Juan Nicasio
Juan Nicasio
33-Year-Old PitcherRP
Texas Rangers
2020 Fantasy Outlook
Nicasio entered the season as something of an enigma after coming over in an offseason trade from Seattle, having posted a widely divergent ERA (6.00) and FIP (2.99) the previous year for the Mariners. His ERA did indeed move in the desired direction in Philadelphia, but not nearly as much as his FIP suggested, coming in at 4.75. His 3.87 FIP again suggests he deserved better but isn't exactly an elite mark, as neither his 20.7% strikeout rate or 9.7% walk rate was particularly good. It's probably safe at this point to paint Nicasio as a pitcher who will regularly post a worse ERA than his peripherals suggest, as he owns a 3.91 FIP but a 4.64 ERA through nine major-league seasons. He's been better than average according to FIP- in five straight seasons but worse than average by ERA- in seven of the last eight. Don't expect him to suddenly be pitching in the ninth inning in 2020. Read Past Outlooks
$Signed a minor-league contract with the Rangers in January of 2020 that includes an invitation to spring training.
Joins Rangers
PTexas Rangers  NRI
January 18, 2020
Nicasio signed a minor-league deal with the Rangers on Saturday that includes an invitation to spring training, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports.
ANALYSIS
Nicasio spent 2019 with the Phillies and picked up 10 holds, but his overall numbers were subpar with a 4.75 ERA, 1.65 WHIP and 45:21 K:BB across 47.1 innings. The 33-year-old is a strong bet to crack the Opening Day roster with a solid showing in spring training.
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Pitching Stats
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2019
2018
2017
2019 MLB Game Log
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2018 MLB Game Log
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2017 MLB Game Log
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Minor League Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
18
Last 10 Games
17
Last 5 Games
12
How many pitches does Juan Nicasio generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Juan Nicasio generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2017
 
 
-12%
BAA vs LHP
2019
 
 
-10%
BAA vs LHP
2018
 
 
-16%
BAA vs LHP
2017
 
 
-7%
BAA vs LHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2017vs Left .246 284 92 18 64 15 1 6
Since 2017vs Right .281 407 78 28 104 25 2 9
2019vs Left .279 80 18 11 19 5 0 2
2019vs Right .309 137 27 10 38 8 1 2
2018vs Left .278 75 30 1 20 5 0 3
2018vs Right .330 108 23 4 33 8 1 3
2017vs Left .208 129 44 6 25 5 1 1
2017vs Right .224 162 28 14 33 9 0 4
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2017
 
 
-33%
ERA at Home
2019
 
 
-39%
ERA at Home
2018
 
 
-47%
ERA at Home
2017
Even Split
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2017Home 3.33 1.23 83.2 2 4 5 11.0 2.2 1.0
Since 2017Away 4.96 1.42 78.0 6 10 3 7.8 3.0 0.7
2019Home 3.57 1.46 22.2 0 1 0 10.7 3.2 0.4
2019Away 5.84 1.82 24.2 2 2 1 6.6 4.7 1.1
2018Home 4.30 1.13 23.0 0 1 0 13.3 0.8 2.0
2018Away 8.05 1.68 19.0 1 5 1 9.0 1.4 0.5
2017Home 2.61 1.16 38.0 2 2 5 9.7 2.4 0.7
2017Away 2.62 0.99 34.1 3 3 1 8.1 2.6 0.5
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Juan Nicasio compare to other relievers?
This section compares his stats with all relief pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 30 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 30 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
2.14
 
