Pablo Lopez

Pablo Lopez

26-Year-Old PitcherSP
Miami Marlins
2023 Fantasy Outlook
Pa-Lo answered the health concerns we highlighted last season as he took the ball all 32 times it was given to him and was one of 27 pitchers to throw at least 180 innings on the season. Yet, 2022 was a bit of a disappointment in his outcomes as he won 10 of the 32 starts for the struggling Miami club while his ERA jumped three quarters of a run from the previous season and his strikeout rate fell four percentage points. He was still tough to hit and stingy with baserunners, but his upside is still limited by the misfortunes of the Miami offense. Lopez and Kyle Wright were extremely similar from a statistical profile this past season, yet Wright had 21 wins and a 3.19 ERA thanks to 5.3 runs per game while Lopez was supported with just 3.2 runs per outing. There is nothing wrong with the pitcher, rather, the surrounding cast is limiting his true fantasy upside. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
$Signed a one-year, $2.45 million contract with the Marlins in May of 2022.
Magnificent in no-decision
PMiami Marlins
October 2, 2022
Lopez struck out seven in seven scoreless innings while allowing two hits and three walks in a 4-3 extra-innings win Sunday in Milwaukee. He did not factor into the decision.
ANALYSIS
After a leadoff walk to start the game, Lopez retired the next 12 batters he faced. Three of the five baserunners he allowed reached in the fifth inning, but Lopez got out of a bases-loaded, two-out jam with a strikeout. The 26-year-old ends the year with four consecutive quality starts, dropping his ERA from 4.04 to 3.75. He was rumored to be included in trade talks before the trade deadline, and it's possible that Sunday's outing was his last appearance in a game for the Marlins.
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Pitching Stats
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2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2022 MLB Game Log
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2021 MLB Game Log
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2020 MLB Game Log
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2019 MLB Game Log
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2018 MLB Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
91
Last 10 Games
91
Last 5 Games
93
How many pitches does Pablo Lopez generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Pablo Lopez generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2020
 
 
-15%
BAA vs RHP
2022
 
 
-12%
BAA vs RHP
2021
 
 
-10%
BAA vs RHP
2020
 
 
-32%
BAA vs RHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2020vs Left .251 732 135 57 167 45 4 16
Since 2020vs Right .214 649 207 38 127 28 4 20
2022vs Left .249 394 72 35 88 19 4 12
2022vs Right .218 342 102 18 69 20 2 9
2021vs Left .245 209 44 15 47 14 0 3
2021vs Right .221 209 71 11 42 7 2 8
2020vs Left .269 129 19 7 32 12 0 1
2020vs Right .184 98 34 9 16 1 0 3
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2020
 
 
-6%
ERA at Home
2022
 
 
-34%
ERA on Road
2021
 
 
-46%
ERA at Home
2020
 
 
-48%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2020Home 3.42 1.13 184.0 10 9 0 9.1 2.4 0.8
Since 2020Away 3.63 1.19 156.0 11 10 0 9.3 2.7 1.1
2022Home 4.55 1.25 87.0 4 5 0 8.1 3.0 0.9
2022Away 3.00 1.09 93.0 6 5 0 9.3 2.3 1.2
2021Home 2.34 1.06 65.1 3 3 0 10.7 2.3 0.8
2021Away 4.34 1.23 37.1 2 2 0 8.9 2.2 1.2
2020Home 2.56 0.95 31.2 3 1 0 8.8 1.1 0.6
2020Away 4.91 1.48 25.2 3 3 0 9.8 4.9 0.7
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Pablo Lopez compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
3.28
 
