Vladimir Guerrero

24-Year-Old First Baseman1B

Toronto Blue Jays

2023 Stats

AVG

.000

RBI

Rest-of-Season Projections

AVG

RBI

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2023 Fantasy Outlook

It was expected that Guerrero would drop back from his incredible 2021 season due to Toronto playing full-time at Rogers Centre rather than the cozy environments of Dunedin and Buffalo, as well as the changes to Camden Yards for road trips. Factor in the mushball and his homers dropped off to where we realistically should have expected them to be, but it was surprising to see both his runs and RBIs fall back below 100 considering the talent in the lineup around him in Toronto. Whereas he hit .315 with 11 homers with runners in scoring position in 2021, those numbers fell to .267 and five respectively last year in nearly identical sample sizes. RISP production lacks year-over-year stickiness, but it was an issue last year as the league did tend to pitch around him leading to more walks (11 percent) in those situations than others (eight percent.) The eight steals were a nice bonus, considering he is not the fleetest of foot. We can call him a five-category contributor as a first baseman; he cannot quite pull off a younger Paul Goldschmidt, but who can? Read Past Outlooks

RANKSFrom Preseason

#12

ADP

Overall

Dynasty

League Majors

Bats R

Throws R

40 Man Yes

Height 6'2"

Weight 250

DOB 3/16/1999

Born Montreal, Canada

College None

Drafted 2015 TOR

Resting in finale

1BToronto Blue Jays

October 1, 2023

Guerrero is not in Sunday's lineup against the Rays.

ANALYSIS
Guerrero, who was once again near the top of the MLB leaderboard in games played this year (156), will get a breather in advance of the postseason. Cavan Biggio picks up the start at first base, batting fifth.

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Batting Stats

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2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2023 MLB Game Log

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2022 MLB Game Log

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2021 MLB Game Log

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2020 MLB Game Log

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2019 MLB Game Log

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Minor League Game Log

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Batting Order Slot Breakdown

vs Right-Handed Pitchers

vs RHP

vs Left-Handed Pitchers

vs LHP

Left/Right Batting Splits

Since 2021

+7%

OPS vs RHP

2023

+3%

OPS vs RHP

2022

+18%

OPS vs RHP

2021

+8%

OPS vs RHP

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2021vs Left	.824	419	60	17	40	4	.277	.379	.444
Since 2021vs Right	.880	1667	231	89	262	13	.285	.357	.523
2023vs Left	.766	124	14	2	9	2	.284	.403	.363
2023vs Right	.792	558	64	24	85	3	.260	.332	.460
2022vs Left	.711	122	13	4	12	1	.245	.320	.391
2022vs Right	.841	584	77	28	85	7	.280	.342	.498
2021vs Left	.946	173	33	11	19	1	.295	.405	.541
2021vs Right	1.020	525	90	37	92	3	.317	.400	.620
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Home/Away Batting Splits

Since 2021

+7%

OPS at Home

2023

+20%

OPS on Road

2022

+6%

OPS at Home

2021

+29%

OPS at Home

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2021Home	.897	1027	155	60	170	9	.281	.360	.537
Since 2021Away	.842	1059	136	46	132	8	.285	.363	.479
2023Home	.716	336	39	10	46	3	.238	.324	.391
2023Away	.858	346	39	16	48	2	.289	.364	.494
2022Home	.842	345	46	19	55	3	.273	.330	.511
2022Away	.795	361	44	13	42	5	.276	.346	.449
2021Home	1.133	346	70	31	69	3	.332	.425	.708
2021Away	.875	352	53	17	42	1	.291	.378	.497
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Stat Review

How does Vladimir Guerrero compare to other hitters?

This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.

BB/K
Walk to strikeout ratio
BB Rate
The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
K Rate
The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
BABIP
Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
ISO
Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
AVG
Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
OBP
On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
SLG
Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
OPS
On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
wOBA
Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
Exit Velocity
The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
Hard Hit Rate
A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
Barrels/PA
The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
Expected BA
Expected Batting Average.
Expected SLG
Expected Slugging Percentage.
Sprint Speed
The speed of a runner from home to first, in feet per second.
Ground Ball %
The percentage of balls put in play that are on the ground.
Line Drive %
The percentage of balls put in play that are line drives.
Fly Ball %
The percentage of balls put in play that are fly balls.

BB/K

0.67

BB Rate

9.8%

K Rate

14.7%

BABIP

.277

ISO

.179

AVG

.264

OBP

.345

SLG

.444

OPS

.788

wOBA

.345

Exit Velocity

92.1 mph

Hard Hit Rate

36.4%

Barrels/PA

8.2%

Expected BA

.295

Expected SLG

.498

Sprint Speed

20.8 ft/sec

Ground Ball %

46.2%

Line Drive %

18.4%

Fly Ball %

35.4%

Prospect Rankings History

View Complete Vladimir Guerrero Prospect Ranking History

Advanced Batting Stats

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Additional Stats

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Defensive Stats

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Batted Ball Stats

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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers

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Blue Jays Depth Chart

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Past Fantasy Outlooks

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

All that promise was realized in 2021 as Guerrero finished as an AL MVP finalist at age 21. The baseball skills are off the charts, with his bat speed, plate coverage and plate discipline all being exceptional even to the relatively naked baseball eye. It shows up in his Statcast numbers, too. Guerrero landed in the top 3% of the league in avgEV, maxEV, Hard Hit% and xwOBA last season. What Guerrero is not is the world's greatest natural athlete, and that shows in the lack of stolen bases and middling defensive numbers even after a move across the diamond to first base. However, Guerrero did show more dedication to training and was noticeably slimmer for much of the 2021 season. As long as he takes care of his body, Guerrero can follow in his father's footsteps into the Hall of Fame one day. In the meantime, Guerrero should stand side by side with Juan Soto as one of the greatest pure hitters of this new generation.