K/9
8.6
 
BB/9
4.0
 
HR/9
0.8
 
Fastball
93.6 mph
 
ERA
4.75
 
WHIP
1.65
 
BABIP
.375
 
GB/FB
2.00
 
Left On Base
70.4%
 
Exit Velocity
89.1 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
8.2%
 
Spin Rate
2013 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
39.5%
 
Swinging Strike
9.4%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Juan Nicasio
Mound Musings: NL East Draft Day Targets
February 14, 2019
Mound Musings is back with Brad Johnson offering an in-depth look at the pitching staff of each division, starting with the NL East where the Braves have Kevin Gausman and a deep pool of young arms.
AL FAAB Factor: Waiver Pickups of the Week
August 5, 2018
Erik Siegrist looks over the chaos in the AL free-agent pool following the trade deadline, where a thin influx of talent got even thinner after Tommy Pham's injury.
AL FAAB Factor: Waiver Pickups of the Week
June 3, 2018
Erik Siegrist takes a look at the free-agent options in the American League as White Sox left-hander Carlos Rodon gets ready to make his 2018 debut.
Mound Musings: AL West Draft Day Targets
March 22, 2018
Brad Johnson wraps up his trip around the league with an analysis of the arms of the AL West, featuring Justin Verlander and the stellar Houston Astros staff.
Collette Calls: December Transactions Analysis
December 31, 2017
Jason Collette analyzes the fallout from the notable transactions in December, including Dee Gordon, who has to to learn a new position after the Marlins traded him to the Mariners.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
Nicasio had one of the strangest statistical seasons for a reliever that we have seen in some time. He had the 15th-best K-BB% among all relievers that worked at least 40 innings in 2018. He had a 62.8% first-pitch strike rate, an 11.1% swinging-strike rate and a 2.99 FIP. His ERA in the stat capsule is no misprint; he really did have a 6.00 ERA last year thanks to the luck dragons attacking his kingdom. Nicasio stranded just 58.1% of baserunners and had a .402 BABIP, both of which were well off from his career norms. He also ended the season with knee surgery in late August, but the expectation is that Nicasio should be fine to start the season. Nobody could be that unlucky for two consecutive seasons, so expect a bounce back, and don't be surprised if Nicasio works his way into some saves eventually after being traded to Philadelphia in the Jean Segura deal.
Nicasio has found himself in the bullpen over the past few years since fizzling out as a starter with Colorado. While he didn't exactly post a gaudy strikeout rate last season (9.0 K/9), he did enough well in 76 appearances between Pittsburgh, Philadelphia and St. Louis to finish with a FIP below 3.00. A fastball-slider pitcher, he posted a 6.9 percent walk rate and allowed just five homers in 72.1 innings (45.6 percent groundball rate). He pumped in first-pitch strikes to 67.4 percent of the batters he faced and was smart about where he worked in the strike zone, limiting opposing hitters' chances to pull the ball (29.6 pull percentage). He's gained velocity working in shorter spurts and he fared well as the closer after joining the Cardinals late in the year. After signing with Seattle in the offseason, Nicasio should return to a setup role.
As a starter, Nicasio lasted only 12 games, compiling a 5.05 ERA, 1.41 WHIP and 63:25 K:BB in 62.1 innings. Opponents stacked lineups with left-handed batters, who slashed .291/.366/.568 in 233 plate appearances against him. A midseason move to the bullpen then salvaged some of Nicasio's season. As a reliever, he registered a 3.88 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 75:20 K:BB in 55.2 innings. He also set a franchise record by striking out at least one batter in 33 straight relief appearances, during which he compiled a 2.81 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and a whopping 73 strikeouts in 48 innings. Nicasio ranks behind Tony Watson, Dan Hudson and Felipe Rivero in the pecking order for saves, but he showed he has closer-like stuff.
Nicasio had an up-and-down season in Los Angeles last year. He struggled with his control to the tune of a 4.9 BB/9, and for the second straight year left-handed batters hit over .300 against him, a whopping .348. His 10.0 K/9 was certainly impressive enough, but he's not likely going to get lucky enough again to post a 2.0 HR/FB rate. He has been one of the darlings of spring training, fanning over a batter per inning while excelling at preventing runs, and it's possible that he is this year's Ray Searage reclamation success. First, he'll have to win a rotation spot.
