Juan Soto

Juan Soto

24-Year-Old OutfielderOF
San Diego Padres
2023 Fantasy Outlook
Baseball is an incredibly difficult game and even players with Hall of Fame skill sets will struggle for stretches. At the end of June, Soto was batting just .224. It leaked in the media that Soto had turned down the Nationals' 15-year, $440 million offer, setting the stage for a blockbuster trade that sent Soto out west for an all-time prospect haul. Batting average, as we know, has its limitations and in Soto's case his .242 season mark is downright misleading. He still hit the ball with incredible authority and chased pitches outside of the zone at a lower rate than anyone. The Padres did not run much last season under manager Bob Melvin, but everything else sets up well for a big-time rebound in Soto's first full season in San Diego. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
$Signed a one-year, $17.1 million contract with the Nationals in March of 2022. Traded to the Padres in August of 2022.
Record-tying home run in loss
OFSan Diego Padres
October 23, 2022
Soto went 1-for-3 with a solo home run during Sunday's 4-3 loss to the Phillies in Game 5 of the NLCS, tying Carlos Correa's record of seven postseason home runs before turning 24.
ANALYSIS
Soto hit a 439-foot blast off Zack Wheeler in the fourth inning of Game 5. The star right fielder turns 24 in just two days, but he was able to launch his seventh postseason home run, giving the Padres their first run of the game. In what was a down year for Soto statistically compared to 2021, he ended the postseason hitting .239 with two homers and seven RBI.
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Batting Stats
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2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2022 MLB Game Log
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2021 MLB Game Log
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2020 MLB Game Log
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2019 MLB Game Log
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Batting Order Slot Breakdown
vs Right-Handed Pitchers
vs RHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
77
26
vs Left-Handed Pitchers
vs LHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
35
14
Left/Right Batting Splits
Since 2020
 
 
+23%
OPS vs RHP
2022
 
 
+34%
OPS vs RHP
2021
 
 
+23%
OPS vs RHP
2020
 
 
+6%
OPS vs LHP
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2020vs Left .835 530 81 22 74 2 .258 .381 .454
Since 2020vs Right 1.023 970 160 46 119 18 .302 .470 .553
2022vs Left .701 236 31 7 23 1 .210 .347 .354
2022vs Right .942 427 62 20 39 5 .261 .431 .511
2021vs Left .875 238 36 10 35 0 .280 .403 .472
2021vs Right 1.073 416 75 19 60 9 .333 .500 .573
2020vs Left 1.209 56 14 5 16 1 .360 .429 .780
2020vs Right 1.136 127 23 7 20 4 .337 .504 .632
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Home/Away Batting Splits
Since 2020
 
 
+10%
OPS on Road
2022
 
 
+1%
OPS on Road
2021
 
 
+20%
OPS on Road
2020
 
 
+5%
OPS on Road
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2020Home .909 736 108 28 82 13 .269 .429 .480
Since 2020Away 1.003 775 135 41 112 8 .302 .449 .554
2022Home .847 324 45 14 28 2 .233 .392 .455
2022Away .859 339 48 13 34 4 .251 .410 .449
2021Home .907 318 48 10 40 6 .291 .443 .463
2021Away 1.086 336 63 19 55 3 .333 .485 .601
2020Home 1.143 94 15 4 14 5 .324 .511 .632
2020Away 1.201 100 24 9 23 1 .365 .460 .741
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Stat Review
How does Juan Soto compare to other hitters?
This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • BB/K
    Walk to strikeout ratio
  • BB Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
  • K Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
  • ISO
    Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
  • AVG
    Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
  • OBP
    On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
  • SLG
    Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
  • OPS
    On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
  • wOBA
    Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Hard Hit Rate
    A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
  • Barrels/PA
    The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Expected BA
    Expected Batting Average.
  • Expected SLG
    Expected Slugging Percentage.
  • Sprint Speed
    The speed of a runner from home to first, in feet per second.
  • Ground Ball %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are on the ground.
  • Line Drive %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are line drives.
  • Fly Ball %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are fly balls.
BB/K
1.41
 
