Emilio Pagan

Emilio Pagan

32-Year-Old PitcherRP
Minnesota Twins
2023 Fantasy Outlook
Pagan was among the candidates to close for the Padres last spring, but San Diego sent him packing in an Opening Day trade with Minnesota. Taylor Rogers' departure created a void at closer for the Twins, but Rocco Baldelli announced that the newly-acquired Pagan would be part of a committee. Showcasing an improved strikeout rate (12.0 K/9), the veteran ended up recording nine of the Twins' 16 saves through mid-June, but was ousted from closing after a string of blowups later that month. Of course, home runs were still an issue (1.7 HR/9), but Pagan issued more free passes than he ever has (3.7 BB/9) en-route to a career-worst 1.37 WHIP. He has one more year on his contract with Minnesota and is unlikely to be in the team's conversation for saves in 2023. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
#600
ADP
$Signed a one-year, $3.5 million contract with the Twins in January of 2023.
Getting start after save
PMinnesota Twins
September 29, 2023
Pagan will start Saturday's game in Colorado after earning a save in Friday's 7-6 win over the Rockies, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports.
ANALYSIS
After needing just nine pitches in an easy bottom of the ninth inning Friday to earn his first save of the season, Pagan will now turn right back around to make his first career start a day later. The 32-year-old right-hander will probably only be asked to cover the first inning Saturday for the AL Central-champion Twins. Chris Paddack and Dallas Keuchel are available on three and two days' rest, respectively, and could be capable of covering multiple innings behind Pagan.
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Pitching Stats
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2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2023 MLB Game Log
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2022 MLB Game Log
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2021 MLB Game Log
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2020 MLB Game Log
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2019 MLB Game Log
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2018 MLB Game Log
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2017 MLB Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
16
Last 10 Games
16
Last 5 Games
12
How many pitches does Emilio Pagan generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Emilio Pagan generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2021
 
 
-8%
BAA vs LHP
2023
 
 
-21%
BAA vs RHP
2022
 
 
-21%
BAA vs LHP
2021
 
 
-15%
BAA vs LHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2021vs Left .209 353 103 29 67 20 1 12
Since 2021vs Right .227 457 115 36 94 24 3 21
2023vs Left .206 120 33 11 22 8 0 2
2023vs Right .163 153 32 10 23 4 2 3
2022vs Left .213 118 37 9 23 4 0 3
2022vs Right .270 156 47 17 37 10 1 9
2021vs Left .210 115 33 9 22 8 1 7
2021vs Right .248 148 36 9 34 10 0 9
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2021
 
 
-44%
ERA at Home
2023
 
 
-73%
ERA at Home
2022
 
 
-20%
ERA at Home
2021
 
 
-44%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2021Home 3.02 1.02 110.1 7 5 6 10.1 2.5 1.1
Since 2021Away 5.38 1.32 85.1 6 6 4 9.9 3.6 2.0
2023Home 1.27 0.85 35.1 2 1 0 7.6 2.0 0.3
2023Away 4.76 1.06 34.0 3 1 1 9.3 3.4 1.1
2022Home 4.03 1.32 38.0 3 3 6 12.3 3.1 1.7
2022Away 5.04 1.44 25.0 1 3 3 11.5 4.7 1.8
2021Home 3.65 0.89 37.0 2 1 0 10.2 2.4 1.5
2021Away 6.49 1.56 26.1 2 2 0 9.2 2.7 3.4
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Emilio Pagan compare to other relievers?
This section compares his stats with all relief pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 30 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 30 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
3.10
 
