylan Crews and Jackson Merrill
I had grouped these three together before writing the Star Hitter Disappointments section, but they fit right into that section as well.
Even with one good season, these three didn't take a step forward.
Ineffective Closers: Emmanuel Clase, Devin Williams and Ryan Helsley
There will always be disappointments when it comes to closers, and these three did it in three completely different ways: suspension, underperformance and being traded away.
Ineffective starter: Dylan Cease
Of all the starters listed, only Cease threw a full season at 168 IP. Logan Gilbert finished second with 132 IP. Cease ranked as the 15th overall starter in 2024 when he dropped his walk from 4.0 BB/9 in 2023 to 3.1 BB/9 in 2024. Cease struggled with walks in 2023, and his 4.58 ERA and 1.42 WHIP killed his value to the point that he graded out as the 329th overall pitcher.
People should check to see if the walk rate improvement was a breakout or just a normal, random low point using a rolling average chart.
Here is his walk rate's 10-game rolling average.
His walk rate did hit a career low halfway through the 2024 season, but he couldn't hold the gains. He posted a 3.5 BB/9 in the season's second half, which is in line with his career 3.8 BB.
I like using rolling graphs to see if there have been previous signs of a breakout and whether those breakouts stuck.
Defensive Liabilities: Mark Vientos and Marcell Ozuna
Ozuna and Vientos are limited defensively. Ozuna hasn't regularly played in the outfield since 2019. Among all third basemen with at least 500 defensive innings, Vientos ranks as the second-worst defender behind Yoan Moncada.
Both struggled in June. Vientos posted a .278 OPS, while Ozuna had a .550 OPS. Since neither played defense well enough for the team to need them in the field, their plate appearances shrank.
