Aaron Civale

Aaron Civale

28-Year-Old PitcherSP
Tampa Bay Rays
2024 Fantasy Outlook
Civale was traded from Cleveland to Tampa Bay for first base prospect Kyle Manzardo straight up at the deadline. His strikeout rate jumped from 19 percent to 29.3 percent and his walk rate dropped from 7.2 percent to 5.6 percent after the trade. Don't downgrade him because of his 5.36 ERA in 10 starts with the Rays. He had a 3.26 xFIP over that unlucky stretch and his 23.7 K-BB% in 45.1 innings after the trade was an elite mark. In fact it was similar to his new teammate Zach Eflin's 23.0 K-BB% on the season, and Civale happens to have almost an identical repertoire to Eflin. Perhaps that's why the Rays targeted him. Civale missed almost two months early in the season with an oblique strain and still tallied 133.1 innings, including his rehab assignment. He shouldn't have any notable workload restrictions in 2024. Read Past Outlooks
RANKS
#217
ADP
$Signed a one-year, $4.9 million contract with the Rays in January of 2024.
Settles with Rays at $4.9 million
PTampa Bay Rays
January 11, 2024
The Rays and Civale avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year, $4.9 million contract Thursday, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports.
ANALYSIS
It's a substantial salary bump for Civale, who was arbitration-eligible for a second time. The right-hander held a 5.36 ERA over 45.1 innings after being acquired via trade by the Rays at last year's deadline, but a 58:11 K:BB provides reason for optimism. He'll be a key piece in the Rays' rotation in 2024.
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Pitching Stats
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2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2023 MLB Game Log
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2022 MLB Game Log
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2021 MLB Game Log
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2020 MLB Game Log
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2019 MLB Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
87
Last 10 Games
83
Last 5 Games
76
How many pitches does Aaron Civale generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Aaron Civale generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2021
 
 
-8%
BAA vs LHP
2023
 
 
-1%
BAA vs LHP
2022
 
 
-7%
BAA vs LHP
2021
 
 
-16%
BAA vs LHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2021vs Left .229 685 177 44 144 30 2 24
Since 2021vs Right .250 724 136 42 166 32 3 25
2023vs Left .234 254 66 16 55 14 1 6
2023vs Right .237 250 50 17 54 7 0 6
2022vs Left .240 184 52 13 40 10 0 7
2022vs Right .257 223 46 9 53 13 0 7
2021vs Left .215 247 59 15 49 6 1 11
2021vs Right .257 251 40 16 59 12 3 12
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2021
 
 
-17%
ERA on Road
2023
 
 
-46%
ERA on Road
2022
 
 
-35%
ERA at Home
2021
 
 
-37%
ERA on Road
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2021Home 4.41 1.17 163.1 12 9 0 8.9 2.3 1.4
Since 2021Away 3.64 1.14 180.1 12 7 0 7.5 2.2 1.2
2023Home 4.48 1.16 62.1 3 2 0 9.5 2.5 0.7
2023Away 2.40 1.17 60.0 4 3 0 7.5 2.4 1.1
2022Home 3.80 1.07 45.0 4 3 0 9.8 1.8 1.6
2022Away 5.88 1.29 52.0 1 3 0 8.5 2.3 1.0
2021Home 4.82 1.27 56.0 5 4 0 7.6 2.4 1.9
2021Away 3.03 1.00 68.1 7 1 0 6.8 2.1 1.4
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Stat Review
How does Aaron Civale compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
3.52
 