K/9
8.4
 
BB/9
2.7
 
HR/9
0.6
 
Fastball
95.8 mph
 
ERA
2.99
 
WHIP
0.95
 
BABIP
.235
 
GB/FB
0.70
 
Left On Base
67.8%
 
Exit Velocity
82.0 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
3.4%
 
Spin Rate
2411 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
22.3%
 
Swinging Strike
12.4%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
After saving 20 games for Tampa Bay in 2019 and two for San Diego in 2020, many assumed Pagan would be in the Padres mix for saves last season. The closer role ultimately went to Mark Melancon, who led the league with 39 saves and had high security in the job all year. Pagan's 2.3 HR/9 was second-worst among qualified relievers and was the main reason he never really threatened Melancon for save chances. He allowed 24 barrels among 174 batted ball events, a 13.8% clip that was among the worst in baseball. These struggles resulted in a career-worst 4.83 ERA (4.67 xERA, 5.22 FIP) across his 67 appearances. However, the 30-year-old improved his walk rate (6.8%) and recorded a career-high 19 holds in a setup role. Pagan has a wide range of outcomes for 2022, which include the possibility of save chances in San Diego, or a possible trade due to his rising arbitration salary and pending free agency in 2024.
After racking up 20 saves for the Rays in 2019, Pagan was acquired by San Diego to fill a setup role in the bullpen. His campaign got off to a rocky beginning, however, as he held a 7.36 ERA along with four blown saves nearly a month into the season. Much to his credit, the right-hander rebounded from the rough start, holding opponents scoreless in 10 of his final 11 appearances and picking up two saves after both Kirby Yates and Drew Pomeranz went down with injuries. Of concern, Pagan's fastball velocity dropped a tick, and his strikeout rate (26.4%) was merely average after coming in at an elite 36.0% mark the previous season. In addition, Pagan struggled with both his command and control, registering a 1.6 HR/9 and a career-worst 10.3 BB%. Both numbers improved over the final five weeks of the season, so his 2021 success (and role) could hinge on how much of that momentum carries over to spring training.
The Rays acquired Pagan in December 2018 after he took a step back during his year with the A's, but he ended up finishing the 2019 season as the team's main closer (20-for-28 in save chances). He was traded yet again in February, this time to San Diego, where he figures to set up in front of Kirby Yates. Pagan increased his K% nearly 12 percentage points to 36.0% as he added almost two mph to his fastball, which averaged 95.5 mph. Pagan finished the season with a 2.31 ERA and 0.83 WHIP while relying more on his slider, which also saw a spike in velocity of almost three mph. The loss of the ninth-inning role following the trade to the Padres takes Pagan off the table in most standard mixed leagues, but Pagan should break camp with a high-leverage role and is still very much appealing in leagues counting holds.
Pagan was a deep-league sleeper last offseason on the back of a campaign in which he struck out 28.6% of batters while walking just 4.1%. Both marks went in the wrong direction in 2018, though he was still above average in both statistical categories. Pagan has a heavy flyball lean and that has led to some homer problems at the highest level. Following a trade to the Rays, his third team, he joins an organization with a reputation for getting the most out of its pitchers. Perhaps he will get some run as an opener. Either way he should see a fairly heavy workload, and with a fairly high strikeout rate, Pagan remains a candidate to be a non-closing reliever with fantasy value.
Turning 27 in May, Pagan isn't young, but his rookie stint with the Mariners made him a fresh name to watch. Averaging at least 10.2 K/9 in his last two seasons combined between Double-A and Triple-A, the right-hander fanned 56 and walked just eight across his first 50.1 major-league innings last year. Among big-league relievers with 50-plus innings in 2017, he ranked 18th with a 24.5 K-BB percentage, and the 1.4 BB/9 shows he's not just a high-whiff, high-walk filler arm. His rising fastball hits the mid-90s to pair with an effective slider, and harnessing his changeup could elevate him even more. Home runs probably will be an issue because he works up in the zone (56.9 percent flyball rate in his first year), but perhaps his new park will help. He was dealt to the Athletics early this offseason and may find himself in the mix for setup work or even save chances.
More Fantasy News
Continues recent turnaround
PMinnesota Twins
July 24, 2023
Pagan (5-1) earned the win Sunday against the White Sox. He didn't allow a hit or walk while striking out one over a scoreless inning.
ANALYSIS
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Extends scoreless streak
PMinnesota Twins
June 7, 2023
Pagan allowed a hit while striking out two over two scoreless innings Tuesday against the Rays.
ANALYSIS
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Returns from hip injury
PMinnesota Twins
June 1, 2023
Pagan (hip) allowed a hit and no walks over 2.1 scoreless innings in Thursday's 7-6 victory over the Guardians.
ANALYSIS
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Has strained hip
PMinnesota Twins
Hip
May 28, 2023
Pagan left Sunday's loss to Toronto with a minor muscle strain in the hip/groin area, manager Rocco Baldelli told the St. Paul Pioneer Press.
ANALYSIS
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Suffers apparent arm injury
PMinnesota Twins
Arm
May 28, 2023
Pagan was removed from Sunday's game against the Blue Jays after suffering an apparent right arm injury, Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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