BB Rate
20.4%
 
K Rate
14.5%
 
BABIP
.249
 
ISO
.210
 
AVG
.242
 
OBP
.401
 
SLG
.452
 
OPS
.853
 
wOBA
.378
 
Exit Velocity
91.0 mph
 
Hard Hit Rate
29.2%
 
Barrels/PA
8.0%
 
Expected BA
.266
 
Expected SLG
.501
 
Sprint Speed
22.2 ft/sec
 
Ground Ball %
47.1%
 
Line Drive %
16.2%
 
Fly Ball %
36.8%
 
Prospect Rankings History
Advanced Batting Stats
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Additional Stats
Games By Position
Defensive Stats
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Batted Ball Stats
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
Soto, at 23 years old, is already arguably the best hitter in baseball. He has put up the type of stats from ages 19-22 that we expect to see from players in their prime years of 25-28, and a .301/.432/.550 career slash line is cheat-code worthy. He has improved his walk rate every year in the majors and has reduced his strikeout rate so much so that he has nearly a 50-50 chance to reach base every time he steps to the plate. A repeat of 110-plus runs should not be too much of a problem for him although there are more question marks than answers in the Nationals' current projected lineup. A rebound season from Cesar Hernandez and another solid Josh Bell season should lead to RBI chances for Soto, but the lack of talent behind him in the lineup could lead to more of what we saw after the trade deadline when the league walked Soto 29% of the time as he posted a .333/.525/.578 slash line.
Already a fantasy first-rounder before his 22nd birthday, Soto's 2020 exploits cemented him as a top-five pick, just a handful of steals away from No. 1 overall consideration. His biggest fans will take him there regardless. Soto's .351/.490/.695 slash line is even more remarkable considering he had a positive COVID-19 test the last week of summer camp and missed the first eight games of the season, catching a break that some of the Nationals' schedule was postponed in early August. The scary thing is Soto's production is fully supported by most Statcast metrics falling 90th percentile and higher. The exception is sprint speed, but he's a heady runner so maintaining double-digit steals is plausible. With an advanced eye, Soto is even better for OBP and points leagues, though some of his walk rate emanated from the Barry Bonds treatment in September. Even with batted-ball regression, Soto is a Triple Crown candidate.
Given what we saw from Soto at ages 19 and 20, it seems reasonable to say a Hall of Fame foundation is being laid. Soto was a top-12 rate contributor in the game by wRC+ in 2019, and he continued to shine on the biggest stage with a .277/.373/.554 line and five homers in the postseason. His K% and BB% were nearly identical to his marks from 2018 at 20.0% and 16.4%, respectively, and his xSLG, xwOBA and xwOBA on contact all ranked within the top 5% of the league. Soto also chipped in 12 steals in just 13 attempts. With that, he finished as the No. 13 roto hitter despite making a trip to the IL in May with back spasms. This profile is truly special and there aren't really any holes in his game. Not having Anthony Rendon ahead of him to drive in may hurt Soto's RBI count and we should probably expect a return to single-digit steals, but regardless the bat is good enough to warrant a first-round pick.
Simply put, Soto had one of the best seasons for a teenager of all time. His talent has never been in question, but the fact he even made his debut in 2018 came as a huge surprise considering he opened the year at Low-A. Soto arrived in the majors May 20 and made an immediate impact, homering in his first career start. He never looked back after that, posting a stellar .923 OPS and missing out on the Rookie of the Year award only because of an equally impressive season from Ronald Acuna. Among MLB hitters with at least 450 PA, Soto ranked sixth in BB% (16.0), 10th in wRC+ (146) and 12th in BB/K (0.80). Again, he was 19 when he did this. He handled righties (152 wRC+) and lefties (128 wRC+) just fine, so don't worry about a platoon. The loss of Bryce Harper may cost him some RBI and runs, but it also likely locks him in as the cleanup hitter indefinitely.
A fractured right ankle, hamate bone surgery and hamstring strain combined to limit one of the game's most exciting young prospects to just 32 games in 2017. That didn't stop him from reminding dynasty-league owners of his extreme upside when he was on the field. Soto's 172 wRC+ ranked third among Sally League hitters with at least 80 plate appearances. He walked more than he struck out, despite being the third youngest hitter to spend the majority of his season in that league. In addition to an elite approach and hit tool, Soto projects to provide 30-plus homer power in his prime seasons, but he won't generate much value with his legs. Given how advanced his bat is, it would not be surprising if he were aggressively assigned to the Carolina League after just 23 games at Low-A. The ankle and hamate injuries seem flukey, so while it's obviously concerning that he couldn't stay healthy in his first full season, it would be a mistake to discount him too much. All the tools are here for Soto to finish the season as a top-five prospect.
While he has not yet played above short-season ball, Soto made too much noise with his bat last year to qualify as an under-the-radar target in dynasty league drafts. He was seen as an advanced hitter with above-average power potential when the Nationals signed him out of the Dominican Republic for $1.5 million in 2015. So far, Soto has delivered on that promise and then some. He slashed .368/.420/.553 with five home runs, five steals and a 29:17 K:BB in 51 games across stops in the Gulf Coast and New York-Penn leagues, all before turning 18. It is quite rare for a player with the potential for plus power to be showing off an excellent approach and a plus hit tool against professional pitching at an age when most players are between their junior and senior years of high school. Soto should be valued similarly to the top prospects from the 2016 draft class and could follow the same aggressive promotion pattern as organizational mate Victor Robles.
More Fantasy News
Smacks two-run homer
OFSan Diego Padres
October 22, 2022
Soto went 1-for-4 with a two-run home run during Saturday's 10-6 loss to the Phillies in Game 4 of the NLCS.
ANALYSIS
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Receives Tuesday off
OFSan Diego Padres
October 4, 2022
Soto is out of the lineup for Tuesday's game against the Giants.
ANALYSIS
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Homers in win
OFSan Diego Padres
October 1, 2022
Soto went 1-for-4 with a solo home run in Saturday's 5-2 win over the White Sox.
ANALYSIS
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On base four times Sunday
OFSan Diego Padres
September 25, 2022
Soto went 2-for-4 with two runs scored in Sunday's 13-6 victory over Colorado.
ANALYSIS
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Hits 26th homer
OFSan Diego Padres
September 24, 2022
Soto went 2-for-5 with a solo home run, a double and an RBI groundout in a 4-3 extra-inning loss to the Rockies on Friday.
ANALYSIS
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