K/9
8.7
 
BB/9
2.7
 
HR/9
1.1
 
Fastball
93.6 mph
 
ERA
3.75
 
WHIP
1.17
 
BABIP
.290
 
GB/FB
1.59
 
Left On Base
73.1%
 
Exit Velocity
81.2 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
5.1%
 
Spin Rate
2113 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
22.5%
 
Swinging Strike
13.2%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Pablo Lopez
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2022
2021
2020
2019
Lopez is the type of pitcher that can make or break a fantasy team. He absolutely has front-of-the-rotation stuff, highlighted by one of the best changeups in baseball. He is quite capable of throwing any one of his five pitches to both righties and lefties and putting it where he needs to put it. The league hit below .235 against four of his five offerings and only took him yard 11 times on the season. He has improved his K-BB% each of his four seasons in the majors, and his WHIP has improved in a similar pattern. The only question mark with Lopez is health because he has yet to demonstrate it over the course of a full season. He went down in his final outing before the break with shoulder tightness and did not make it back on the mound until the final day of the season. Lopez has yet to work even 115 innings in any professional season, so you can't draft him as an ace.
The Marlins were one of the best stories in baseball last season, and their impressive corps of young starters -- which includes Lopez -- was a big reason for their success. Lopez had a couple clunkers in early September, but he still managed a 3.09 FIP during the regular season, ranking 15th among all pitchers who threw at least 50 innings. He bumped his strikeout rate up to 24.6%, a number supported by a healthy 35.1 O-Swing% and 12.1 SwStr% (per FanGraphs). The right-hander works mostly four-seam fastball-sinker-changeup, which is a mix conducive to generating groundballs and weak contact. His curveball showed flashes of coming along as a put-away pitch last season, although it got crushed when he left it out over the heart of the plate. Lopez has not hurt himself with walks with a career 6.6 BB% at the big-league level. There is real upside here although the cat's already out of the bag in many circles.
The right-hander made his debut for the Marlins in 2018, and after becoming the talk of the Grapefruit League last spring, earned a spot in the Opening Day rotation. Lopez put together a solid first half (4.23 ERA and 1.12 WHIP) before going down with a shoulder strain, which sidelined him for over two months. He struggled in seven starts after coming off the IL with a 7.01 ERA. Lopez had a 20.3 K% and 5.8 BB% and mixes in a curveball and changeup to go with his 94-mph fastball. His numbers don't jump off the page, and he could be hurt some by the Marlins moving in the fences, but he is only entering his age-24 season, so we should not consider him a finished product. He could get by as a low-WHIP groundball pitcher even if his strikeout rate doesn't significantly improve. If he can come anywhere near his first-half numbers from last season he should see consistent innings for Miami.
Lopez hadn't pitched above High-A prior to the 2018 season, but a series of good starts in the high minors saw him promoted to the big leagues in late June. He performed competently in 10 starts for the struggling Marlins, recording a 4.14 ERA before being shut down with a shoulder strain in early September. His greatest strength thus far in his professional career has been his ability to avoid walks -- his 7.3% walk rate in his debut was good, though he'd actually kept his walk rate at 5.0% or below at each of his minor-league stops. His 18.6% strikeout rate wasn't particularly impressive, however, leaving him looking like a back-end starter. It's unclear if he'll have a chance to fill out the Marlins' rotation from the start of this season, but his pitcher-friendly home park will make him a decent deep-league streaming option when called upon.
More Fantasy News
Racks up win No. 10
PMiami Marlins
September 28, 2022
Lopez (10-10) picked up the win Tuesday, giving up three runs on five hits over six innings in a 6-4 victory over the Mets. He struck out five without walking a batter.
ANALYSIS
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Settles for no-decision Tuesday
PMiami Marlins
September 21, 2022
Lopez didn't factor into the decision in Tuesday's 2-1 loss to the Cubs, allowing one run on five hits over 6.2 innings. He struck out six without walking a batter.
ANALYSIS
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Bounces back for ninth win
PMiami Marlins
September 15, 2022
Lopez (9-10) allowed two earned runs on four hits and one walk while striking out five across 6.2 innings to earn the win Thursday against the Phillies.
ANALYSIS
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Knocked around in loss
PMiami Marlins
September 11, 2022
Lopez (8-10) took the loss Saturday, allowing eight runs on 10 hits and three walks over 3.2 innings against the Mets. He struck out two.
ANALYSIS
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Rain-shortened start in loss
PMiami Marlins
September 4, 2022
Lopez (8-9) allowed two runs on five hits, a walk and a hit batsman while striking out seven in four innings in a 7-1 loss Sunday in Atlanta.
ANALYSIS
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