K/9
8.5
 
BB/9
2.4
 
HR/9
0.9
 
Fastball
92.2 mph
 
ERA
3.46
 
WHIP
1.16
 
BABIP
.298
 
GB/FB
1.10
 
Left On Base
75.9%
 
Exit Velocity
82.1 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
4.1%
 
Spin Rate
2599 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
22.8%
 
Swinging Strike
10.3%
 
Prospect Rankings History
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Aaron Civale See More
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18 days ago
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41 days ago
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102 days ago
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2023
2022
2021
2020
Three separate injuries did a number on Civale's 2022 campaign, as a glute issue, wrist sprain and forearm tightness cost him nearly a collective three months. The results weren't pretty when he was able to pitch -- his 4.92 ERA was a career-worst mark, though a 3.86 FIP suggests he was unlucky. The upside: he had a 9.1 K/9, the highest mark of his career. Civale threw a cut fastball 34.8 percent of the time in 2022, and he supplemented it with a nasty curveball that opponents hit .124 on with a .238 slugging percentage. He also used a sinker while cutting down on four-seamers and splitters, but he may want to revisit his pitch mix given the overall results. Cody Morris could challenge Civale or Zach Plesac for a rotation spot in 2023, but the Guardians aren't brimming with major-league ready arms, so Civale should have a good chance to work as a starter if he can get back into his 2021 form.
Civale came into 2021 with a lot of hype, but ended it with more questions than answers. The young hurler re-worked his repertoire in the winter with a desire to go with more four-seamers than two-seam fastballs while adding a split-change to give him six pitches by which to attack hitters. Early on, things went well as Civale was 10-2 in his first 15 starts with a 3.32 ERA and 1.06 WHIP while holding opponents to a .226 average. A finger sprain shut him down in mid-June and kept him out until September where he closed the season 2-3 with a 5.74 ERA (6.85 FIP), 1.31 WHIP and .257 opponents' average. The fastball was particularly painful for Civale as the league slugged over .600 off both the two- and four-seam fastballs, and even the splitter had a .484 SLG against, so the transition work is by no means done. His 2022 success hinges upon that transition getting over the speed bumps.
A popular sleeper pick heading into 2020, Civale looked early on like he was headed for that breakout, posting a 2.97 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and 32:3 K:BB over his first five starts spanning 34 innings. However, things took a turn for the worse and an eight-run blowup on the second-to-last day of the season capped a disappointing stretch run, bringing Civale's final ERA to 4.74. The estimators are kinder to his performance, putting his deserved ERA closer to 4.00 over his total of 12 starts. Civale does not light up the radar gun and there may not be much room for growth when it comes to strikeouts (22.1 K% last season), but he has a diverse pitch mix -- sinker, cutter, curveball, slider, changeup, four-seamer -- and good command. He pitches in a favorable division and for a team that has had success grooming its young starters. It's not a flashy skill set, but Civale is a nice staff filler with ratio upside.
Injuries to Cleveland's rotation opened the door for Civale to make his major-league debut in 2019 and he enjoyed quite a bit of success. His 92.6 mph sinking fastball doesn't overpower hitters and he does not have a true wipeout pitch, but he can change speed and command his pitches well enough to be effective. Although 2019 provided a limited sample size for the right-hander, he pitched five innings or more in nine of his 10 starts. The 24-year-old's performance will likely afford him an opportunity to compete for a starting role in 2020. Civale impressed in his first glimpse of major-league action and could be a fantasy sleeper in 2020; the low strikeout rate will understandably drive many away, but if you squint you can see a bit of Kyle Hendricks upside here. It helps that he pitches in the weak AL Central and has a top-five defense behind him.
More Fantasy News
Abbreviated outing Friday
PTampa Bay Rays
September 30, 2023
Civale (7-5) took the loss Friday as the Rays were routed 11-4 by the Blue Jays, giving up one run on two hits and two walks over 1.2 innings. He struck out three.
ANALYSIS
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Lined up for Friday
PTampa Bay Rays
Illness
September 27, 2023
Civale (illness) is scheduled to start Friday's series opener versus the Blue Jays, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
ANALYSIS
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Next start postponed
PTampa Bay Rays
Illness
September 24, 2023
Rays manager Kevin Cash said Civale's next start will be pushed back since Civale is feeling ill, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
ANALYSIS
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Lasts just three frames in loss
PTampa Bay Rays
September 20, 2023
Civale (7-4) took the loss against the Angels on Wednesday, allowing six runs on seven hits and no walks while striking out seven batters over three innings.
ANALYSIS
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Eight punchouts in no-decision
PTampa Bay Rays
September 15, 2023
Civale did not factor into the decision Thursday, allowing three runs on four hits and one walk over five innings against the Orioles. He struck out eight.
ANALYSIS
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