With a fastball capable of touching the mid-90s, Nicasio has often tantalized with his gifts but has seen his productivity trend downward since his 2011 MLB debut. Though he was one of the few Rockies pitchers to avoid the DL last season, Nicasio was a complete mess at the back end of the rotation, yielding a 5.92 ERA and 15 home runs over 73 frames before the Rockies sent him to the minors. He returned to the majors in August and served in a relief role the rest of the way, where he found better results (3.48 ERA, 17:5 K:BB ratio over 20.2 innings). Alas, it wasn’t enough to convince the Rockies that they had a future bullpen ace on their hands, as he was traded to the Dodgers in November. Nicasio’s new team is hopeful the move away from Coors Field might be precisely what he needs to emerge as a useful fifth starter, but he’ll work in middle relief if he fails to claim a rotation spot in spring training.
After his previous two campaigns were besieged by injuries, Nicasio enjoyed a healthy 2013 season, but his habitual inconsistency resulted in disappointing returns. Erratic command of the strike zone often mounted Nicasio’s pitch counts early on in games, limiting him to just nine quality starts in his 31 turns. As one might expect from his failure to work deep in games, Nicasio’s walk rate spiked to a career-worst (9.1 percent), while his strikeout rate also bottomed out at 16.9 percent, the latter of which may have been influenced by a two mile-per-hour decline in his fastball velocity. With Nicasio no longer an enigma after finally completing a full season in the majors and his rate stats headed in the wrong direction, it’s difficult to be bullish on the 27-year-old’s prospects at this point. Nicasio will almost certainly claim the No. 4 or 5 rotation spot coming out of the spring, but he seems a prime candidate to get pushed to long relief once some of the Rockies’ more promising younger pitchers are ready for the big leagues.
Nicasio's 2012 season was marred by bad luck in both performance and health. After opening the year in the Colorado rotation, Nicasio's campaign came to an end after he required season-ending surgery to remove four bone chips from his knee. When he was on the mound, he was hit around with regularity, resulting in a 1.62 WHIP. However, aside from a rise in walk rate, most of Nicasio's peripherals argue that he actually took a step forward, as his strikeout rate ticked up (8.4 K/9) despite giving up an inordinate amount of hits, as his .378 BABIP suggests. Nicasio recovered from knee surgery quickly enough to pitch in fall instructional and winter leagues, allowing him to regain some lost innings and sufficiently prepare for 2013. Now fully healthy, Nicasio could very well emerge as one of the team's better starters, assuming his walk rate and batting average against fall more in line with his career norms.
Nicasio's season ended in a very scary incident on the mound as a line drive that hit him in the head ultimately required surgery to repair a fracture to the C1 vertebra in his neck. Initially, there were questions as to whether Nicasio would pitch again, but the offseason reports about his progress have been very encouraging as he shed his brace in late September, was throwing from a mound in October and started taking full bullpen sessions in the Dominican Republic in November. Nicasio showed excellent control throughout his time in the minors, while his success during a 13-start stint with Colorado before the injury (7.28 K/9IP, 2.26 BB/9IP) should open up an opportunity for him coming out of spring training assuming that he's back to full health.
More Fantasy News
Activated from injured list
PPhiladelphia Phillies  NRI
September 24, 2019
Nicasio (shoulder) was activated from the injured list Tuesday, Matt Breen of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.
ANALYSIS
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Throwing off mound
PPhiladelphia Phillies  NRI
Shoulder
September 10, 2019
Nicasion (shoulder) will throw off a mound Tuesday, Scott Lauber of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.
ANALYSIS
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Placed on injured list
PPhiladelphia Phillies  NRI
Shoulder
August 24, 2019
Nicasio (shoulder) was placed on the 10-day injured list Saturday.
ANALYSIS
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Nursing shoulder soreness
PPhiladelphia Phillies  NRI
Shoulder
August 23, 2019
Nicasio left Friday's game against the Marlins due to right shoulder soreness, Matt Breen of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.
ANALYSIS
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Exits with injury
PPhiladelphia Phillies  NRI
Undisclosed
August 23, 2019
Nicasio left Friday's game against Miami with an unspecified injury, Todd Zolecki of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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