We can now put a bow on the 2025 regular season. Congratulations to anyone reading this who was able to win one or more league titles, or even place in the money in your respective leagues. I personally had to settle for the latter, as several of my teams ended up like the Astros and ran out of healthy bodies and gas down the stretch, but that is simply part of the game. When I won AL LABR in 2023, it was because my team enjoyed excellent health for most of the season. Conversely, this year, losing several big ticket items for various parts of the season made it tougher in multiple leagues to put together a competitive healthy roster, especially in the mono leagues.
I talked to several friends in the past 24 hours who were able to win titles, and many of them were hitting the F5 button so frequently on their keyboards they're now on the 15-day IL with a flexor tendon strain. It is incredible when leagues come down to one plate appearance or a single strikeout, as it makes winning that title so much more rewarding. I know at least three team managers who will be forever grateful for that Brayan Rocchio home run on Sunday as it helped each team in different ways to win titles.
Now that the season is over, we should start taking a look back to see what lessons we can carry forward into 2026. This kicks off accountability season
We can now put a bow on the 2025 regular season. Congratulations to anyone reading this who was able to win one or more league titles, or even place in the money in your respective leagues. I personally had to settle for the latter, as several of my teams ended up like the Astros and ran out of healthy bodies and gas down the stretch, but that is simply part of the game. When I won AL LABR in 2023, it was because my team enjoyed excellent health for most of the season. Conversely, this year, losing several big ticket items for various parts of the season made it tougher in multiple leagues to put together a competitive healthy roster, especially in the mono leagues.
I talked to several friends in the past 24 hours who were able to win titles, and many of them were hitting the F5 button so frequently on their keyboards they're now on the 15-day IL with a flexor tendon strain. It is incredible when leagues come down to one plate appearance or a single strikeout, as it makes winning that title so much more rewarding. I know at least three team managers who will be forever grateful for that Brayan Rocchio home run on Sunday as it helped each team in different ways to win titles.
Now that the season is over, we should start taking a look back to see what lessons we can carry forward into 2026. This kicks off accountability season for me, as I will begin to review the Bold Predictions from this season in October, but there are some things that I believe apply to all of us as well as some things I have written or done that look awful in hindsight. We will start there, because I am the anonymous person who wrote George Springer's fantasy outlook this season:
There were signs that Springer was approaching a production cliff in his career, but nothing truly pointed to him having this type of falloff. Springer posted the worst batting average of his full-season career by nearly 40 points and failed to reach 20 homers in a full season for the first time since 2015 when he appeared in just 102 games. The walk rate and the contact rates remained constant, yet Springer's bat appeared at times as if it still had a weighted doughnut on it. Springer has made a career of feasting off fastballs, but hit just .241 against fastballs in 2024 and .192 against non-fastballs. He no longer has the juice to get into the elevate-and-celebrate crowd as his groundball to fly-ball ratio has dropped from 0.70 in 2021 to 1.54 this past season. His 50.7 percent groundball rate was the highest of his career, while his 39.8 percent pull percentage was a continuation of the 2023 struggles. His contract will guarantee him playing time in Toronto, but where that playing time comes in the lineup is anyone's guess. He no longer profiles as a top-of-the-lineup hitter, so his production could be further impacted hitting down in the lineup as Toronto either looks to make one final push in the Vlad era or begins a tear-down after multiple disappointing seasons. Springer is absolutely on his descent down the aging curve and appears to be in a rapidly accelerating phase at this time.
Springer only went on to earn $31 in standard 12-team formats and was the 12th most valuable player by earned auction value. Springer had not hit more than 25 home runs since the fun times of 2019 and had seen three consecutive seasons of statistical decline heading into 2025. I stand by the process, but Springer is yet another reminder that success or failure is not always linear. Springer saw what was happening and made adjustments that paid off for him and the Jays this season. I wasn't alone on selling Springer short, beause absolutely nobody had the Jays winning the division this season, yet they did just that on the final day because of Springer and others on the roster.
