MLB Picks: MLB Betting Picks for Saturday October 4

The Divisional Round of the MLB Playoffs start Saturday, including Yankees-Blue Jays in Toronto. MLB Betting Expert John Venezia offers his pick for Game 1.
MLB Picks: MLB Betting Picks for Saturday October 4
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Major League Baseball playoffs 100 percent has a real case as the best postseason in professional sports. And that magic is here. After some thrillers in the Wild Card, we've moved on to the Divisional Round of the show where hella good matchups await. 

The Saturday slate has four gems, so you can imagine I had a hard time picking out what I want. Kind of like how Chris Tucker couldn't pick just one in Rush Hour 2.

But after some soul searching, I found the play. 

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Yankees at Blue Jays Game 1

The battle for the AL East came down to the wire in 2025, so it's only fitting these two go at it again. The Yankees were able to find a way against Boston in the WC round, but will they have the same execution against the top team in the American League? The Blue Jays went 8-5 against the Bronx Bombers. It was an impressive year, especially considering they weren't a consensus pick to win the division. 

The offense was the mainstay for Toronto this season after four players had 20+ homers. Most of the lineup was productive throughout. George Springer enjoyed a monster year with 31 taters and a .309 average. Vladdy Jr. (.292 avg, 23 HR) and Bo Bichette (.311 avg, 18

Major League Baseball playoffs 100 percent has a real case as the best postseason in professional sports. And that magic is here. After some thrillers in the Wild Card, we've moved on to the Divisional Round of the show where hella good matchups await. 

The Saturday slate has four gems, so you can imagine I had a hard time picking out what I want. Kind of like how Chris Tucker couldn't pick just one in Rush Hour 2.

But after some soul searching, I found the play. 

Cash in on the best sportsbook promos available at the best MLB betting sites this baseball season. The BetMGM bonus code gets new players one of the best welcome bonuses in the industry.

Yankees at Blue Jays Game 1

The battle for the AL East came down to the wire in 2025, so it's only fitting these two go at it again. The Yankees were able to find a way against Boston in the WC round, but will they have the same execution against the top team in the American League? The Blue Jays went 8-5 against the Bronx Bombers. It was an impressive year, especially considering they weren't a consensus pick to win the division. 

The offense was the mainstay for Toronto this season after four players had 20+ homers. Most of the lineup was productive throughout. George Springer enjoyed a monster year with 31 taters and a .309 average. Vladdy Jr. (.292 avg, 23 HR) and Bo Bichette (.311 avg, 18 HR) were also huge contributors. The Jays had several more productive seasons from other players as well. 

The pitching was solid, not great, but there's still talented arms they have to trot out. Kevin Gausman is still the ace of this staff, so he gets the ball in Game 1. The Gaus was basically a 3.60 ERA with 189 K's in 193 innings, which embodies the "solid, not great" outlook. In four starts against the Yanks this season, he pitched to a 3.97 ERA and .202 OBA. 

Though Gausman hasn't had crazy success in the postseason over his career (4.91 ERA), there's reason to believe he can give his team a chance to win on Saturday. Clearly, Aaron Judge is the priority coming off another MVP type of campaign that saw him bat .331 with 53 tanks. But, I don't know if I'm sold on the rest of the Yankees lineup. I know, on paper, there were guys that had big seasons like... Trent Grisham (34 homers, absolutely wild), Cody Bellinger 29 HR), Jazz Chisholm Jr. (30/30). But, do they have that guy than can be clutch like Juan Soto was last season? 

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Some bad defense from Boston helped them score four runs in both Games 2 and 3, but it overall looked a little lackluster. Now, on the road in the postseason, I think a team that has a lot of swing and miss in the lineup is prone to going cold. The teams that don't consistently put the ball in play in October are often the ones that get bounced. Gausman still has some heavy swing and miss pitching style left in his game, so there's reason to believe he'll be able to go five or six innings allowing four or less runs.

Luis Gil missed a lot of 2025 with injury. He's done well overall in a small sample size since his return, even having a 6 IP, 1 ER outing against Toronto in early September. The free passes are still an issue for him at this point in his career (33 BB in 57 IP in 2025, 77 BB in 151.1 IP in 2024). That usually doesn't serve well in the postseason with high stakes and quicker hooks. He's also the same guy that was nothing special in last years playoff run (6 ER, 5 BB in 8 IP). 

Gil obviously has the stuff, but whether or not he has the consistency against this dangerous lineup is another question. It's a Toronto offense that led the MLB in average (.265), hits (1,461), and OBP (.333), but were also top five in runs, doubles, OPS, and RBI. Also having the second fewest strikeouts. It's a loaded offense with boppers at every turn.

Divisional postseason matchups are great because these two teams know each other well. I'm expecting this to go at least four games. With a little extra rest and home field advantage, I give the slight edge to Toronto in Game 1.

MLB Best Bet

  • Blue Jays ML (-124 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
John Venezia has covered the NFL, MLB, and College Baseball for betting and fantasy for more than six years. His recent stints include NBC Sports, Bet Karma, Bettor Sports Network, and Fantasy Life.
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