Vladito came into spring training looking slimmer than how he had finished 2019 and many were excited enough to once again draft him in the top 50. Once the pandemic hit, Guerrero's conditioning evaporated and he showed up hefty in July and took a while to get going in 2020. His final numbers were pretty much in line with what he did in his rookie season, which was a disappointment given the high bar his talent sets for him. He has tremendous power and an excellent hit tool, but a 2:1 groundball-to-flyball ratio ultimately limited his power output. His average exit velocity is in the top 10% of the league in spite of his conditioning issues, so his path to a 25-plus homer season is rather easy to envision. Guerrero got working on his conditioning right as the season ended and dropped 32 pounds by early November with an eye on moving back to third base. He will likely be drafted in the top 50 again; maybe this time he produces like a top 50 pick.

Once he overcame a spring oblique injury, Guerrero arrived in Toronto in late April for one of the most anticipated debuts in recent memory. Given the hype that surrounded him as baseball's top prospect along with his exorbitant cost in fantasy drafts and auctions, it's not totally unfair to view Guerrero's first season as disappointing. Even so, the fact that he was an above-average hitter (105 wRC+) at 20 years old is reason enough to be bullish about his outlook moving forward. Guerrero may have set the wheels in motion for a breakout based on the adjustments he made in the second half, when he slashed .293/.349/.452 and enjoyed a stretch from late July to late August where he was one of the majors' top hitters. Despite not meeting the sky-high expectations as a rookie, Guerrero won't come at a discount in 2020, as his reputation as a generational hitter remains intact in the minds of many.

It has become an annual tradition for there to be a line in the sand, where fantasy analysts argue over whether the top prospect in baseball is worth his draft price. Of course, not all No. 1 prospects are created equal. In this case, the best hitting prospect in a generation is set to debut in mid-to-late April. He will be a second-round pick in some redraft leagues. Believers are paying up while doubters decry that anyone who pays that price is banking on the best-case scenario. It is widely accepted that Guerrero has an 80-grade hit tool. Scouts go years without bestowing that on a prospect, and some refuse to do so out of principle. He has at least 70-grade raw power, generating elite exit velocities in the Arizona Fall League. With all this in mind, nobody should be surprised if Guerrero hits well over .300 with 25-plus home runs in his MLB debut. He has a thick lower half and figures to eventually move off third base to first base or designated hitter.

An 18-year-old with future 70s and 80s on his hit and power tools (depending which scout you ask), Guerrero looks like a generational hitting talent. His accomplishments as the youngest player at Low-A and High-A rightfully inspire awe and hyperbole. Among hitters with at least 200 plate appearances, Guerrero’s 151 wRC+ ranked eighth in the Midwest League and his 179 wRC+ ranked first in the Florida State League. He walked significantly more than he struck out at both stops and appears to have experienced normal luck on balls in play. The more outlandish his assignment, the more productive Guerrero became. He will stick at third base for now, and while he could move to first base, an outfield corner or DH down the road, it has become clear that his bat will profile anywhere. He should finish his age-19 season at Triple-A, which could set him up to be next year’s Ronald Acuna, primed for a mid-April callup in 2019.

One may be tempted to say that Guerrero has impossibly large shoes to fill, but judging by the early returns at the ripe age of 17, the new "Junior" looks up to the task. He made it look easy at rookie-level Bluefield in 2016, posting a 122 wRC+, eight homers and a 33:35 BB:K in 276 plate appearances against competition that was on average more than three years older than him. Guerrero also showed an ability to handle right-handed pitching (.859 OPS), a necessity for any right-handed power bat. He may have to move from third base to first base or an outfield corner, but if he hits as expected, he will be a perennial early-round pick in fantasy, regardless of where he plays. He has a little speed at this stage but that is unlikely to be a big part of his game at maturity. While Guerrero is several years away from reaching the majors, he has all the makings of an impact fantasy option.

Few names are as synonymous with raw power as Vladimir Guerrero, so it’s no surprise that his 16-year-old son looks like quite the prospect. Signed in July of 2015 for $3.9 million, the teenager is a free-swinging power hitter that shares a number of other traits with his father. At the plate, despite being born in 1999, he has good hand-eye coordination and tremendous bat speed. He’s a poor runner, grading out as a 35 on the 20-80 scouting scale, and he possesses less-than-ideal arm strength (unlike his father, who packed a Howitzer). While that’s not to say that he can’t develop into the player his father was, the 6-foot-1, 200-pound Guerrero still has plenty of time to mature into a strong MLB contributor. He should start the season playing rookie ball, and while his dream of playing in the majors at 18 is highly unlikely to happen, he has the power to progress rapidly through the minor league ranks.

More Fantasy News

Crosses plate three times in win

1BToronto Blue Jays

September 30, 2023

Guerrero went 3-for-4 with a walk, two doubles and three runs scored in Friday's 11-4 win over the Rays.

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Homers twice in win

1BToronto Blue Jays

September 24, 2023

Guerrero went 2-for-5 with two homers in Sunday's win over the Rays.

ANALYSIS
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Returns to lineup

1BToronto Blue Jays

September 22, 2023

Guerrero (knee) is starting at designated hitter and batting third Friday against Tampa Bay.

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Enters as pinch hitter

1BToronto Blue Jays

Knee

September 21, 2023

Guerrero (knee) entered Thursday's game against the Yankees as a pinch hitter, Mike Wilner of the Toronto Star reports.

ANALYSIS
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MRI clean on right knee

1BToronto Blue Jays

Knee

September 21, 2023

An MRI on Guerrero's right knee showed no structural damage, and he might be available off the bench Thursday against the Yankees, Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca reports.

ANALYSIS
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