Speaking of "growth can take any path", it's easy to understand if this final 2024 StatCast player profile didn't do much of anything to excite you:
The best thing you may have taken from that picture was a player who had a disciplined strike zone that made great contact and accepted some walks in the absence of any power. Perhaps you dug around his minor-league stats and saw this player never once hit more than six home runs in a season but had some interesting steals numbers and walks and made a late dart throw on him. This player went undrafted in my 12- and 15-team mixed leagues, yet finished the season as the 15th most valuable player in standard formats. This player was Geraldo Perdomo.
Perdomo had plate discipline and speed, but the attention during draft season was on Jordan Lawlar. There simply was not much attention paid to the shortstop position in Arizona as Lawlar's ADP of 352 was only slightly better than Perdomo's 360, yet Perdomo is arguably the most valuable free agent acquisition made this season. The lesson learned here: focus on the redeeming skills just in case something else materializes. Perdomo's plate discpline and speed was enough for a late-round middle infield draft choice for teams looking for speed, but his 20-20 season was something nobody saw coming.
Speaking of 20-20 seasons, 2025 just set a new record for the most such seasons in baseball history. The previous high was 19, which happened in 2019 as well as 2023 and 2024, but this season saw 24 different players reach the plateau:
I must ask: Which is more surprising, Perdomo posting a 20-20 season or Byron Buxton staying healthy enough to record his first ever 20-20 season in the 11th year of his career? Seven of the 25 players are under the age of 30, so we can likely expect another robust group next season given there were 18 other players who had at least 15 homers and 15 steals this season. The one thing which could stand in the way is the surprising decline in steals.
There were 3,440 bases stolen across baseball in 2025, which was a 4.9 percent decline from the 3,617 bases swiped in 2024. Opposing pitchers and catchers got better at stolen base prevention as they prevented 2.9 percent more attempts in 2025 than in 2024. The 77.7 percent success rate is the lowest of the past three seasons, and this was the first time since the changes in the stolen base rules that no player has stolen at least 50 bases. The previous two seasons, three separate players stole at least 50 bases:
- 2023: Ronald Acuna Jr., Corbin Carroll, Esteury Ruiz
- 2024: Elly De La Cruz, Shohei Ohtani, Brice Turang
We may be moving out of the halcyon days for steals as the league sees the return on investment declining for a second consecutive season. The league could take a look at what the Mets did this season with their running game, but a lot of good it did the Mets, who failed to make the postseason despite their surprising running game.
Finally, we should once again look at saves. Carlos Estevez led all of baseball with 42 saves, while Robert Suarez was the only other closer with 40 or more saves on the season. Neither pitcher had an ADP inside the top 100 before the season and yet both piled up the saves for fantasy managers. David Bednar, Jeff Hoffman and Emilio Pagan were also each outside the top 100, yet all returned double-digit value and saved 25-plus contests. Tanner Scott, someone who went as high as 60th in Rotowire Online Championship drafts, finished with a negative dollar value after posting a 4.74 ERA and 1.26 WHIP while only saving 23 games for the Dodgers. Even Emmanuel Clase looked off earlier in the year before righting himself just in time to be suspended for the forseeable future.
Daniel Palencia and Will Vest each saved 20-plus games, while the projected closers for both teams did much less. Ryan Helsley, who was going in the top 60 overall, fiinished the season with a negative earned auction value thanks to terrlbe ratios and a declining strikeout rate. It is those free agent finds or those late-round gambles which ultimately help fantasy mangers win leagues. I know my overestimation of Tanner Scott, Liam Hendriks and Chris Martin in a Saves + 1/2 pt Holds league cost me a shot at winning, but the winning team drafted zero closers and left the draft with Cade Smith in the 22nd round plus a few holds guys. An in-season deal for Pete Fairbanks, Smith's promotion to the closer role, and a late-round dart on Luke Weaver got him enough in the category to put him over the top of the second-place team.
I would love to hear some other lessons learned or takeaways from subscribers about how you are thinking toward handling 2026 drafts. My first draft is but five weeks away when I head to First Pitch Arizona and have the XFL draft on November 7.
